Premier League 2025-26 mega-preview: Key stats, questions, predictions for all 20 teams

Can you believe we're already back? Well, neither can we.

It seems like just last week Liverpool were celebrating their second Premier League title -- and their first one in front of fans. And it seems like just yesterday that Chelsea were celebrating winning Gianni Infantino's beloved inaugural FIFA Club World Cup.

But our warped perceptions of time will not stop the Premier League from marching forward. And the 2025-26 kicks off Friday, when defending champions Liverpool host Bournemouth at Anfield.

Despite what seems like a barely existent offseason, a ton has changed. Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have made significant investments ahead of what's expected to be a three-team title race. Chelsea have made significant investments because that's just what they do. Tottenham have a new coach and a giant Son Heung-Min-shaped hole on the roster. Newcastle are having a stand-off with their superstar striker. And Manchester United are spending money with only vague concerns for ideas such as player value, age, squad construction, tactics and the future.

OK fine, that last part isn't new, but there is a lot that is, so Ryan O'Hanlon and Bill Connelly are back with their 20-team mega-preview. As they do every year, they've each predicted the end-of-the season table from top to bottom, averaged their predictions together, and produced one final collective prediction. Here's how they see the season playing out, with a rundown on what has changed for each club over the summer.

(Note: All transfer values come from Transfermarkt.)

1. Liverpool

Last season's finish: first (84 points, plus-45 goal differential)
Key ins: AM Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen, 125m), CF Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt, 80m), LB Milos Kerkez (Bournemouth, 46.9m), RB Jeremie Frimpong (Bayer Leverkusen, 40m)
Key outs: LW Luis Daz (Bayern Munich, 70m), CF Darwin Nez (Al-Hilal, 53m), CB Jarell Quansah (Bayer Leverkusen, 35m), GK Caoimhn Kelleher (Brentford, 14.8m), RB Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid, 10m)

Key stat

After years of Jurgen Klopp's high-risk, high-reward style, Liverpool were more patient under Arne Slot in 2024-25, and it reaped immediate dividends.

Liverpool, 2023-24: 0.157 xG per shot (eighth), 0.152 xG allowed per shot (third)
Liverpool, 2024-25: 0.179 xG per shot (second), 0.134 xG allowed per shot (third)

The Reds continued to generate far more shots than their opponents, but they improved their shot quality and tamped down on the breakdowns. It produced a surprisingly easy league title.

One big question: Does an offensive rebuild throw off the balance?

It was easy to think of last season's run as a one-off -- a somewhat aging team built by another regime rolls to a title after Manchester City falls apart and Arsenal suffers the wrong injuries at the wrong time. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, perhaps, Liverpool imagined it this way, too. They re-signed both Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, spent over 200 million on two of the game's brightest young attackers (Wirtz and Ekitike) and inked replacements for both aging fullback Andrew Robertson (Kerkez) and the Madrid-bound Trent (Frimpong). They also continue to pursue Newcastle's Alexander Isak.

Salah led the Premier League in goals (29) and assists (18). He enjoyed one of the greatest contract years we've ever seen in any sport. With Daz and Nez leaving (and, of course, the death of Diogo Jota in a car crash), he'll have a completely different supporting cast. He might be more of a supporter, too, finding fewer opportunities for himself.

Will this new attacking talent negate Salah's brilliance to a degree? And will the attack-minded Frimpong's presence put further pressure on the rest of the Liverpool defense? (We should never take more than we need to from the Community Shield, but Crystal Palace averaged 0.15 xG last Sunday).

If Liverpool disappoint in 2025-26, defensive breakdowns probably will be the cause, though the rumored impending additions of Marc Guhi (Crystal Palace) and Giovanni Leoni (Parma) certainly show that Liverpool are attempting to head that off as well. Regardless, raw talent means they start this season where they finished the last one: atop the league. -- Connelly

2. Arsenal

Last season's finish: second (74 points, plus-35 goal differential)
Key ins: DM Martn Zubimendi (Real Sociedad, 70 million), CF Viktor Gykeres (Sporting Lisbon, 65.8 million), RW Noni Madueke (Chelsea, 56 million), CB Cristhian Mosquera (Valencia, 15 million), DM Christian Norgaard (Brentford, 11.6 million), GK Kepa Arrizabalaga (Chelsea, 5.8 million)
Key outs: DM Thomas Partey (Villarreal, free), LB Kieran Tierney (Celtic, free), DM Jorginho (Flamengo, free), RB Takehiro Tomiyasu (out of contract)

Key stat

According to the transfer-value estimates from the site Transfermarkt, Arsenal have eight players worth at least 60 million on their current roster. Of those eight players, not a single one played 90% of the Premier League minutes for Arsenal last season. William Saliba led the team's outfield players with 88.9%, while Declan Rice played 82.6% of the time, and then everyone else was below 70%: Gabriel Magalh�es (69.1%), Martin degaard (68%), Kai Havertz (54.8%), and Bukayo Saka (50.6%). The two other 60-million-plus players, Zubimendi and Gyokeres, weren't on the team last year.

