Through two weeks, Florida State has delivered two very different wins, and together the Seminoles are shaping a very different conversation in 2025.
First came the upset, a 31-17 win over No. 8 Alabama in Week 1. That wasn't a fluky pick-six or special teams miracle. It was structured discipline and balance.
Florida State went into a heavyweight matchup and controlled the line of scrimmage, something Alabama doesn't allow often. The Seminoles rushed for 230 yards on 49 carries (4.7 yards per rush), leaned on situational execution (5-for-12 on third downs, 2-for-2 on fourth), and limited themselves to just four penalties.
Analysts around the country called it a "program-shifting win" and a "statement" for Mike Norvell's culture. It wasn't just that the Noles beat the Crimson Tide; it's how they did it, by playing clean, physical football while forcing Alabama into uncomfortable situations offensively. They held the Tide to 87 rushing yards, pressured QB Ty Simpson all night, and never looked out of control. It put the rest of the ACC and, honestly, the country on notice.
Then came Week 2: Florida State 77, East Texas A&M 3. Yes, it was an FCS opponent. Yes, the Seminoles were heavily favored. But the story isn't that they scored 77 points, again, it's how.
Florida State scored touchdowns on 10 straight possessions, racked up 729 total yards, and rotated nearly 90 players without a visible drop in execution. Tommy Castellanos threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 attempts, Duce Robinson exploded for 173 receiving yards and a highlight one-handed grab, and the ground game produced 361 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry.
It was clinical, precise and unrelenting. The Noles never took their foot off the gas and that matters. Good programs win the games they're supposed to win. Great programs dominate them.
It's not that East Texas A&M was a challenge, but that FSU executed at an elite level across the depth chart. Everyone was involved -- even the third-stringers -- and the defense forced turnovers and allowed only 197 total yards. This was a top-10 team treating an FCS opponent like an FCS opponent.
And now, everything points toward Week 6 against Miami.
That matchup just became one of the most significant midseason conference games of the year. FSU looks fast, deep and balanced, but Miami has quietly built one of the ACC's most physical rosters. If Florida State wants to prove it's not just hot but truly legitimate, Miami is the test.
Through two weeks, the Seminoles have beaten an SEC squad and obliterated a lower-tier team the way great programs should. That combination doesn't guarantee anything, but it changes everything. Florida State has my attention. Week 6 will tell us if the Noles deserve the nation's, too.
How to bet Florida State
After Week 1, Florida State shortened from +1100 to +700 to win the ACC. That's a massive swing, but it's justified. The Alabama win moved FSU's power ratings significantly, and the 77-point blowout over East Texas A&M was about execution with flawless efficiency up and down the depth chart.
Bettors are paying attention, and so are books. If Florida State beats Miami in Week 6, expect this number to crash again. I'll almost certainly be backing FSU as an underdog in that matchup.
Clemson is still the market favorite and I'm not fully confident the Tigers deserve to be. They're deep on defense but a loss to LSU and a 27-16 win against Troy at home doesn't instill confidence they can get past SMU or FSU.
