Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.
A little more than halfway home, four of baseball's current titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN Bet. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can't count on any kind of a drop-off.
In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it's going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it'll be something to behold.
Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn't mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.
You know the front-runners, so as we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let's see how things stack up behind the favorites.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).
Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That's not Raleigh's fault; it's just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that's still pretty good.
The shape of Judge's numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it's possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn't likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.
Biggest mover: Buxton wasn't in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.
Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn't going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball's most unique players deserves a little run.
After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That's driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.
National League
Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).
Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won't go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite -- the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he's Ohtani -- but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.
Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong's defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong's bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.
Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani's record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.
If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it's going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani's 174.
Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren't driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.
Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs' team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker's production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).
Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.
Skubal's blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.
In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn't over, but it's clearly Skubal's to win.
Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He's doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.
DeGrom's 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.
Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We've seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it's up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what's shaping up as a great race.
National League
Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)
Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it's hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that's worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.
Well, it is and it isn't. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.
Will it last? Consider another by-product of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.
Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.
Keep an eye on: Let's just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)
Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson's quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL's starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN Bet.
Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he's proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn't seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.
Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz had since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.
National League
Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)
Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)
Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second -- Patrick, the leader in this category last time out -- is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It's not because of failures on their part though, it's just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which ...
Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.
He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN Bet's new front-runner in this category.
Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy's knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.
Manager of the Year
American League
Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)
Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)
Overview: It's bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won't be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers' historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston's surge despite injuries and under-performances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter's eye.
National League
Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)
Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)
Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL's hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year's NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.