Arsenal should be better this season for one pretty simple reason: Their best players are probably going to play at lot more in 2025-26.

One big question: Can Arsenal generate enough quality chances to win the league?

When I wrote Arsenal's preview last season, I asked the exact same question. And, well, I'm asking it again because the answer for the 2024-25 season wasn't just "no." The answer was "no, and it's going to be even worse."

In 2023-24, Arsenal generated 46 shots worth at least 0.33 expected goals -- or what the analysts Jamon Moore and Carlon Carpenter have referred to as "great shots." That was sixth most in the league. In 2024-25, the number of great shots dropped all the way down to 36:

The Gunners again had the best defense in the league. They've allowed 63 goals over the past two seasons -- 15 fewer than any other team in the league over that stretch. This is a genuinely elite defensive side; for my money, the best in the world at that end of the field. That gives them such a high floor. (See: three straight second-place finishes.) But until they figure out how to raise their ceiling by consistently creating more high-quality chances, they're not going to win the Premier League. -- O'Hanlon

3. Manchester City

Last season's finish: third (71 points, plus-28 goal differential)
Key ins: CM Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan, 55.0 million), LB Rayan At-Nouri (Wolves, 36.8 million), RW Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyon, 36.5 million), GK James Trafford (Burnley, 31.2 million), CM Sverre Nypan (Rosenborg, 15.0 million)
Key outs: RB Yan Couto (Bor. Dortmund, 20.0 million), DM Mximo Perrone (Como, 13.0 million), AM Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli, free), RB Kyle Walker (Burnley, free), FW Jack Grealish (Everton, season-long loan)

Key stat

Over the past three seasons in the Premier League, Manchester City's expected goal differential is 0.85 goals per 90 minutes better when Rodri is on the field, compared to when he's not. For context, Liverpool led the league with a plus-1.15 xG differential per game last season, while no other team was north of plus-0.67. Put another way: City finished last season with a plus-0.54 xG differential. Apply the Rodri Effect, and they're right there with Liverpool in a title race.

One big question: Uh, guys, what about the defense?

Last year, Manchester City controlled possession at a similar rate to what they've normally done under Pep Guardiola. But they did so by really slowing down the game. Over the course of the season, their matches featured 2,715 possessions for each team, while the previous low in Guardiola's tenure was 2,920. Despite giving their opponents fewer opportunities on the ball, City allowed 356 shots and 743 touches inside their penalty area -- both way higher than the previous highs of 301 shots and 598 touches inside the box under Guardiola.

The easiest explanation: no Rodri, and a bunch of aging midfielders such as Ilkay Gndogan, Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva. Rodri is supposedly coming back in September, but he's 29, just had another injury setback, and is coming off of a torn ACL. And while City have spent a lot of money this summer, none of it has gone to anyone who will be remotely helpful at shoring up the massive soft spot in the middle of the field.

Unless Rodri comes back fully healthy or Guardiola finds the tactical solution he couldn't see at all last season, then the transition defense is going to be a problem for the second season in a row. -- O'Hanlon

4. Chelsea

Last season's finish: fourth (69 points, plus-21 goal differential)
Key ins: CF Jo�o Pedro (Brighton, 63.7m), LW Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund, 56m), LB Jorrel Hato (Ajax, 44.2m), CF Liam Delap (Ipswich, 35.5m), RW Estv�o (Palmeiras, 34m), DM Drio Essugo (Sporting CP, 22.3m)
Key outs: RW Noni Madueke (Arsenal, 56m), CF Jo�o Flix (Al-Nassr, 30m), GK Djordje Petrovic (Bournemouth, 28.9m), DM Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley, 28.7m), CM Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton, 28.7m), CF Armando Broja (Burnley, 23m), CM Mathis Amougou (Strasbourg, 14.5m), LB Bashir Humphreys (Burnley, 14m), GK Kepa Arrizabalaga (Arsenal, 5.8m)

Key stat

Over the past seven seasons, the eventual Premier League champion averaged just 2.6 major additions (which we'll define here as acquisitions of 10 million or more). Chelsea have had eight major additions this summer, and it doesn't seem as if the Blues are done wheeling and dealing in this window.

This is, of course, nothing new for Chelsea. In fact, it's a slowdown -- in the first three years of BlueCo ownership, the Blues averaged 11.7 major acquisitions per season. The endless talent churn continues. But it brings up an obvious and vital question.

One big question: When will they decide the roster is ready?

Chelsea won both the Conference League and Club World Cup last season. While that required defeating only two teams currently in the top 50 of the Opta power rankings (Paris Saint-Germain and Benfica), trophies raise expectations of more trophies, especially when you look as good as they did against PSG.

Despite a spring finishing funk, Cole Palmer finished with 18 goals and 13 assists in all competitions, and midfielder Moiss Caicedo began living up to the hype that came with his 116 million 2023 transfer -- he was first in the league in ball recoveries and top 10 in both progressive passes and fouls suffered. Enzo Maresca established solid possession principles, and while extra caution tamped down high-quality opportunities for both Chelsea and their opponents, it was easy to start envisioning Chelsea as something approaching a finished product and title contender. And then the club made a million new moves and shuffled the roster all over again.

