It's the festive season, which means it's once again time for most major European leagues to give teams a little bit of a break while English teams (and Italian ones, to a degree) charge ahead with league play and two different cups. That's what the money's for, I guess.
Regardless, this semi-pause -- and the symbolic flipping of the calendar -- makes for a good spot for once again taking stock. I like to periodically check in on an advanced stats form table of sorts. Below are the top 20 teams in Europe's Big Five leagues in what we'll call "adjusted goal differential" -- a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations -- in league play, domestic cup play* and UEFA competitions. (I'm not including the Coupe de France or Copa del Rey, which have still been very much in the "giants playing mismatched minnows" stages recently.)
The list below isn't opponent-adjusted, and two months isn't a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list like this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. And the theme of 2025-26 remains the same: While Bayern Munich are no longer dominating so much that they're breaking the trend line, they're still setting the pace, and only Arsenal and maybe Manchester City are on a similar plane of existence.
(Note: For each team's upcoming schedule, I've bolded the matches against other teams in this top 20 list.)
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1. Bayern Munich
Past two months: 13 matches, 32 points (2.46 PPG), +1.36 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Wolfsburg (Jan. 11), at Koln (Jan. 14), at RB Leipzig (Jan. 21), Union Saint-Gilloise (Champions League, Jan. 21)
The most points ever in a Bundesliga season was 91, recorded by Bayern Munich in their 2012-13 Champions League title run. Even with a surprising recent draw against Mainz, Bayern are currently on pace for 92.9 points. They drew with Mainz and Union Berlin, they lost at Arsenal in the Champions League, and they've won 22 other matches in all competitions, 16 by multiple goals. Harry Kane has 29 goals and three assists in all competitions, Michael Olise has 10 and 11, Luis Daz has 12 and seven, and even 17-year-old Lennart Karl has provided a spark with six and two in 943 minutes.
They recently got Alphonso Davies back, too, and Jamal Musiala appears ready to return in January following his horrific broken leg suffered in the summer's FIFA Club World Cup. The loss at Arsenal in November was a genuine setback, but a full-strength Bayern could be capable of revenge in the Champions League knockout stages. And either way, they remain Europe's overall pace-setters.
2. Arsenal
Past two months: 13 matches, 32 points (2.46 PPG), +1.23 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Brighton (Dec. 27), Aston Villa (Dec. 30), at Bournemouth (Jan. 3), Liverpool (Jan. 8), at Portsmouth (FA Cup, Jan. 11), at Nottingham Forest (Jan. 17), at Inter Milan (Champions League, Jan. 20)
Things have gotten at least a little bit tense for the Gunners. They've dropped seven points in seven Premier League games, which has allowed both an increasingly machine-like Manchester City and a torrid Aston Villa to climb back to within three points of the top of the Premier League. But both of their recent draws came with positive xG differentials, and their late-November wins over Tottenham (4-1) and Bayern (3-1) came with a combined xGD of +4.3. Shockingly dominant stuff. They still probably have the highest ceiling in Europe this year.
3. Manchester City
Past two months: 14 matches, 33 points (2.36 PPG), +1.09 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Nottingham Forest (Dec. 27), at Sunderland (Jan. 1), Chelsea (Jan. 4), Brighton (Jan. 7), Exeter City (FA Cup, Jan. 10), at Newcastle (League Cup, Jan. 13), at Manchester United (Jan. 17), at Bodo/Glimt (Champions League, Jan. 20)
I still can't say I totally trust City's transition defense; in a four-game span a few weeks ago, they allowed 10 combined goals to Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen, Leeds and Fulham, losing twice. But in their last five matches, including an away win against Real Madrid, they've outscored opponents 13-1. They've committed more fouls than they've suffered in this span, too, hinting at a level of physicality and tactical-fouling that could honestly help immensely.
City are within two points of Arsenal in the Premier League; it would be such an epic stomach punch if Arsenal not only didn't win the league this year, but lost it to its old, inevitable enemy.
4. Juventus
Past two months: 13 matches, 27 points (2.08 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Pisa (Dec. 27), Lecce (Jan. 3), at Sassuolo (Jan. 6), Cremonese (Jan. 12), at Cagliari (Jan. 17), Benfica (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Juve fired Igor Tudor almost exactly two months ago, and the new-coach bump continues. Juve have lost only one of 11 matches since hiring Luciano Spalletti, and recent wins over Bologna (1-0) and Roma (2-1) pushed them up to fifth in Serie A. Kenan Yildiz is providing a creative spark (four goals and three assists in 947 minutes in this span), and the midfield duo of Weston McKennie (second on the team in goals and chances created in this span) and Manuel Locatelli (first in progressive passes and ground duels won) are logging major minutes and creative havoc in attack.
