For the first time since the 2015-16 season, the Premier League will begin with a club not called Manchester City atop the odds board in the United States.
Reigning champion Liverpool is the favorite to win the Premier League for the 2025-26 campaign, showing +175 odds at ESPN BET. Arsenal, the runner-up for last season, is second-favorite at +225, with Man City rounding out the top three at +350.
It's the first time during Pep Guardiola's tenure, which began ahead of the 2016-17 season, that the club has not been the favorite to win the league going into the campaign. It also marks the first time since 2011-12 that City was not one of the top two favorites, according to ESPN Research.
The lack of faith extends from the sportsbooks to the bettors themselves: Man City has just 11.2% of the bets and 7.6% of the handle in the league winner market at ESPN BET, fifth-most for each. BetMGM and DraftKings report the same fifth place ranking for the Citizens in the market with only slightly different metrics.
By contrast, one of the most well-supported clubs by bettors during the offseason has been Chelsea, which saw significant line movement as a result of action and its Club World Cup win in July. The Blues opened as long as +2500 at some sportsbooks and have since shortened to a consensus +800, with BetMGM reporting them as their largest ticket attractor at 19.3%.
"They were very impressive during the Club World Cup, including a dominant showing in the final against arguably the best team in Europe, PSG," ESPN BET VP of sportsbook strategy & growth Adam Landeka said in an email. "They've also strengthened their squad considerably with the likes of Jo�o Pedro, Estv�o, Delap, Binoe-Gittens, Essugo and Hato during this transfer window."
While Liverpool is, of course, well-supported as the favorite, leading ticket count at DraftKings and ESPN BET, Manchester United (+2000) has also attracted bettor attention as a longer shot after also being active during the transfer window. BetMGM and ESPN BET both have the Red Devils as their handle leader for the market, with over 30% of the money share.
"Chelsea has been heavily bet this year because they won that Club World Cup last month... They showed they could win a tournament like that, so at 25-1, the bettors saw value in that and obviously there was because now they're all the way down to eight," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "Man United is also being bet pretty heavily in the futures. So those two I'd say are probably our biggest hazards."
The Premier League is easily the most-bet soccer league at American sportsbooks, with BetMGM saying that 80% of its league winner wagers are for the Premier League compared to the other four big European leagues. On a match-to-match basis, the Premier League attracts double the amount of tickets and money compared to the next closest league, LaLiga.
Still, these leagues attract a fair amount of handle, with Avello saying that "there's been growth every year" for soccer overall.
LaLiga is likely going to be a two-club race this season as usual, with Real Madrid the odds-on favorite at -120 and Barcelona right behind at +110, according to ESPN BET odds; the sportsbook reports a combined 97% of wagers backing either of the two clubs, with Bara attracting an astounding 93.2% of handle on its own.
Elsewhere, Napoli (+150) leads a tighter field in Serie A, which has five teams within +900, while Bayern Munich (-400) and Paris Saint-Germain (-800) are laughably huge favorites in the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, respectively.
