Two weeks into the college football season and the market has spoken, yet we still don't really know anything. Title odds have shifted, Heisman boards are moving and a few teams are quietly making noise while others are already scrambling.
There have been blowouts, upsets and statement wins, but nothing that feels definitive.
Are the Oregon Ducks for real or just riding an easy start? Did the Clemson Tigers fool us all? Can the Oklahoma Sooners actually be taken seriously? And are the Georgia Bulldogs showing signs of concern? The picture is starting to take shape, but the edges are still blurry.
The biggest moves and notable lines for the national championship odds
Clemson +2200
Last week: +1300
Did we all just get Clemson wrong? The Tigers opened the season as a top-five darling at +900 to win the national title and Cade Klubnik sat right there at +900 for the Heisman. Two weeks later, both have drifted to +2200, and it feels like the market has completely lost confidence. A 17-10 loss to LSU set them back, but even in a 27-16 win over Troy, they trailed 16-0 at one point. The offense still lacks explosive plays, the run game isn't carrying its weight and the defense is giving up early leads. Clemson is good, but after two weeks, the idea of elite feels questionable. Suddenly their manageable schedule is starting to look a bit more daunting and a even a playoff spot seems like an ask.
Oregon +1200
Last week: +1000
I'm not saying Oregon has my full attention, but the intrigue is starting to creep. Two blowouts at home, 59-13 over Montana State and 69-3 over Oklahoma State, and yes, those may be easy opponents, but the Ducks are putting up video-game numbers. National title odds have crept from +1500 during the preseason to +1200. Slowly and steadily, and people are starting to notice. The balance is what stands out: over 1,100 yards of offense through two games, split between passing and rushing, and zero turnovers. That efficiency can travel, and it's why the matchup at Penn State later this month feels massive. In a quiet week for title odds, Oregon's the one quietly making noise.
Other notable line moves from post Week 1 to post Week 2
Florida +7500
Last week: +3000
Florida's fall in the market was fast and ugly. The Gators lost as 18-point favorites to USF and, looking ahead, it's hard to find wins. Their schedule is LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State. That's brutal. It's not one bad loss but a full season trending toward downright nasty.
Georgia +650
Last week: +750
I wouldn't hit the panic button yet, but it's worth raising an eyebrow. Georgia beat Austin Peay 28-6, but Gunner Stockton threw it 34 times against an FCS opponent. That feels ... off-script. Being up just 14-3 at halftime also raises questions about rhythm and identity. That said, it's Week 2, and Kirby Smart tends to use these early games to tinker. For a team priced as a title favorite, it's notable.
LSU +800
Last week: +900
Last week, I said LSU was a "no" for me. Remains the same. LSU's offense looks ... unsettled. The Tigers haven't established the run, lack explosive plays, and their red-zone conversion rate has lagged, which means drives stall into field goals instead of touchdowns. Still a no.
The sentiment seems to be that nobody truly knows who the real title contenders are yet, and with minimal line movement across the board, the market is essentially saying it needs more proof before making any big adjustments.
Biggest moves and notable lines for the Heisman winner
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma +800
Last week: +1600
Mateer's Heisman odds made a massive jump, and it makes sense after the Michigan win, but I'm not fully sold. Yes, he's putting up numbers; 270 passing yards, 74 rushing yards and two rushing TDs against Michigan. And that dual-threat ability is exactly what voters love.
The challenge is sustainability. Oklahoma's offense is Mateer-dependent right now, averaging just 5.5 yards per play with limited explosiveness outside of him. To stay in the race, he'll need more high-volume, high-impact performances in marquee games. He's jumping into the conversation, but not locked in. His odds correlate to Oklahoma's odds shortening from +4000 to +3500, but the Sooners are still priced as a long shot for a reason. Oklahoma is not an overwhelming team yet. The defense was solid, but Michigan's offensive struggles helped.
The Sooners are trending up, but until we see Mateer and OU against better competition, both "title contender" and Heisman still feels premature.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon +1400
Last week: +2000
Moore's Heisman climb is one of the quieter but more significant storylines through two weeks. His odds have gone from +3000 in preseason to +2000 after Week 1 and now +1400, and the market is buying fast. Maybe there's a reason for it.
Through two games, Moore has been nearly flawless: 34-of-44 (77%) for 479 yards, 12.7 YPA, 0 interceptions, plus a balanced offense around him. Oregon is averaging over 550 yards and 64 points per game, and Moore hasn't had to force anything.
The catch? He hasn't played anyone. Montana State and Oklahoma State aren't Penn State, and that Sept. 27 matchup could make or break his Heisman run. If he shows the same efficiency and explosiveness in a "White Out" environment, Moore's odds could head into the top five. I'm having flashbacks to his 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions ratio from his '23 season at UCLA.
Betting consideration: Sit patient, but keep an eye on USF
The goal of this weekly piece is to make a futures prediction either in the Heisman race, national title winner or to make/miss the playoff. The two teams that have my interest are the South Florida Bulls and Florida State Seminoles.
USF is suddenly on the radar after back-to-back wins over then-No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida, vaulting them to No. 18 in the AP Poll and sparking early playoff chatter as one of the top Group-of-5 contenders. Yes, the Bulls' resume is strong on paper, but the real test comes Saturday on the road at No. 5 Miami, which will tell us how legitimate they really are.
As 17.5-point underdogs, if USF covers but loses to Miami, it keeps the Bulls in the playoff conversation but doesn't boost their case. Perhaps the better play right now is backing USF as underdogs against Miami if you believe they're for real. However, I still have my hesitations.
These early weeks, you're likely to find more value backing underdogs in individual matchups rather than tying up your money on a low-conviction futures play. Betting is just as much about what you don't wager than what you do. With so much uncertainty, this feels like a bear market for futures; prices are moving, but conviction is low, and patience might be the smarter play until true contenders separate themselves.