Can you make a major Premier League run without any semblance of stability? And will summer wear-and-tear drag the Blues down eventually? -- Connelly

5. Brighton & Hove Albion

Last season's finish: eighth (61 points, plus-7 goal differential)
Key ins: CF Charalampos Kostoulas (Olympiacos, 35.0 million), LB Maxim De Cuyper (Club Brugge, 20.0 million), LW Tom Watson (Sunderland, 12.0 million), CB Diego Coppola (Hellas Verona, 11.0 million), RW Do-young Yoon (Daejeon Hana C., 2.0 million), CB Olivier Boscagli (PSV Eindhoven, free)
Key outs: CF Jo�o Pedro (Chelsea, 63.7 million), LW Simon Adingra (Sunderland, 24.4 million), LB Pervis Estupin (AC Milan, 17.0 million), CM Valentn Barco (R. Strasbourg, 10.0 million), CF Evan Ferguson (AS Roma, 3.0 million loan fee), GK Kjell Scherpen (Union SG, 2.0 million), RB Odeluga Offiah (Preston, 1.6 million)

Key stat

Last season, eight players who were 22 or younger at the start of the season played at least 1,000 minutes for Brighton. Over the past 20 Premier League seasons, only one team had more: Chelsea, in 2023-24, with nine. And in the Premier League last season, no one else had more than five.

Just to keep it all consistent, their manager, Fabian Hurzeler, is 32 -- eight years younger than any of his fellow coaches. In fact, he's a full 30 years younger than Everton's David Moyes, the elder statesman of Premier League managers.

One big question: Will someone break out?

The major benefit of being such a young team: There are so many players who can get better, and there's an outside chance that everyone gets better at the same time. But to be clear, Brighton needs someone to get better if they're going to finish this high in the table. Last season, they finished eighth on points, ninth on goal differential, and 10th on expected goal differential. For all the exciting talent sprinkled throughout the squad, this was a midtable team by every definition of the phrase.

Now, there were some outlines of higher-level performance: Only last season's top four controlled more final-third possession and only last season's top five generated more touches inside the opposition penalty area. Brighton just couldn't turn that territorial dominance into a requisite level of chance-creation dominance. Roughly, 0.5 non-penalty expected goals+assists is the marker of above-average attacking performance -- and not a single Brighton player, including summer exit Joao Pedro, reached that mark last season. If one of their young attackers, say Yankuba Minteh or Georginio Rutter, take a leap this season, all of that final-third possession should turn into a lot more goals. -- O'Hanlon

6. Newcastle United

Last season's finish: fifth (66 points, plus-21 goal differential)
Key ins: RW Anthony Elanga (Nottingham Forest, 61.4m), CB Malick Thiaw (AC Milan, 40m million), CB Malick Thiaw (AC Milan, 35m), GK Aaron Ramsdale (Southampton, loan)
Key outs: CB Lloyd Kelly (Juventus, 17.2m), CM Sean Longstaff (Leeds United, 13.8m)

Key stat

Alexander Isak scored 35% of Newcastle's league goals last season and had 12% of their assists. The season starts Saturday, and we don't know if he will play for the team this season or, if he doesn't, who will replace him. That seems suboptimal.

One big question: Who scores the goals?

Until UEFA agrees that a writer's personal convenience is the most important priority and finally arranges to close the transfer window before the season begins, we'll have to keep writing previews of teams that might soon look completely different.

Newcastle ended last season in lovely form: After a sluggish start, Eddie Howe's Magpies produced the second-best point total and goal differential in the league after Dec. 7. They won the EFL Cup, too, their first trophy in 56 years. Isak produced 27 goals and six assists in all competitions, and despite an up-and-down season from Anthony Gordon, Newcastle still got strong winger contributions thanks to a combined 18 goals and 18 assists from veterans Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes.

The defense improved despite the team suffering a few more high turnovers, and Newcastle entered the summer ready to spend some money. As the season approaches, they still have moves to make. Liverpool both thwarted them for Ekitike and have completely unsettled Isak. This has not been the summer they planned.

But Elanga is a solid addition. He recorded the top speed in the league last year at 36.1 km/hr, according to Gradient Sports (formerly PFF FC), and covered the fifth-most distance via sprints. He will only enhance their counterattacking prowess, and with sturdy options such as midfielders Bruno Guimar�es and Sandro Tonali and center backs Dan Burn, Fabian Schr and Sven Botman (back from injury), this team's floor will remain higher than most. But we won't know about this team's attacking potential until at least Sept. 1. -- Connelly

7. Aston Villa

Last season's finish: sixth (66 points, plus-7 goal differential)
Key ins: CF Evann Guessand (OGC Nice, 30.0 million), CB Yasin Ozcan (Kasimpasa, 7.0 million)
Key outs: RB Kaine Kesler-Hayden (Coventry, 4.0 million), DM Enzo Barrenechea (Benfica, 3.0 million loan fee), AM Philippe Coutinho (Vasco da Gama, free), GK Robin Olsen (Malm FF, free)

Key stat

Over the past eight Premier League seasons, 35 players have completed at least 20 through balls in a season. That averages out to a little over four per season, or about 0.2 per team. That is, unless you're last season's Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers completed 22 through balls last season, and Youri Tielemans landed 24 passes behind the opposition defense. Rogers, in particular, was one of the most ambitious passers we've seen in a long time. The six players other than Rogers who completed at least 20 through balls last season averaged about 1,700 attempted passes between them. Rogers attempted only 907.

