EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAll that's left to do is wait for Australia. From the shakedown in Barcelona to two three-day tests in Bahrain, Formula 1's preseason program has come and gone, and the next time the field will take to the track will be on March 5 in Melbourne.Before we get to Albert Park, though, ESPN has pored over the lap charts and spoken to sources up and down the pit lane. From what the data tells us to what vibes each garage is giving, Laurence Edmondson and Nate Saunders compare notes and come up with a predicted running order for the 2026 season.1. MercedesBahrain testing laps completed: 714 (6th most)Bahrain testing best time: 1:32.803; +0.811 (2nd quickest)The data: Kimi Antonelli set Mercedes' fastest time of the week with a 1:32.803 on the second day -- roughly 0.8 seconds off the best time set by Charles Leclerc on the final day. It might seem like a big gap at first glance, but a good chunk can be accounted for by Leclerc having better track conditions on the evening of Day 3 and using tires a step softer than Antonelli's.One noticeable factor in Mercedes' single-lap running was consistently slower top speeds on the pit straight as it started the lap. On his fastest lap on Friday, for example, George Russell was 8 kph slower than Leclerc, meaning he had already sacrificed 0.2s of lap time to the Ferrari by the time he hit the brakes for Turn 1. Russell also lifted and coasted on the approach to Turns 4, 11 and 14 when his fastest lap is compared to those of his main rivals.That could be a quirk of how the Mercedes power unit harvests and deploys its battery power around the lap, but a comparison with Lando Norris' Mercedes-powered McLaren suggests higher top speeds on the pit straight and less lifting and coasting into corners are very possible. More likely, a large proportion of Russell's 1.2-second gap to Leclerc on Friday can be explained by Mercedes running a less aggressive energy-deployment strategy for its fastest lap.More telling for the overall picture was the pace of Antonelli and Russell on long runs. Although they didn't complete a race simulation at the second Bahrain test to offer a direct comparison with Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, glimpses of longer stints had them lapping consistently in the low 1:36s and even the 1:35s. Compare that to Ferrari's best long-run stints, which were in the mid-1:36s and low 1:37s, and perhaps the Mercedes' true pace was just lurking deeper in the data.Of course, the potential for differing fuel loads and the unsatisfactory comparison between eight-lap runs by the Mercedes and race sims by the Ferrari make it a patchy picture at best, but it's easy to see why rival teams believe Mercedes has been hiding its true form. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: It's been hard to work out Mercedes all preseason. For months the consensus in the paddock was that it would be the heavy favorite, based on rumblings about its power unit, but several figures within the team have told ESPN they felt that notion was overplayed by rivals. Downplaying expectations has been the name of the game outwardly from Toto Wolff & Co. since the start of the Bahrain test. Some in the paddock think that's all gamesmanship, and we at ESPN think there might be a smidge of that, too.Certainly, Mercedes does not seem to be as worried as it was at this stage of every year of the ground-effect era (2022-2025). The mood can best be summarized as quiet confidence, maybe with a sprinkle of historical anxiety from the memory of those ground-effect cars rubbed in for good measure. Everyone ESPN asked in the paddock put Mercedes top, even after Leclerc's mega set of laps late Friday. Vibes-wise, Mercedes seems happy and eager to start the season, if not yet fully willing to declare itself the outright favorite just yet. -- Saunders2. FerrariBahrain testing laps completed: 744 (4th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:31.992 (1st)The data: Although there are no prizes for setting the fastest time in testing, it has never a bad thing to top the time sheets. Leclerc's 1:31.992 was 0.879 seconds clear of Day 3's next best effort by Norris in the McLaren, albeit with the Ferrari on the faster C4 tires and the McLaren on the C3.But a comparison between Leclerc's best time on the C3s -- a 1:32.297 -- still shows the Ferrari holding an advantage over the McLaren at certain points around the lap. Leclerc made big gains on the McLaren in Turn 4, again through the higher-speed corners of Turn 6 and 7, once more under braking for Turn 11, and finally on the straight heading down to the final corner. Again, different harvesting and deployment strategies appear to be at play around the lap, but the overall picture looks favorable for the Ferrari over the McLaren.Long runs tend to back that picture up, with Leclerc's race simulation from Friday morning giving him a 5.5-second lead at the virtual flag vs. Oscar Piastri's race simulation from Thursday afternoon. The comparison is not like for like as Leclerc's attempt was in the heat of the day and included an additional pit stop (a three-stopper in total), while Piastri's was a two-stopper on a cooler track. One other Ferrari advantage that was not reflected in the lap-time data was the team's race starts. Lewis Hamilton and Leclerc both made rapid getaways during practice starts, which, if repeated in races, could see them lead by Turn 1 even if they start off the front two rows.The fast starts have been attributed to a widely held belief that Ferrari is running a smaller turbo than its rivals, which would make it easier to achieve the optimum boost pressure before the lights go out. It's likely rival teams will smooth out their own starts as the season progresses -- McLaren already looked consistent by the end of the week -- but it could still provide an advantage for Ferrari. However, running a smaller turbo may also come with some downsides, especially at power-sensitive tracks where more of the lap is spent at full throttle. