EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsFor most of the past decade, the Denver Nuggets' NBA title hopes have hinged on the franchise's ability to assemble enough talent around Nikola Jokic.That quest has taken memorable twists and turns: the evolution of Jamal Murray into bona fide sidekick, the franchise-changing trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021 and the emergence of Christian Braun and Bruce Brown during the 2023 championship run. Since that title, the capped-out Nuggets have slowly bled talent and failed to reach the conference finals in the past three seasons.The constant focus on Denver's supporting cast has been a by-product of Jokic's dependability: The Serbian center has been the NBA's most consistent star of the 2020s, finishing first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons, ranking first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons and carrying Denver to eight straight playoffs and four straight 50-win campaigns.But the Nuggets are suddenly facing an alarming question to begin 2026-27: Who are they if Jokic isn't consistently playing at an MVP level? So far, Denver has been a mediocre team that's still searching for its first statement win over top-quality competition.Jokic seemingly entered the season poised to extend his run of exceptional basketball.He's still just 31 years old and was coming off a season in which he averaged a triple-double and captained the NBA's most efficient offense. In September, Jokic claimed the top spot on NBA Rank, ESPN's annual projection of the league's top 100 players, and assured reporters that he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer.And when Jokic found Cameron Johnson with an audacious behind-the-back, cross-court pass for a corner 3-pointer during an October preseason game, it was tempting to buy back into the Nuggets' chances and forget about April's demoralizing first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves.There was no obvious reason to expect Jokic's quality of play to diminish, but he's struggled at times to live up to his high standard during the first two weeks of the regular season. If the trend continues, Denver will be plunged into an existential crisis.Why this isn't the same JokerWhile all "small sample size" disclaimers apply, Jokic has gotten off to a slow start. Through seven games, he's shooting 50.4% from the field - his worst mark since 2017-18 -- and a career-low 21.9% from deep. His 26.1 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game represents his lowest output since 2019-20.There's more cause for concern once you pop the hood. Jokic's average shot distance is 12 feet (tied for the longest of his career) because just 16% of his shots have come from the basket area (a career low) while 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc (nearly a career high). Meanwhile, his free throw and offensive rebound rates are down sharply from last season and tracking toward career lows.Jokic is still the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but his efficiency and forcefulness are clearly lagging behind his box score productivity. For now, Jokic ranks sixth leaguewide in PER and 15th in win shares after ranking first and second, respectively, by those metrics last season.While a dominant Jokic led the Nuggets to a blowout win over the Raptors on Wednesday, he hasn't maintained that level of impact on winning or command of the paint on a night-to-night basis. By extension, the Nuggets' offense hasn't looked like the juggernaut we've come to expect.The win over the Raptors, in which Jokic posted 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, provided hope that he is merely pacing himself to start a long campaign and that his poor outside shooting will prove to be a short-term slump. Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence this week that Jokic's play will pick up with time."Some of the shots we're so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it's a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they're coming," Adelman said after Monday's loss to the Portland Trail Blazers."This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that's ever lived. I'll die on that sword."Why these aren't the same NuggetsDenver's top-heavy roster was not designed to compensate for any slippage from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 to start the season -- including an 0-3 mark against teams with winning records -- and have heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. "I think those fans who booed us ... they're not welcome anymore," Jokic said after Denver's overtime win against the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener.Jokic's individual struggles have exposed the flaws around him: Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season due to injury, Johnson continues to underperform, and a new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored on a regular basis.With Jokic drifting further from the hoop on offense to start the season, the Nuggets ranked 26th in points in the paint prior to their demolition of the Raptors. That looms as a potentially serious problem because Denver also ranks 28th in 3-point attempts per game. Adelman wants improvement in both facets, saying that he will continue making a "concerted effort" to establish Jokic in the post while also encouraging his role players to "get up more 3s."But the Nuggets' longstanding winning formula -- an elite offense compensating for a so-so defense -- has looked shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, Denver's offense ranks 11th entering Thursday. The Nuggets haven't ranked outside the top 10 since Jokic was a rookie."It's too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray]," Adelman said Monday. "I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves."Adelman's job description requires that he keep the faith in his role players, but he's working with a severely untested bench.Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise, but budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Meanwhile, offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from having any real postseason impact.All these new faces serve as a reminder of how few key figures remain from the Nuggets' 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title, and Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.Denver sought to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives given that Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts, but those efforts have largely proven unsuccessful. Similarly, the Nuggets' recent draft history has featured more misses than hits.Rather than replenishing Jokic's supporting cast with waves of young talent, Denver has settled for a new batch of free agent fliers every summer. Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson have all drifted in and out of Denver in recent years, making little impact.Add it all up, and it's no surprise that Denver's bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. That's a real drag for Jokic to overcome, even if he is able to recapture his top form.Why Denver lacks real options to improveTo make matters worse, Denver's cap crunch won't ease any time soon.If Jokic does sign an extension next summer (worth up to $360 million over five years), he will go on the long-term books next to Murray and Gordon, who are both under contract through 2028-29. Braun's five-year, $125 million extension, which just kicked in this season, is another quiet killer to the Nuggets' financial health.They would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon and Braun given their salaries, and they can't afford to part with Murray given his strong play and track record. None of Denver's younger players have played well enough to generate a significant trade return.More importantly, if Jokic's impact continues to lag, the Nuggets will need to consider negotiating rather than simply handing him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.Signing a five-year extension next summer would carry Jokic through his age-36 season, and there is no recent precedent for a center playing at an MVP level that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship in his age-37 season, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount that season -- a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.Jokic's slow start has made it clear Denver lacks a succession plan should its franchise center encounter meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. These Nuggets were constructed to support Jokic as best they could under the assumption that he would once again handle the heavy lifting. There's no rising superstar waiting to receive the baton, and Denver has already traded away its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.For Jokic and the Nuggets, something will have to give. There's no plausible path for Denver to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, make the necessary improvements to his supporting cast and avoid the NBA's second apron penalties. The Milwaukee Bucks reached a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer and elected to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.To this point, Jokic has resisted applying pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no indication he wants to leave Denver.While superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in hopes of improving their championship chances, Jokic could always follow the Dirk Nowitzki model. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has plenty of good reasons to reward Jokic's loyalty as he ages. But this season has offered a glimpse at the organization's murky future: Jokic can only mask everything that's plaguing the Nuggets when he's playing at an MVP level.When he's not, Denver's whole plan starts to fall apart.