One big question: Is that it?

In a summer in which teams are spending between $60 million to $80 million on strikers who have never played in a Big Five league or strikers who have never consistently scored goals, Villa's move for 24-year-old Evann Guessand from Nice looks like one of the savvier deals of the summer. He's just entering his peak years, and he's coming off a full season in which he averaged 0.51 non-penalty expected goals-plus-assists in a league that, despite its poor competitive reputation, actually translates quite well to the Premier League.

It's just ... that's it. Villa haven't brought in any other potential contributors, and they also haven't moved anyone on for significant fees.

This is the same team that spent a pretty sizable chunk of cash on loan fees for Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Axel Disasi in January, and then proceeded to give all of them a lot of playing time. Those guys are all gone now. Apart from the arrival of Guessand, an easier schedule without Champions League matches, and potential development from Rogers and other pre-peak-age contributors such as Amadou Onana and Jacob Ramsey, Villa still haven't given themselves that many paths toward improvement. -- O'Hanlon

8. AFC Bournemouth

Last season's finish: ninth (56 points, plus-12 goal differential)
Key ins: GK Djordje Petrovic (Chelsea, 28.9m), LB Adrien Truffert (Rennes, 13.5m)
Key outs: CB Illia Zabarnyi (PSG, 63m), CB Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid, 62.5m), LB Milos Kerkez (Liverpool, 46.9m)

Key stat

From Nov. 30 to Feb. 15, Bournemouth recorded the league's third-highest point total and goal differential. They played at the highest tempo, with the most active defense, and forced loads of high turnovers. Injuries and fatigue waylaid them down the stretch, and they lost three exciting young defenders to bigger clubs this summer. But for a few weeks, we saw manager Andoni Iraola's vision in full bloom.

One big question: Do the Cherries have staying power?

Even with Zabarnyi, Huijsen and Kerkez now elsewhere, they still have pre- or early-prime players such as wingers Antoine Semenyo, Dango Ouattara and Marcus Tavernier, attacking midfielder Justin Kluivert, forward Evanilson and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams. But were injuries and fatigue bad luck or simply the result of attempting a pedal-to-the-metal style in the most demanding league in the sport?

Bournemouth have made only one primary outfield addition, and while youngsters such as midfielder Alex Scott and defenders Julin Araujo and James Hill could play larger roles, it's hard to say that depth is better now than it was a year ago.

If there's hope, it's that the remaining stars might still have another gear. Semenyo did last season, as he increased his goal contributions while blossoming into one of the league's most successful dribblers.

Semenyo, who signed a lengthy contract extension this summer, raised his combined goals-and-assists total from 10 to 16, had more progressive carries than any attacker not named Jrmy Doku and provided more value with his passing than anyone outside of Salah/Fernandes/Saka territory. If other returnees pull a Semenyo in 2025-26, perhaps the ridiculously entertaining Cherries could still move a bit further up the ladder. -- Connelly

9. Tottenham Hotspur

Last season's finish: 17th (38 points, minus-1 goal differential)
Key ins: RW Mohammed Kudus (West Ham, 63.8m), CF Mathys Tel (Bayern Munich, 35m), CB Kevin Danso (Lens, 25m), CB Luka Vuskovic (Hajduk Split, 11m), CB Kota Takai (Kawasaki Frontale, 5.8m), DM Jo�o Palhinha (Bayern Munich, loan)
Key outs: LW Son Heung-Min (LAFC, 22m), DM Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Marseille, 13.5m)

Key stat

I'm going to reuse a graphic from another piece because it's one of the damnedest outlier charts you'll see:

There's a solid correlation between your performance in close and not-so-close games -- teams that do well in the latter usually have the skill to prevail in the former. In 21 matches decided by zero or one goals, Spurs should have produced about 28-30 points; they produced eight. That's how you play like a mid-table team on paper but finish 17th instead. Progression toward the mean is almost inevitable in 2025-26.

One big question: What does progression toward the mean look like?

OK, Spurs should have been midtable. That's not good enough considering how much they spend to construct their squad. A rebound is almost assured? Great, but does that mean a run at the top five or, say, 12th place?

The club did a nice job of shoring up its defense, signing some high-upside center backs with a low-risk loan for Palhinha. But with Son leaving and James Maddison tearing his ACL (and Dejan Kulusevski probably out a while too), they might need far more for their attack than Kudus, a great dribbler who hasn't contributed much beyond that, and Tel, a prospect who looks the part but hasn't yet delivered.