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: You can see the Frdric Vasseur effect in full swing at Ferrari. Almost everything around the team's preseason was positive: rocket starts off the line, interesting car innovations and genuinely eye-opening times over long and short runs, especially on the final day with Leclerc. Last year was a nightmare in terms of results, but it's clear the Italian outfit already knows a long-term benefit of that lost season might be how early it turned its attention to its 2026 engine and car.Yet, despite all the reasons to board the Ferrari hype train at the first opportunity, there is almost total calm, a hallmark of Vasseur's leadership. There have been no overly excitable interviews, no playing up things for the new season. Everyone in red has just been getting down to business, refusing to speculate on what the real situation is. Leclerc and Hamilton have certainly both looked like they're holding in big smiles while talking about the SF-26.A cautionary note: The ghosts of 2022 still linger. That year, Ferrari arrived in a new set of regulations as the team to beat, winning two of the first three races. Everything imploded from there, and it has been hard for anyone to confidently board the hype train since, so perhaps it's understandable that no one at the Scuderia is getting too carried away just yet. -- Saunders3. McLarenBahrain testing laps completed: 817 (1st)Bahrain testing best time: 1:32.861; +0.869 (3rd)The data: Although McLaren was hitting higher top speeds than the works Mercedes team on its push laps, overall lap time did not seem to come as easily to the reigning world champion. Data from Norris' best lap shows he was faster than his rivals up until the braking point for Turn 4, but time then seeped away in Turn 4 itself, through Turn 11 and in Turn 13.Piastri provided a useful race simulation comparison with Max Verstappen's Red Bull on Thursday afternoon, and when slow pit stops and an error at Turn 10 were removed from the data, the McLaren was on average 0.1 seconds per lap faster than Verstappen. It's a small enough margin that it could easily swing the other way from circuit to circuit, but McLaren can leave the test happy that it has not slipped back into the midfield as a result of the regulation changes. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: F1's reigning world champion team knows it's not the benchmark going into this season, but it does not seem as though it ever expected to be, especially after Verstappen and Red Bull dragged last year's title fight to the final round of the season. Earlier in this decade, Bahrain was the scene of several calamitous preseasons for McLaren, but those days appear to have been consigned to history.Zak Brown's team now operates with the calm and swagger of one that knows it's good enough to build a title-winning car, even if it is a little off that mark going into the first race. Sources at McLaren told ESPN that it expects the significant tire advantage enjoyed in recent years has disappeared under the new regulations, but there is clearly confidence McLaren can compete at the front if early upgrades hit their designated targets. -- Saunders4. Red BullBahrain testing laps completed: 672 (7th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:33.109; +1.117 (4th)The data: Although some rivals labeled Red Bull as the benchmark in the first week of testing, the data from Week 2 suggests it is neither the fastest car over a single lap nor the fastest car over a race distance. The focus was largely on the Red Bull's energy deployment at the start of the test, and while it does appear to have an advantage out of Turn 3 and Turn 4, it is not maintained until the final sector of the lap, where the Mercedes and Ferrari power units claim back lap time on the straights.A comparison of Verstappen's Thursday race simulation with Piastri's shows he was faster on the C3 tire in the first stint, but struggled to match Piastri on stints two and three on the C1 tires -- notably because of apparent degradation at the end of the final stint. The lap times were close enough that it's possible a rerun would see a different outcome, but based purely on what we saw on track, the Red Bull appears to be just behind the McLaren and fourth overall. