Our last-minute catch-up on NFL Week 7: Big predictions, stat trends, fantasy sleepers

Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep. Catch up on everything before Sunday's action.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 7.

What can we expect in a strength-on-strength matchup between the Broncos' offensive line and Giants' pass rush? Is there fantasy upside for the Buccaneers' receiving core? Can Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins rush for over 100 yards versus the Dolphins? And will the Colts-Chargers matchup exceed its point total? Let's dive in.

Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 7 winners

Will the Lions be able to exploit Buccaneers LB SirVocea Dennis in coverage?

I very much expect they will on Monday night. Dennis has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season, which is the worst among all linebackers with at least 100 coverage snaps. Sometimes coverage metrics can be fluky or misleading, but after watching every target against Dennis, that is not the case here. Dennis has struggled in coverage, and those plays are riddled with missed tackles in space, too.

That's absolutely perfect for the Lions, who already attack linebackers plenty. This season, 34% of Detroit's targets have been directed at linebackers, the third-highest in the league per NFL Next Gen Stats. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta could have big receiving days.

Can the 49ers stop the Falcons' outside zone running game?

Offensively, the 49ers are known as an outside zone team. But defensively, they've struggled to stop outside zone runs this season, allowing 6.2 yards per carry to opponents on those plays. That isn't ideal for San Francisco this week, as the only team that runs outside zone more than the 49ers (57% of the time) is the Falcons (64%).

Atlanta also happens to have Bijan Robinson, who is perhaps the best running back in the NFL right now. Add in the fact that the 49ers have to do it without linebacker Fred Warner (ankle injury), and this matchup becomes particularly challenging.

Who will win in the trenches between the Giants and Broncos?

We've got a real strength-on-strength matchup here, with the Broncos' strong pass protection facing the Giants' relentless pass-rushing talent. Denver offensive tackles Mike McGlinchey and Garett Bolles rank first and fourth, respectively, at their position in pass block win rate. They should be as well-equipped as anyone to handle Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux, even though Burns and Carter rank in the top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge over the past three weeks.

Denver's interior doesn't rate quite as highly, so perhaps this will be a Dexter Lawrence II game. Who will win? I tend to believe the offensive line has more control in situations such as this, but the opposite has certainly been true many times before. I think it's safe to say a large portion of this game will swing on whether the Giants' defenders can get past that Broncos line.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (28.7% rostered)

Spears led the Titans' backfield in snaps and routes run in Week 6 against the Raiders, though Tony Pollard still saw more touches (12 compared to Spears' nine). Spears outscored Pollard in fantasy, posting 9.0 points to Pollard's 6.7. Yes, New England's defense gives up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and ranks fourth in run stop win rate. But with the Titans' offensive line ranking 24th in run block win rate, Spears could see more targets as a receiver out of the backfield.

Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots (24.7% rostered)

Boutte is a classic boom-or-bust sleeper versus Tennessee. He exploded in Week 6 against the Saints with five receptions on five targets, scoring two touchdowns and 26.3 fantasy points. The Titans' defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Drake Maye should have time to attack Tennessee's defense downfield, and Boutte is in a great spot to benefit.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.0% rostered)

Otton is set to be an important part of the Buccaneers' passing game while receivers Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. deal with injuries. The young tight end has stepped up with nine receptions for 132 yards over the past two games. When the Bucs dealt with injuries last season, Otton accumulated 30 receptions, 293 yards and 3 touchdowns over a four-game stretch.

Tampa Bay is a 5.5-point underdog against Detroit, which points to a pass-heavy game script. Otton could surpass his season high of six targets (Week 6) against the Lions.

Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13.2% rostered)

Let's stick with the Bucs, as quarterback Baker Mayfield has a history of delivering strong performances regardless of his receiving options. Like Otton, Johnson has a prime opportunity given Tampa Bay's injury situation.

The rookie has totaled seven targets and 21.4 fantasy points over the past two games. He faces a Lions defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Detroit has also been in high-scoring games recently, with the point total going over in eight of their past 12 contests.

Spencer Rattler, QB, New Orleans Saints (3.8% rostered)

Rattler is in an excellent spot against the Bears, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Through six games, he has thrown for 1,217 passing yards and six touchdown passes, adding 143 rushing yards while remaining relatively turnover-free. Rattler has been specifically efficient with wide receiver Chris Olave, and both could take advantage of this favorable matchup in what should be a high-scoring game.

Bowen: Don't be surprised if ...

Bears WR Luther Burden III scores a touchdown against the Saints

Burden led all Bears' wide receivers in Monday night's win over the Commanders with 51 receiving yards, and he can be schemed on manufactured touches in Ben Johnson's offense. Burden scored his only touchdown back in Week 3 against Dallas, but with an increased role, the rookie could find the end zone against a Saints defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns (tied for fourth-most in the NFL).

Browns RB Quinshon Judkins rushes for over 100 yards against the Dolphins

Judkins was limited by the Steelers' defense in the Week 6 loss, rushing for a season-low 36 yards on 12 carries. However, with a much more positive matchup against Miami, Judkins could bounce back. The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 168.5 rushing yards per game. This should be a volume day for Judkins, who has 18 or more carries in three of his five appearances.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels throws three touchdown passes against the Cowboys