New manager Thomas Frank crafted overachievement at Brentford through quick strikes, set pieces and a commitment to forcing opponents into low-quality shots. How much will he have to change to win in North London? -- Connelly

10. Crystal Palace

Last season's finish: 12th (53 points, plus-0 goal differential)
Key ins: LB Borna Sosa (Ajax, 2.3 million), GK Walter Bentez (PSV Eindhoven, free)
Key outs: CB Rob Holding (Colorado, free), LM Jeffrey Schlupp (Norwich, free)

Key stat

If we chop off all of the matches that took place in 2024, then the top of the Premier League doesn't really change that much. Using adjusted goal differential (a blend of 70% goals and 30% expected goals), the three best teams in England's top flight were Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal. But guess who was fourth?

While it was shocking to see a team that finished the season in 12th and conceded as many goals as they scored win the FA Cup, it wasn't as surprising when you considered Palace's play in the second half of the season. Oliver Glasner's side was genuinely one of the best teams in England in 2025.

One big question: Are they going for it?

Over the eight seasons after they were promoted from the Championship in 2013, Crystal Palace were outscored by 100 goals but managed to avoid relegation through some combination of good luck, Luka Milovojevic penalties, and market forces that meant Wilfried Zaha wouldn't make more money at any of the Champions League clubs he'd be good enough to start for. But this was a mostly unspectacular club without a real identity that got by with aging veterans playing out some conservative, reactive tactics.

Over the past four seasons, though, they've been outscored by only six goals, they have an exciting young manager in Oliver Glasner, and they've carved out an identity: They're the club for the young stars of the lower leagues in England to go to if they want to get Premier League playing time. The approach led to an FA Cup victory and, in turn, a spot in the Conference League.

The legal whiplash around what should've been their place in the Europa League led to what you saw above: barely any players acquired or sent away. But with all of that sorted out, Palace now face the question that comes for any team that escapes the relegation battle and finds some success higher up the table: Do you cash in on the players who got you there? Or do you spend some money and try to win a trophy or sneak into the Champions League somehow? -- O'Hanlon

11. Manchester United

Last season's finish: 15th (42 points, minus-10 goal differential)
Key ins: CF Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig, 76.5 million), RW Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford, 75.0 million), AM Matheus Cunha (Wolves, 74.2 million), LB Diego Len (Cerro Porteo, 4.0 million)
Key outs: LW Marcus Rashford (Barcelona, loan), CB Victor Lindelf (contract expired), CM Christian Eriksen (contract expired), CB Jonny Evans (retired)

Key stat

The company Gradient tracks a number of new contextual statistics. One of them is the number of shots a player takes when there's a better passing option available. Last season, Cunha led the league with 57 shots when a better option was available, while his new teammate Bruno Fernandes ranked fourth with 44.

Playing for Brentford, a club more obsessed with shot quality than any other in the world, Mbeumo still managed to take 29 shots with a better option available -- tied for 12th most in the league. And while we don't have access to Bundesliga data, Sesko's average distance from goal on his shots with RB Leipzig was 17.3 yards -- an eighth-percentile mark among all forwards across Europe's Big Five leagues.

One big question: A midfielder? Any midfielder?

United have completely revamped their forward line with Cunha, Mbuemo and Sesko. And while there are major questions around either the age profiles, production profiles, or both, for all three of those players, this team scored 44 goals last season -- more than only Everton and the three relegated sides. They need to score more goals.

But they now head into the season with Fernandes, Manuel Ugarte, Kobbie Mainoo and Casemiro as their four senior-level midfielders. Perhaps midfield depth isn't as important in a system like Ruben Amorim's that uses only two rather than the more common midfield three. But there are key questions about all four of those players. Fernandes is really an attacking midfielder, not someone you can rely on as part of a midfield two. Ugarte struggled to do anything other than hit people last season. At 20, Mainoo is still a tertiary player who's most impactful around the box. And Casemiro is 33, sliding headfirst down the age curve.

At a time when all of the best teams in the world have invested heavily in young, mobile, physical midfield talent, United have looked at that part of the field and mostly just shrugged. -- O'Hanlon

12. Nottingham Forest

Last season's finish: seventh (65 points, plus-12 goal differential)
Key ins: RW Dan Ndoye (Bologna, 42m), CF Igor Jesus (Botafogo, 19m), CB Jair Cunha (Botafogo, 12m)
Key outs: RW Anthony Elanga (Newcastle, 61.4m), DM Danilo (Botafogo, 23m), LW Ramn Sosa (Palmeiras, 12.5m)

Key stat

Forest scored 58 goals from shots worth 46.6. That's an overachievement of 11.4 goals, easily the most in the league. But the magic ran out in April: Scoring eight goals from shots worth 8.6 xG, Forest took only eight points from their last eight matches and tumbled from third to seventh in the table.

One big question: What happens when Chris Wood comes back to earth?

I said Forest overachieved above, but most of it came from 33-year-old Chris Wood, who scored 20 goals, 10 of which gave Forest the lead. But those goals came from shots worth just 13.4 xG, meaning he overachieved by 49%. His career xG overachievement was almost exactly +0.0% before last season, which means this heater will be hard to duplicate, especially with the departure of Elanga, who assisted five of those goals.

