Many think conference championship Sunday is the best day of NFL football, because it features two potentially great games and more focus on football than on Super Bowl spectacle.
And one of the most intriguing storylines Sunday is Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who is starting in place of the injured Bo Nix. This will be Stidham's first start since 2023 and the fifth since he was drafted in 2019.
But Stidham's rsum does have some positives. He had an expected points added (EPA) per dropback of +0.04 and a success rate of 46.1% in his past four years (149 total pass attempts), according to Next Gen Stats. Both are above the league averages (-0.03 EPA/DB, 44.2% success rate) in that span. In fact, Stidham's success rate from his past four years combined (46.1%) was higher than Nix's this season (44.5%).
Meanwhile, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a success rate of just 30.4% in the divisional round overtime win over the Chicago Bears. That was the ninth-lowest among the 238 playoff starting quarterbacks in the past 10 years. Stafford was the only QB in the bottom 15 who didn't lose.
Here is a deeper look at the two conference championship games through the lens of Next Gen Stats.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 3 p.m. ET, CBS
Can the Broncos exploit Patriots left tackle Will Campbell?
In two playoff games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, Campbell allowed 10 pressures, including four sacks, in 73 pass-blocking reps (13.7%). That's the most pressures and sacks for the Patriots.
But expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to help him. The Patriots provided chip block help to both Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses. Campbell received chip help on 13.3% of his pass sets, the eighth-highest mark among left tackles, and Moses received chip help on 15% of his pass sets, the sixth-highest mark among right tackles (with a minimum of 200 pass blocks).
In the Broncos' win over the Bills, their pass rush pressured quarterback Josh Allen on 32% of his dropbacks. In the regular season, the Broncos led the league in sacks (68). One of their preferred strategies was sending at least five pass rushers. Denver did it 33.7% of the time and generated a 50% pressure rate, finishing with 29 sacks, second most.
But blitzing Patriots quarterback Drake Maye could be costly. Against the blitz this season, Maye finished with 1,491 passing yards (second), 15 touchdowns (tied for third), a passer rating of 129.2 (first) and an EPA dropback of .28 (third).
Against the Texans, Maye had a passer rating of 103 with a touchdown against the blitz. The Texans didn't do it often (only 18% of his dropbacks), but when they did, Maye capitalized.
Also, when pressured, Maye averaged a league-high 8.8 yards per attempt, and his 10 touchdown passes tied Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert for the most. One of the reasons he's effective under pressure is he'll push the ball down field, but that can lead to mistakes.
Through two playoff games, Maye has been strip-sacked five times and lost two fumbles. In the Broncos' divisional round win over the Bills, outside linebacker Nik Bonitto recorded a strip sack, which was then recovered by defensive tackle Malcolm Roach.
So, keep eyes on Maye's ball security.
From a secondary standpoint, Patriots All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez was tested 16 times in the divisional round. He allowed just seven catches for 58 yards. Overall, in his two playoff games he has allowed a 33.3% completion percentage with three pass breakups.
The other side features a superstar cornerback in Broncos veteran Pat Surtain II. He has aligned as the full-time boundary -- short-side -- cornerback in each of the Broncos' past three games, playing 118 snaps as the boundary corner. Surtain had played 321 snaps as the boundary corner and 238 snaps as the field corner this season.
Why does it matter? Surtain was targeted on just 11.4% of his snaps as the boundary corner, the second-lowest mark among 64 cornerbacks who played at least 100 such snaps. He allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap (fifth fewest).
When it comes to Maye's deep passing versus the Broncos defending the deep pass, we'll see strength versus strength.
Maye's 52.1% deep ball completion percentage was the second highest this season. But the Broncos' 20.4% deep completion percentage allowed was the lowest. The Broncos did not allow a single completion on Allen's nine deep passes in the divisional round, intercepting two of the throws.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 6:30 p.m. ET, Fox
This matchup features two superstar receivers in Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Rams' Puka Nacua, and while Davante Adams isn't the All-Pro receiver he once was, he's still a dangerous threat.
Nacua averaged a league-high 3.8 yards per route this season and Smith-Njigba averaged 3.7 yards per route. They were at least 1.2 yards per route above the next-closest player -- the Baltimore Ravens' Zay Flowers (2.5).
The Rams must pay attention to Nacua in motion. He gained a league-high 473 receiving yards on snaps after he went in motion, the most by any player in a season since at least 2018. This also marks back-to-back seasons in which he has gained at least 400 such yards.
Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 956 receiving yards when aligned in the slot last season, then followed it up by leading the league with 1,378 receiving yards when aligned out wide this season. He is the first player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to lead the NFL in receiving yards from the slot in one season and from out wide in another.
Smith-Njigba can hurt you at either spot, but he aligned out wide on 81.4% of his snaps this season. He was able to turn that into a league-high 44 explosive receptions (15-plus yards), the most by any wide receiver in a season over the past two years.
He and Nacua can cook defenses running any type of route, too. Smith-Njigba gained 100 or more receiving yards on eight different route types this season. The only other wideout to do that? You guessed it, Nacua.
Smith-Njigba ranked top five on five different routes, including go routes, where his 279 yards were his most on any route. Nacua led in receiving yards on post routes (278 yards) and in-routes (253). Both players excelled when running in-breaking routes, as Smith-Njigba (828 yards) trailed Nacua's league-leading yardage mark of 831 by three yards.
One strength for the Seahawks is quarterback Sam Darnold and play-action, and that's also a weakness for the Rams.
The Rams struggled to defend play-action, specifically when they used base personnel. In base personnel, they allowed a 78.0% completion percentage and 10.9 yards per attempt when defending play-action with that grouping on the field, both of which ranked as the second-highest marks in the NFL.
They were much better when they had a nickel grouping in defending play-action. They allowed a 64.2% completion percentage and 6.7 yards per attempt, both of which ranked below the league average marks of 66.8% and 7.9.
With play-action, Darnold is tied for the highest EPA per dropback (.41) among starters and his total EPA is 58.8, the highest.
In the trenches, the Seahawks' pass rush generated the fourth-highest pressure rate (38.9%) and the Rams' offensive line allowed the second-lowest pressure rate this season (27.3%) despite facing the sixth-highest blitz rate (32.9%).
On the flip side, the Rams generated the fifth-highest pressure rate (38.0%) and the Seahawks' offensive line allowed the fifth-lowest pressure rate this season (29.2%).
When it comes to pressure from the inside, Sunday will feature the top four defensive tackle duos in total pressures generated:
Denver's Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers (98)
Seattle's Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams (91)
L.A.'s Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner (88)
New England's Christian Barmore and Milton Williams (87)
