Last week, everything clicked. The reads were sharp, the picks landed and it all came together. Which is exactly why this week, I'm preparing for the swing back. That's the reality of betting: You enjoy the wins, but you never settle into them.
Week 5 brings four matchups on my card: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Air Force Falcons, Tulsa Golden Hurricane at home against the Tulane Green Wave, Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles, and Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks.
Each has its own story, its own wrinkle and yes, you might notice something. In three games I've listed the money line as an option, and in one, I haven't. That's intentional, so keep an eye on all my written content.
All odds by ESPN BET
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Air Force Falcons
Pick: Hawai'i +6.5
This opened at +4 and was pushed to almost a touchdown. This type of line move creates opportunity.
The market is reacting to Air Force's explosive run game against Hawai'i's weak front, and it is true that the Falcons are one of the most efficient rushing teams in the country. They can put up yards in a hurry, and they score in bunches. Hawai'i's defense is soft against the run, but it has one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors can defend the pass, force opponents into field goals in the red zone and make teams play long drives. That matters against an Air Force team that has been more explosive through the air than usual.
Hawai'i's offense matches up directly with Air Force's weakness. The Falcons are dead last in coverage and do not generate takeaways. That makes Hawai'i's turnover issues look worse on paper than in reality. Five of their giveaways came in one game against Arizona, and 24 of Arizona's 40 points came directly off those turnovers. That game was the outlier, not the norm.
Which is why with this inflated spread, Hawai'i plus the points is a real island of value.
Tulane Green Wave at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Pick: Tulsa +15.5
Hear me out. I'm back on the wave with the Hurricane even though this line moved from +13.5. I had to sit back and decide if the market was overreacting. It is and I get it.
Tulane is the safer perception play, sitting at 3-1, running the ball well, controlling time of possession, and looks the part of a steady AAC team. It's more complicated than that even though I don't want complicated in betting, but it could work out in your favor for backing an underdog.
The immediate red flag for Tulsa is the Navy game. The Hurricane gave up 367 rushing yards and 42 points, which looks like a disaster on paper. But Navy is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, and the Midshipmen do it with the option, which puts stress on every defender to play assignment-sound football.
Even with an offensive line that grades outside the top 80, Navy runs because the scheme is that good.
Tulane is not built the same way. Its run offense is 71st in rushing success and its offensive line is outside the top 100 in blocking, which means its success is more about volume than efficiency.
Tulsa is actually ranked 37th in early-downs defense. That matters because if the Green Wave can win first down, they can get Tulane into third-and-long, where their pass rush that sits in the top 10 in efficiency finally gets to show up.
Flip it around, and Tulsa's run game behind Dominic Richardson gets to face a Tulane defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against the run.
The number feels inflated. I'll take Tulsa plus the points. And at +475, the money line has legs because if the Hurricane check the right boxes, they just might walk it out.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Pick: Jacksonville State +3.5
Full transparency: This was a deeper dive. At first glance, Southern Miss has the more balanced look with a passing attack that can stretch the field, a stronger pass rush and PFF grades that show a defense ranking 26th against the run with top-five tackling. That suggests the Golden Eagles should be able to hold up against Jacksonville's one-dimensional ground game.
But efficiency comes into play. EPA has Southern Miss dead last against the run. Where the Golden Eagles break is inside the red zone, allowing 10 touchdowns on 15 trips with eight of them on the ground.
This is a broader defensive issue, not just situational weakness inside the 20. Of the 13 total touchdowns Southern Miss has allowed this season, 10 came via the run. Teams aren't beating the Golden Eagles over the top; they're physically running through them to score.
Now flip it to Jacksonville State. Its rushing profile is built to exploit exactly that weakness. The Gamecocks are top 25 in both rushing grade and run block with 39 runs of 10 or more yards (16 of them 15-plus yards).
Add in the fact that 13 of their 15 offensive touchdowns (all on the ground) have come inside the red zone, and you start to see a perfect storm. Southern Miss collapses at the barrier, and Jacksonville thrives once it gets there. The Gamecocks won't just cross the goal line, they will peck the Eagles apart one run at a time.
The question is not if Jacksonville can finish drives, it is whether it can get into scoring position often enough. With the explosives the Gamecocks generate on the ground, I believe they can. That makes +3.5 live and the +150 money line worth a look.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks
Pick: Kentucky +5.5
South Carolina has the better quarterback play with LaNorris Sellers pushing the ball downfield. That poses a threat when Kentucky's secondary is the weak spot, ranked outside the top 70 in success rate against the pass. If Sellers has time, that's where the Gamecocks can land big strikes. But that "if" is the entire handicap.
Sellers has already been sacked 12 times in four games, six of those in back-to-back weeks. This is not a one-off problem.
Kentucky's pass rush is graded top 15 by PFF even though it ranks just 78th in sacks per game. The numbers hide how disruptive the Wildcats really are. Quarterbacks are constantly under pressure, hit and hurried. That plays directly into Sellers' biggest flaw: holding the ball too long. South Carolina can land explosives, but the consistency is not there to sustain four quarters of drives.
Flip it over and Kentucky is averaging 214 rushing yards per game at 5 yards a carry. South Carolina's tackling is bottom tier, giving up 146 rushing yards to Vanderbilt and 285 to Missouri. Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell are built to punish that.
Think of Kentucky's ground game like a runaway train barreling downhill. Once it picks up speed, South Carolina's defense is stuck trying to throw bodies in front of it. You might slow it down, but you're not stopping it.
That's why this entire thought process is simple. South Carolina's tendencies (sacks allowed, no run game, long third downs) line up perfectly with Kentucky's pressure and power. Grab +5.5 with the Wildcats live to win outright at +170.