Elanga's replacement, Dan Ndoye, is a great individual player who drew the most fouls in Serie A last season, and Forest fended off Tottenham Hotspur to hold onto Morgan Gibbs-White (seven goals, eight assists). But their attack was based on a specific recipe that might not be replicable.

This should still be a decent team. Nuno Espirito Santo's team added defensive depth with the 6-foot-6 Cunha, who was outstanding in the Club World Cup, and their general "clutter the box and counterattack" recipe has worked for well-executing teams for ages. (So has "be really good on set pieces.") But they're adding Europa League play to the docket and probably already didn't have enough depth. -- Connelly

13. Fulham

Last season's finish: 11th (54 points, plus-0 goal differential)
Key ins: GK Benjamin Lecomte (Montpellier, 0.5 million)
Key outs: CF Carlos Vincius (Grmio, free), LW Willian (contract expired)

Key stat

As measured by the team's average age weighted by minutes played, Fulham were the oldest team in the Premier League last season, with an average age of 28.1 years. That number was actually slightly down from the season before, when they were also the oldest team in the league, just with an average age of 28.4 years. Fulham have settled into a very nice league-average hold over the past three seasons -- 164 goals scored, 168 conceded -- but they have to turn this roster over at some point.

One big question: Do you really want to let Rodrigo Muniz go?

Over the past two seasons, Rodrigo Muniz has been incredibly consistent and effective. In 2023-24, he put up 0.61 non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes. And last season? You got it: 0.61 non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes. That would've been the 15th-best mark in the league last season ... if he'd played enough.

But the 24-year-old played only 964 minutes after featuring in 1,500-plus the season before. Given that he's just entering his prime and he still hasn't started games for a full season, there's one pretty obvious way that Fulham could suddenly get a lot better -- and a lot younger -- next season. Except, it seems as if the club is considering letting him change clubs in the final weeks of the transfer window. If they do, their center-forward options will be 34-year-old Raul Jimenez ... and nobody else. -- O'Hanlon

14. Brentford

Last season's finish: 10th (56 points, plus-9 goal differential)
Key ins: AM Antoni Milambo (Feyenoord, 20m), RB Michael Kayode (Fiorentina, 17.5m), GK Caoimhin Kelleher (Liverpool, 14.8m), DM Jordan Henderson (Ajax, free transfer)
Key outs: RW Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United, 75m), DM Christian Norgaard (Arsenal, 11.6m), GK Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen, 10m)

Key stat

Brentford ranked first in xG per shot last season (0.18) and first in xG allowed per shot (0.13). They attempted fewer shots than opponents, but they took all the good ones. The influence of analytics has basically turned basketball into a dunks-and-3-pointers game, and the most analytics-friendly team in England has basically crafted a dunks-and-3s game for itself.

One big question: Can Brentford keep Brentfording no matter who leaves?

In four Premier League seasons, the Bees have finished between ninth and 16th each time. With their set piece glory and distinctive style of play, they are becoming EPL mainstays. Or at least, they did before they lost manager Thomas Frank (Spurs), star Mbeumo (Manchester United) and captain Norgaard (Arsenal). What happens now?

Set piece coach Keith Andrews was so good at his job -- and Brentford is so confident in its process -- that Andrews was promoted to replace Frank. It's safe to say they'll continue to dominate set pieces and prevent high-quality opportunities, which should be enough to save them from a relegation fight.

But while forward Yoane Wissa could run a solid attack, it appears he's pushing for a move to Newcastle or Liverpool and might not be in a Brentford shirt when the window closes. That would mean they'd return only one player with more than five goals last season (Kevin Schade) and one with more than four assists (Mikkel Damsgaard). That would definitely make this a "just survive" season. -- Connelly

15. Everton

Last season's finish: 13th (48 points, minus-2 goal differential)
Key ins: CF Thierno Barry (Villarreal, 30.0 million), CM Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Chelsea, 28.7 million), CM Carlos Alcaraz (Flamengo, 15.0 million), LB Adam Aznou (Bayern Munich, 9.0 million), GK Mark Travers (Bournemouth, 4.6 million), FW Jack Grealish (Man City, seasonlong loan)
Key outs: CF Neal Maupay (Marseille, 4.0 million), CB Mason Holgate (Al-Gharafa, free), GK Jo�o Virgnia (Sporting CP, free), RB Ashley Young (Ipswich, free), GK Asmir Begovic (Leicester, free), CF Dominic Calvert-Lewin (contract expired), AM Abdoulaye Doucour (contract expired)

Key stat

Ten players started at least half of the Premier League games for Everton last season. And 40% of those players have left the team -- for nothing. Abdoulaye Doucoure (31 starts), Ashley Young (19 starts), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (19 starts) were all allowed to leave after their contracts expired, while Jack Harrison (24 starts) has returned to Leeds after their promotion and his two-year loan to Everton.

Throw in the departures of loanees Jesper Lindstrom (15 starts) and Orel Mangala (15 starts), and the team that takes the field at Hill Dickinson Stadium is going to be quite different from the one that wrapped up the final season at Goodison Park.

One big question: Is there something we don't know about Thierno Barry?