If they take care of business during their reasonably easy run of upcoming matches, they could be first in Serie A, or awfully close to it, by the time Champions League play resumes.
5. RB Leipzig
Past two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at St. Pauli (Jan. 10), Freiburg (Jan. 14), Bayern Munich (Jan. 17)
Behold, the first genuinely strange name on the list. After charging to second place in the Bundesliga, RBL have won only three of their last seven league matches, and while they probably deserved better than matching 3-1 scorelines in losses to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, they were still a combined minus-2.5 xG in those games.
So why are they this high on the list? Because their wins have been utterly dominant. Their six wins in this two-month span came by a combined 24-3, and they recently ran Eintracht Frankfurt off the pitch with a 6-0 trouncing. David Raum is a chance creation machine -- he has 34 of them in the last two months -- and the attacking combination of Christian Baumgartner and 19-year-old Yan Diomande has produced 12 goals and nine assists in this span. Better yet, emerging star midfielder Assan Oudraogo should be on pace to return from a late-November knee injury soon.
This team is reliant enough on youngsters that it might be destined to go through epic ups and downs all season, but the ups are pretty magnificent.
6. Paris Saint-Germain
Past two months: 11 matches, 23 points (2.09 PPG), +0.92 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Paris FC (Jan. 4), Marseille (Super Cup, Jan. 8), Paris FC (Coupe de France, Jan. 12), Lille (Jan. 16), at Sporting CP (Champions League, Jan. 20), at Auxerre (Jan. 23)
Luis Enrique continues to remind us that PSG are playing the long game. They have dropped points in both Ligue 1 (where they currently trail Lens in the table) and the Champions League (five points behind Arsenal), and in 11 matches in these competitions over the last two months, he's started 22 different players, and stars Ousmane Dembl, Dsir Dou and Achraf Hakimi have barely played.
And yet ... here they are, sixth on this form list and playing far better than they did last December, before they shifted into gear and wrecked all comers domestic and continental. They're hiding in plain sight right now.
7. Inter Milan
Past two months: 12 matches, 24 points (2.00 PPG), +0.91 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Atalanta (Dec. 28), Bologna (Jan. 4), at Parma (Jan. 7), Napoli (Jan. 11), Lecce (Jan. 14), at Udinese (Jan. 17), Arsenal (Champions League, Jan. 20)
They remain Italy's most reliable team, but they aren't immune to sterile or poor results. They allowed Liverpool to get far too comfortable in last week's Champions League loss, while losses to Napoli and AC Milan over the last two months have definitely left them with lots of work to do domestically. Still, the Liverpool match was their only one with a negative xG differential in these two months, and most of their stalwarts -- Lautaro Martnez, Hakan alhanoglu, Nicol Barella, etc. -- are playing pretty well.
8. Barcelona
Past two months: 12 matches, 28 points (2.33 PPG), +0.86 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Espanyol (Jan. 3), Athletic Club (Jan. 7), at Real Sociedad (Jan. 18), at Slavia Prague (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Their poor loss to Real Madrid was almost exactly two months ago (it counts in the sample), and Barca have been awfully good since, losing only at Chelsea. Their performance against Chelsea was disappointing, and they still give up more high-quality chances than you would prefer, but that's just part of the Hansi Flick high-line system, and you can overcome it when you're scoring almost three goals per match and are again drawing far more offsides than anyone else in the known universe.
9. Villarreal
Past two months: 10 matches, 18 points (1.80 PPG), +0.71 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Elche (Jan. 3), Deportivo Alaves (Jan. 10), at Real Betis (Jan. 18), Ajax (Champions League, Jan. 20)
Villarreal had an enormous opportunity at home against Barcelona last weekend -- a win would have brought them to within five points of the top of the LaLiga table with two games in hand. Instead, they failed to finish the chances they were given and lost 2-0.
That furthered the theme of 2025-26: Villarreal are disappointing when the bright lights are on, and they're incredible otherwise. This two month sample includes three Champions League losses -- they are a shocking 35th out of 36 teams -- and the Barca loss, and yet they still rank highly because the sample also includes six dominant wins by a combined 15-3. They're the RB Leipzig of Spain, apparently.