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: Red Bull had a very quiet Bahrain test, just getting down to business and letting the media focus on engine politics, battery management and F1's curious new start procedures. Sources have told ESPN that Verstappen is pleased with where the RB22 is at this stage, which is a win in itself given the ongoing speculation about his long-term future in F1.The group from Milton Keynes had anxiety around its brand-new engine project, but the feeling is it is in a decent place relative to what the worst-case scenario could have been. Reliability has been solid, especially when compared to what's unfolding with former engine partner Honda at Aston Martin, and early fears of a litany of winter stoppages proved to be unfounded.Red Bull clearly does not expect to have a world beater at the start of 2026, but 2025 proved you don't need one when Verstappen is at the wheel. The Austrian outfit seems confident it's there or thereabouts, albeit with obvious improvements to make as it gets a handle on life as an engine manufacturer. If any team on the grid has the culture and the talent to improve quickly, it's Red Bull. As always, write off the energy drink conglomerate at your own peril. -- Saunders5. HaasBahrain testing laps completed: 794 (2nd)Bahrain testing best time: 1:33.487; +1.495 (6th)The data: There's an ongoing debate over which team leads the midfield pack after testing and a frustratingly small amount of comparable data to resolve it. Haas is arguably the front-runner behind the big four, but cases could also be made for Alpine and, perhaps, Audi.For what it's worth, Haas driver Oliver Bearman used the C4 compound to finish seventh in the final standings at the end of the second test, putting him just 0.066 seconds off Pierre Gasly, who claimed sixth place for Alpine using the softer C5 tire. Bearman also completed a race simulation Friday that ran in tandem with Arvid Lindblad and outpaced the Racing Bulls driver, before it was bettered by Gabriel Bortoleto in the Audi running in cooler conditions later in the afternoon.There's a clear gulf to Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, but with chaos at early races and the potential for fast starts thanks to its Ferrari drivetrain, Haas can realistically target points at the early rounds. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: Gene Haas' F1 team has had a quietly strong test, accumulating great mileage and avoiding any major issues. Team members ESPN spoke to were incredibly impressed by Ferrari's reliable engine and its delivery of power at the starts, and there are no outward signs of panic from a team that has had a roller-coaster existence in Formula 1. Haas has always been one of the most reluctant teams to talk publicly or privately about where it might sit in the pecking order, having had opening races that massively exceeded expectations and others that fell well short of them.Haas, still F1's smallest team in terms of personnel despite the arrival of Cadillac, will not get carried away with anything just yet, but this seems like a group that should be able to fight for points from the start. -- Saunders6. AlpineBahrain testing laps completed: 667 (8th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:33.421; +1.429 (5th)The data: Gasly set the fastest time outside the top four teams, albeit using the softest compound tire in Pirelli's range that likely offered him an edge over his rivals using the C4. A comparison with Bearman's fastest lap showed Gasly starting the lap stronger but losing time in the final sector -- a pattern in line with a softer-compound tire offering an initial advantage before fading away. Gasly appeared to embark on a race simulation in the afternoon of the final day and was slightly ahead of Bearman's times across the first seven laps before an apparent issue forced him to return to the pits. It was not enough data to draw any firm conclusions from, but along with the headline times, indicates that Haas and Alpine are closely matched at the top of the midfield.One last factor worth mentioning with Alpine is that the team looked strong in testing in Bahrain last year only to disappoint across the whole season. While this year's car is a complete departure from last year's (including a Mercedes power unit instead of a Renault), the Bahrain International Circuit was one of the team's strongest tracks in 2025 and it could be that the performance this week is not transferred to other circuits across the calendar. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: Given where it finished last year, the mood at Alpine is very positive. The 2025 season was grueling, but the switch to Mercedes engines has coincided with a clear improvement across the board. Sources told ESPN that Alpine feels reinvigorated by a car that appears to be at the front of the midfield and seemingly on the cusp of regular contention for points.Curiously, and perhaps a great indication of how the team expects to be in a good space, is that the only point of major caution has come regarding its driver lineup. Gasly was one of 2025's standout performers and should lead the Enstone team's competitive charge this season, but question marks still linger about Franco Colapinto, who struggled massively after replacing Jack Doohan last year. Alpine appeared happy with Colapinto's performance throughout testing, but it's already clear from conversations with senior team members that opinions -- and subsequently support for the Argentine driver -- can change quickly. -- Saunders7. AudiBahrain testing laps completed: 639 (9th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:33.755; +1.763 (7th)The data: F1's newest works team was able to unlock a considerable amount of performance in the second test and looks ready to establish itself firmly in the midfield. Bortoleto set the team's fastest time in the final 15 minutes of the test using a fresh set of C4 tires and was just 0.268 seconds off Bearman's time on the same compound. The car's speed traces were a match for its Mercedes- and Ferrari-powered rivals, suggesting Audi has made a very solid start to life as an engine manufacturer in F1.Most impressive was Bortoleto's race sim against a setting sun Friday evening, which was roughly 15 seconds faster than the one completed by Bearman earlier in the day. It should be noted that the Audi enjoyed cooler track conditions than the Haas and opted for a three-stop strategy vs. Bearman's more conventional two-stop, but the platform is certainly in place for a solid start to life in F1. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: The mood at Audi was one of the hardest to gauge across the grid. There was a real "new kid at school" feel to the team for much of the test -- new Adidas threads, new sponsors and new expectations that come with being F1's newest engine manufacturer. Team members ESPN spoke to seemed satisfied with how the two weeks of testing went. Audi entered F1 to be competitive over the long term, not simply the season opener in Australia, and you can tell the mindset of the German manufacturing giant is one geared toward progression throughout the season.Understanding its new power unit and then making progress with it are the key yardsticks for Audi at this time, rather than outright performance. It expected problems with its first F1 power unit and encountered them, but seemed very pleased by the fact that its unique sidepod design was briefly a talking point among technical journalists earlier in the second week.Audi's position in the competitive order fluctuated the most depending on whom you asked, and that probably would be the same if you asked individual members of the team as well. The Four Rings brand seemed relieved that it avoided the nightmare being experienced at Aston Martin, an outcome that was just as possible for a team embarking on a new project from scratch. Audi might be slow to get going in 2026, but the baseline appears to be decent. -- Saunders8. Racing BullsBahrain testing laps completed: 723 (5th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:34.149; +2.157 (8th)The data: Using Bearman's C4 lap on Friday as a reference for the midfield pack, Lindblad's best effort on the same tire and at the same time of day was 0.662 seconds slower. The usual caveats of fuel loads and engine modes apply when making such comparisons, but in this case, it's also worth noting that Lindblad is still very much learning his trade as a rookie. Most of the lap time seeped away from Turn 8 onward, and that was despite the Red Bull Ford powertrain providing a relative gain on all the straights bar the run between Turn 13 and Turn 14.Lindblad and Bearman also provided one of the closest race sim comparison of Friday, and again it was the Haas driver who came out on top. Put them in a head-to-head race and Bearman would have crossed the line 18 seconds ahead of Lindblad, which suggests the true gap between the two teams is big, but not quite as big as the single-lap comparison suggests. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: Red Bull is clearly trying to position Racing Bulls as the company's "fun" Formula 1 team, but it should be entertaining on track as well in 2026. It has a talented lineup in Lindblad and Liam Lawson and a car that looks like it should be decent in the midfield as the starting point. Racing Bulls helped Red Bull troubleshoot the company's brand-new engine across the two weeks of testing, and the mood seems to be overwhelmingly positive about how things have gone so far.One notable takeaway from conversations with Racing Bulls team members is how much Lindblad has made a good impression internally already. The 18-year-old, who holds dual British and Swedish citizenship, has had a studious approach to his first F1 preseason ahead of a year many have predicted will overwhelm the sport's youngest competitors given the new cars' technical complexity. -- Saunders9. WilliamsBahrain testing laps completed: 790 (3rd)Bahrain testing best time: 1:34.342; +2.350 (9th)The data: There's no question Williams is on the back foot after missing the first test of the year in Barcelona, but it also seems the car is lacking the raw pace needed to resume its position at the front of the midfield. Even accounting for the missed test days in Spain, there was very little evidence to dispel rumors that the car is overweight and lacking in key areas compared to its competition.Carlos Sainz appeared to attempt a race simulation on Friday afternoon but was lapping more than a second off the pace of Bearman and Lindblad before he aborted it. That lack of pace may have been down to an issue that ultimately proved terminal for the run, but either way, it doesn't bode well this close to the first race of the season. Rather than make a step forward over the winter, it feels like Williams have taken a step back. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: The mood at Williams seems a little deflated across the board, perhaps unsurprisingly so given its late start to the year and a fairly nondescript performance through Bahrain's tests. Team boss James Vowles had made a big point that he was fine with 2023, 2024 and 2025 all being a write-off if 2026 was a success, and that ambition helped entice Sainz to join last year.The alarm bells are clearly ringing internally. The FW48 appears to be overweight and most in the paddock think Williams is in a little bit of trouble, which is never a good place to be at the start of a new regulation cycle. -- Saunders10. CadillacBahrain testing laps completed: 586 (10th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:35.290; +3.298 (10th)The data: Although Cadillac looks set to start the season multiple seconds off the pace of F1's frontrunners, the performance shown in Bahrain was hugely impressive for a brand-new team with limited preparation time. Valtteri Bottas' fastest lap was 3.2 seconds off Leclerc's benchmark, but only 0.8 seconds off Sainz's fastest lap in the Williams and faster than the best effort by Aston Martin's Lance Stroll.An overall lack of downforce appears to be the car's biggest deficit, with Bottas losing significant time to rivals through the high-speed Turns 6 and 7 as well as Turns 4, 11 and 14. But the Ferrari power unit provides a solid performance base for the team to build on as well as with the promise of fast starts at the opening races. Race simulations suggest the deficit to the frontrunners across a grand prix distance could be more than three minutes, which would equate to the Cadillacs finishing two laps down at the Bahrain International Circuit. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: Without intending to sound patronizing, the overriding vibe at Cadillac is that it is just happy to finally be here with a car lapping the circuit. It has been a long journey to this moment, and many of the people employed by the team joined before it was even formally granted a place on the F1 grid. Some talked to ESPN about being genuinely emotional seeing the car roll onto the track at different points during the past four weeks or so. Euphoria so far has come from just ticking off the early milestones of a debut season.Team boss Graeme Lowdon has said the main goal this year is to be respectable, and Cadillac was more or less that during testing, posting a decent amount of mileage. Even if there were a lot of issues throughout preseason, Cadillac's test was nothing like the calamity unfolding at Aston Martin, even though the Detroit-backed program perhaps would have had the most obvious excuses if that fate had befallen it instead. As for the stop-start nature of its Bahrain tests, Cadillac expected this to be the case more than anyone, with it all considered part of the team-building process it is still going through.Cadillac looks set to be at the rear of the grid at Melbourne, but no one -- not even the most optimistic member in the garage -- would have expected to be fighting with another team come race one. -- Saunders11. Aston MartinBahrain testing laps completed: 334 (11th)Bahrain testing best time: 1:35.974; +3.982 (11th)The data: Aston Martin's lack of running means it's impossible to know the potential of Adrian Newey's latest design or whether it will finish any of the early races this season. The Honda-powered AMR26 finished the week with the slowest lap time of all -- a massive 0.684 seconds off Bottas' best lap time for Cadillac -- but neither driver got into the rhythm of any performance running.The majority of the missing lap time was lost on the straights, underlining the weakness of the Honda power unit, but even compared to a Williams, the Aston Martin was still lacking in the corners. The closest the team came to completing long runs was on Thursday afternoon before a battery issue brought Fernando Alonso to a halt, but even those were slower and less consistent than Cadillac's efforts on the same day. -- EdmondsonThe vibes: It is difficult to convey just how bleak the atmosphere at Aston Martin's garage and hospitality was in Bahrain. Everywhere you looked there was miserable facial expressions and slouched body language. Employees looked shellshocked processing what was happening (or, perhaps more accurately, what wasn't happening) on track. Most Aston employees ESPN spoke to couldn't wait to get home and end the nightmare the two-week test in Bahrain had become.Billionaire owner Lawrence Stroll was stomping around the paddock looking enraged. The long-suffering Alonso looked even more exasperated than he has through the long and painful second half of his F1 career. Newey spent much of the test hiding away from the media, opting instead to send team representative Pedro de la Rosa and then former team boss Mike Krack (now head of trackside operations) in his place. That alone spoke volumes.Testing this year has been full of teams who genuinely don't know how good or bad things really look going to Melbourne, but Aston Martin absolutely knows where it stands, and it is not good. Accepting the brutal reality that Aston goes into the year in a fight with F1 newbie Cadillac just to avoid being last has been like being on the receiving end of an early sucker punch in the opening round of a heavyweight boxing clash. It is dead last and improvements of any significance might be a long time coming.Most tellingly of all is how dramatically and quickly the messaging from the team has shifted over the course of this preseason. For so long, Aston, dubbed "the team of the future" by Alonso himself, had talked up 2026 as the moment a new golden era began. By the end of the week, Aston's press handlers were telling the media 2026 had always looked likely to be a test year, and that 2027 and 2028 looked more likely to be when it might enjoy success. Whether those in the garage even truly believe the second part anymore was hard to gauge. -- Saunders