This past season, there was one gigantic, 6-foot-5 striker who put up fantastic numbers in his age-21 season -- and it wasn't Benjamin Sesko. It was Thierno Barry:

Among players 21 and under who played at least 2,000 minutes this past season, only four produced more than Barry's 0.6 non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes: PSG's Bradley Barcola, Strasbourg's Emmanuel Emeagha, Barcelona's Lamine Yamal and Manchester City's Rayan Cherki.

Barcola would require a nine-figure transfer fee to acquire, Emeagha plays for what is essentially Chelsea's farm team, Yamal might be the best teenage soccer player ever, and Cherki just moved to Manchester City. Somehow, Everton acquired the most productive, available 21-and-under player in Europe for just 30 million. Also, Barry did this in La Liga. That's the toughest league outside of England.

With David Moyes and new ownership seemingly removing Everton from relegation fears, Barry is the kind of good-and-maybe-soon-great player at a premium position who could push Everton up the table -- or lead to a windfall and resources for a larger roster overhaul a couple of years down the line. -- O'Hanlon

16T. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last season's finish: 16th (42 points, minus-15 goal differential)
Key ins: RW Fer Lopez (Celta Vigo, 23m), RW Jhon Arias (Fluminense, 17m), LB David Moller Wolfe (AZ Alkmaar, 12m)
Key outs: CF Matheus Cunha (Manchester United, 74.2m), LB Rayan At-Nouri (Manchester City, 36.8m), LW Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad, 4m), RB Nlson Semedo (Fenerbahce, free transfer), RW Pablo Sarabia (Al-Arabi SC, free transfer)

Key stat

After Vitor Pereira was hired last December, Wolves were an almost perfectly league-average team, finishing 10th in points per game (1.5) with a plus-1 goal differential and middle-of-the-road stats in most categories. The only place they really stood out? Ground duels. They won more of them than anyone in the league, and they suffered the third-most fouls (and won lots of free kicks) because of it. But two of their three primary duelists -- Ait-Nouri and Cunha -- are gone.

One big question: What are they good at?

After a funky start to the season in which both they and their opponents overachieved dramatically against their xG numbers, Wolves indeed stabilized under Pereira. But their attack was below average in terms of both shot quality and shot quantity -- unsustainably awesome finishing from Cunha and Jorgen Strand Larsen helped to overcome that -- and they weren't nearly aggressive enough defensively to justify their random defensive catastrophes (they ranked 19th in xG allowed per shot under Pereira).

Strand Larsen and aggressive (and occasionally effective) midfielder Jo�o Gomes return, but replacing Cunha and Ait-Nouri with either unproven (Lopez and Wolfe) or unspectacular (Arias) options is a little bit scary. Wolves were well above relegation territory last season, but it's hard to make the case that this team is better in any area, and if regression strikes in the finishing department, Wolves might be near the top of the Vulnerable Incumbents list. -- Connelly

16T. West Ham United

Last season's finish: 14th (43 points, minus-16 goal differential)
Key ins: CB Jean-Clair Todibo (OGC Nice, 40.0 million), LM El Hadji Malick Diouf (Slavia Prague, 22.0 million), GK Mads Hermansen (Leicester, 20.8 million), RB Kyle Walker-Peters (Southampton, free), CF Callum Wilson (Newcastle, free)
Key outs: RW Mohammed Kudus (Tottenham, 63.8 million), RB Vladimr Coufal (TSG Hoffenheim, free), LB Aaron Cresswell (Stoke City, free), CB Kurt Zouma (contract expired), CF Danny Ings (contract expired), CF Michail Antonio (contract expired), GK Lukasz Fabianski (contract expired)

Key stat

Last season, Kudus averaged 0.35 non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes. Among players who played at least one-third of their team's minutes, that ranked 71st in the Premier League. He turned those shots and chances into 0.28 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 minutes, which ranked 87th in the Premier League. West Ham got 63.8 million in exchange for his transfer to Tottenham.

One big question: Can Graham Potter get something more out of this roster?

While the morale seemed to improve after Potter replaced Julen Lopetegui midway through the season, that was about it. Here's how the team compared under the two managers:

Lopetegui: 1.2 points per game, minus-0.6 goal differential/game, minus-0.28 xG differential/game
Potter: 1.1 points/game, minus-0.1 goal differential/game, minus-0.28 xG differential/game

Lopetegui actually got slightly better results, the games were much closer under Potter, but in terms of creating and preventing chances, it was almost the exact same under the two managers. If we strip out penalties, then Potter's xG differential improves to minus-0.24, and Lopetegui's drops to minus-0.4. That's an improvement, but it still would be the worst mark in the league among the nonrelegated sides.