10. Real Madrid
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +0.64 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Real Betis (Jan. 4), vs. Atletico Madrid (Super Cup, Jan. 8), Levante (Jan. 18), Monaco (Champions League, Jan. 20)
For a team that seems awfully tempted to fire its sparkly, new, world-class manager in Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid's form is awfully good. In the 12 matches I'm counting in this two-month sample -- we aren't counting their recent Copa del Rey win over third-division Talavera, though that actually might do them a favor -- their xG differential has been +1.2 or higher in five, including wins over Barcelona and Athletic Club. Their November road draws against Elche and Girona were terribly unfortunate (combined xGD: +3.8), and they've really only looked inferior against Premier League clubs Liverpool and Manchester City.
This being Real Madrid!, however, that's certainly unacceptable, and there's no question that their defense has been hit-and-miss. They've allowed under 1.0 xG in a match just twice in this two-month sample. But injuries have played a major role in that, and the underlying attacking numbers are strong enough that simply riding out this bumpy-by-their-definitions stretch would be an obvious answer for basically any club other than this one.
Alonso's future seems more stable than it was a couple of weeks ago, at least.
11. Lyon
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +0.61 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Monaco (Jan. 3), at Lille (Coupe de France, Jan. 11), Brest (Jan. 18), at Young Boys (Europa League, Jan. 22)
Since a frustrating, five-game winless streak in November, Lyon have been mostly excellent, winning four matches by a combined 12-1 and losing only to surprising Ligue 1 leader Lens. Granted, their performance against Lens was atrocious (xGD: minus-2.1), but the upside of an attack built around wingers Pavel Sulc and 20-year-old Afonso Moreira (combined: eight goals, eight assists and 27 chances created in this span) is showing.
12. Real Betis
Past two months: 12 matches, 22 points (1.83 PPG), +0.61 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Real Madrid (Jan. 4), at Real Oviedo (Jan. 10), Villarreal (Jan. 18), at PAOK (Europa League, Jan. 22)
In the last two months, Betis have lost only to Atletico Madrid and Barcelona and have enjoyed five wins -- including one over the aforementioned Lyon -- by multiple goals. Antony (five goals and three assists in this span) has been solid, but seven different players have delivered at least two combined goals and assists, and that number rises to 13 if you include Copa del Rey action.
Perhaps most encouraging: They've crafted a roster core that is built to peak at the same time: Of the 12 players who have played at least 650 minutes in this two-month stretch, 10 are between 24 and 29.
13. Chelsea
Past two months: 14 matches, 25 points (1.79 PPG), +0.59 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Aston Villa (Dec. 27), Bournemouth (Dec. 30), at Manchester City (Jan. 4), Fulham (Jan. 7), at Charlton (FA Cup, Jan. 10), Arsenal or Crystal Palace (League Cup, Jan. 14), Brentford (Jan. 17), Pafos (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Two weeks ago, I wrote that I change my mind about Chelsea more than any other team on the planet. I think I've changed my mind a couple more times since. Still, their 2-2 comeback against Newcastle last Saturday was a delightful reminder of their upside, and they're still in solid shape in both the Champions League and in qualification for next year's Champions League.
14. Lens
Past two months: 8 matches, 21 points (2.63 PPG), +0.58 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Toulouse (Jan. 2), at Sochaux (Coupe de France, Jan. 10), Auxerre (Jan. 17)
First in Ligue 1! You can't sing that! Last season's eighth-place finish means that Lens is focusing all of its energy on domestic play after two straight years of continental play ... and they've turned that energy into a run of only one defeat in three months. They've won six straight league matches by a combined 14-3, and the veteran attacking combination of Odsonne douard and Florian Thauvin has produced eight goals, four assists and 23 chances created in this two-month span.
It's a delightful story, even if it probably isn't one that will actually produce a league title.
15. Bologna
Past two months: 13 matches, 25 points (1.92 PPG), +0.57 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Sassuolo (Dec. 28), at Inter Milan (Jan. 4), Atalanta (Jan. 7), at Como (Jan. 10), at Hellas Verona (Jan. 15), Fiorentina (Jan. 18), Celtic (Europa League, Jan. 22)
Bologna lost three of their first five matches in all competitions, but they have lost only three times since, including Monday's Supercoppa Italiana defeat to Napoli in Riyadh. Their form is starting to cool a bit, but they're here primarily because of a dominant run of four wins (over Parma, Napoli, Udinese and Salzburg) by a combined 12-2.
16. Borussia Dortmund
Past two months: 13 matches, 23 points (1.77 PPG), +0.56 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Eintracht Frankfurt (Jan. 9), Werder Bremen (Jan. 13), St. Pauli (Jan. 17), at Tottenham Hotspur (Champions League, Jan. 20)
They give away just enough points that it always feels like they're disappointing a bit, but BVB have lost only two matches in two months, and one was to Manchester City. In the nine matches since the City defeat, they've produced a positive xG differential eight times. The ever-streaky Serhou Guirassy has fallen into a bit of a finishing funk again -- he had two goals in the blowout of Villarreal but otherwise has just one goal from 3.5 xG in 15 matches -- but Julian Brandt's increasingly exciting form has offset that.
17. Lille
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +0.55 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Rennes (Jan. 3), Lyon (Coupe de France, Jan. 11), at PSG (Jan. 16), at Celta Vigo (Europa League, Jan. 22)
Lille suffered a poor four-losses-in-six run in October and early November, but they've won five of six in this sample, getting 14 goals from 11 different players in the process. They have work to do to advance in the Europa League, but they're comfortably in a Champions League qualification spot in the Ligue 1 table at the moment.
18. Nottingham Forest
Past two months: 13 matches, 23 points (1.77 PPG), +0.55 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Manchester City (Dec. 27), Everton (Dec. 30), at Aston Villa (Jan. 3), at West Ham (Jan. 6), at Wrexham (FA Cup, Jan. 9), Arsenal (Jan. 17), at Braga (Europa League, Jan. 22)
As confusing as their hire of Ange Postecoglou might have been, replacing him with Sean Dyche made lots of sense and has produced stellar results. They have 13 points from nine EPL matches under Dyche, which has pulled them out of the relegation zone, but they've also rolled to 10 points in four Europa League matches, pulling them to within two points of a possible bye into the round of 16.
19. Atltico Madrid
Past two months: 12 matches, 30 points (2.50 PPG), +0.54 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: at Real Sociedad (Jan. 4), vs. Real Madrid (Super Cup, Jan. 8), Deportivo Alaves (Jan. 18), at Galatasaray (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Atletico might be the only team I've changed my mind about more than Chelsea, but since their dire loss to Arsenal on October 21, they've dropped points only at Barcelona and Athletic Club, and they've scored at least two goals in nine of their last 12 matches (10 of 13 including Copa del Rey). And with four goals in his last three matches, Antoine Griezmann is finding his form again.
20. Marseille
Past two months: 11 matches, 20 points (1.82 PPG), +0.54 adj. goal differential
Next month's schedule: Nante (Jan. 4), at PSG (Super Cup, Jan. 8), at Bayeux FC (Coupe de France, Jan. 13), at Angers (Jan. 17), Liverpool (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Another French team finding solid form: Since losing to Atalanta in the Champions League on November 5, they've lost only once (to Lille), and they've beaten both Newcastle (2-1) and Monaco (1-0). The attacking trio of Igor Paix�o, Mason Greenwood and the ageless Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has combined for 14 goals and five assists in this two-month sample, and they're getting excellent chance creation from fullbacks/wingbacks Tim Weah and Emerson as well. They're a really solid team.
The rest of the top 30
21. Manchester United (+0.53 adj. goal differential)
22. Borussia Monchengladbach (+0.51)
23. Aston Villa (+0.49)
24. Crystal Palace (+0.45)
25. Strasbourg (+0.43)
26. VfB Stuttgart (+0.41)
27. Newcastle United (+0.38)
28. Rennes (+0.37)
29. Roma (+0.35)
30. Napoli (+0.34)
Aston Villa have averaged 2.54 points per game in these two months to move to within three points of Arsenal atop the Premier League (and seven points ahead of fourth-place Chelsea), but they might be out over their xG skis a bit: Morgan Rogers has scored six goals from shots worth 2.1 xG in his last six matches, and as a team they've somehow turned an xG differential of +4.0 into an actual goal differential of +12 in these two months. That clearly won't last, but if they can keep it up for a little while longer -- say, through their upcoming Premier League matches against Chelsea, Arsenal and Forest -- their chances of a top-four or top-five finish would be awfully well-fortified.
Noteworthy teams on the negative side
67. Tottenham Hotspur (-0.23)
69. Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.27)
81. Sunderland (-0.45)
96 (last place). Heidenheim (-1.25)
Since their brilliant 2-1 win over Chelsea on Oct. 25, Sunderland have predictably faded a bit, winning just twice in their last eight matches. They still beat Newcastle and managed draws against Arsenal, Liverpool and Brighton, and they have virtually clinched relegation avoidance. The underlying numbers suggest they won't be able to keep up European contention for too much longer, but then again, no numbers in the world would have predicted them to be in sixth place approaching the midway point in the season either.