Under Potter, the defense improved significantly by just about every metric, but that was paired with a very slow and conservative attack. In fact, the slow and conservative attack is part of what made the defense better. So, that's the major challenge in his first full season in charge: Can West Ham maintain the second-half defensive improvement while finding a way to attempt more than 10 shots per game? -- O'Hanlon

18. Leeds United

Last season's finish: first in the English Championship (100 points, plus-65 goal differential), automatic promotion
Key ins: DM Anton Stach (Hoffenheim, 20m), CB Jaka Bijol (Udinese, 18m), GK Lucas Perri (Lyon, 16m), CM Sean Longstaff (Newcastle, 13.8m), LB Gabriel Gudmundsson (Lille, 11.6m), CB Sebastiaan Bornauw (Wolfsburg, 6m), CF Lukas Nmecha (Wolfsburg, free transfer)
Key outs: RB Rasmus Kristensen (Eintracht Frankfurt, 6m), LB Junior Firpo (Real Betis, free transfer), CF Mateo Joseph (Mallorca, loan), CF Joe Gelhardt (Hull City, loan)

Key stat

Leeds generated 100 points and a plus-65 goal differential in the Championship last season. They were probably the best second-division team since 2005-06 Reading (106 points, plus-67). Will that matter in a world in which promoted teams all immediately go right back down?

One big question: What does a promoted team need to do to stay up?

After suffering relegation in 2023, Leeds just kept more-or-less spending like a Premier League team and held onto a number of key players. It paid off: After nearly earning promotion again in 2024, they did so with relative ease last spring.

Now comes the hard part. Parachute payments have allowed recently relegated teams to yo-yo back up, but the past six promoted teams (and 10 of the past 15) have all been sent right back down. Leeds appear to be the most well-suited to buck the trend, and manager Daniel Farke certainly has experience when it comes to building a fun identity and trying to keep a recently promoted team up. (Note: I said trying.) You aren't going to tilt the pitch and dominate possession against Premier League teams -- just ask Vincent Kompany's 2022-23 Burnley -- so Leeds probably will have to figure out how to get by with defensive organization and random bursts of quality attacking. Will it be enough? -- Connelly

19. Sunderland

Last season's finish: fourth in the English Championship (76 points, plus-14 goal differential), promoted via playoff
Key ins: CM Habib Diarra (Strasbourg, 31.5m), LW Simon Adingra (Brighton, 24.4m), CM Enzo Le Fe (Roma, 23m), RW Chemsdine Talbi (Club Brugge, 20m), CM Noah Sadiki (Union Saint-Gilloise, 17m), DM Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen, 15m), GK Robin Roefs (NEC Nijmegen, 10.5m), LB Reinildo Mandava (Atletico Madrid, free transfer), LB Arthur Masuaku (Besiktas, free transfer), CF Marc Guiu (Chelsea, loan)
Key outs: CM Jobe Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund, 30.5m), LW Tom Watson (Brighton, 12m)

Key stat

Here's a number for you: 40,704. That's Sunderland's average attendance last year. It was first in the Championship and would have slotted them right into the top 10 in the Premier League. It's good to have you back for at least a year, Black Cats.

One big question: What more could they have done this summer?

Sunderland were worse than Leeds or Burnley last season, but they also played with more of an underdog style that was less reliant on ball domination. That might be more likely to translate. They were third in the Championship in counterattacks and fouls suffered, first in ball recoveries, second in defensive interventions, second in progressive carries and third in progressive passes. Under Regis Le Bris, they ran hard and ran a lot.

The club did as well as it could to add depth, plucking primarily from clubs known to develop young talent well. Throw in a boost of veteran leadership from Xhaka and Mandava, and this was a wonderfully logical offseason. Their reward for said logic: the second-worst odds of relegation (-250 per ESPN BET, equivalent to a 71% chance). It would be great to know that smart investment and a fun playing style were enough to actually stick in the Premier League. Doesn't seem likely, though. -- Connelly

20. Burnley

Last season's finish: second in the English Championship (100 points, plus-53 goal differential), automatic promotion
Key ins: DM Lesley Ugochukwu (Chelsea, 28.7 million), CF Armando Broja (Chelsea, 23.0 million), RW Loum Tchaouna (Lazio, 15.2 million), LB Bashir Humphreys (Chelsea, 14.0 million), RW Marcus Edwards (Sporting CP, 10.0 million), LW Jaidon Anthony (Bournemouth, 9.5 million), LB Quilindschy Hartman (Feyenoord, 9.0 million), CF Zian Flemming (Millwall, 8.3 million), LW Jacob Bruun Larsen (VfB Stuttgart, 4.0 million), GK Max Wei (Karlsruher SC, 4.0 million), RB Axel Tuanzebe (Ipswich, free), RB Kyle Walker (Man City, free), GK Martin Dbravka (Newcastle, free)
Key outs: GK James Trafford (Man City, 31.2 million), CM Han-Noah Massengo (FC Augsburg, 3.0 million), LW Dara Costelloe (Wigan, 0.4 million)

Key stat

Excluding loans, per Transfermarkt data, Burnley have brought in 13 new players this offseason -- two more than any other Premier League side. They've also spent 125.65 million on transfer fees -- more than all but seven other teams in the league. Unlike last time they were promoted, when they brought in almost exclusively pre-peak-age players, a number of this summer's signings are in their primes or, like Kyle Walker, well beyond those years between 24 and 28.

One big question: Can those 13 players make up for the loss of James Trafford?