EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsTwo-loss Alabama ranks fifth despite a good portion of the nation watching Tennessee pound the Crimson Tide not too long ago. Notre Dame is seven spots below where it ranks in the AP poll and really better beat Miami this weekend. And of course, the College Football Playoff committee is once again refusing to watch the Group of 6. Or Wake Forest. My goodness, watch Wake Forest.The first CFP rankings of the 2026 season are out, and there are plenty of surprises and sources of epic frustration. Then again, none of this matters much because, of the 25 teams on this list, at least 24 will either fall short of a CFP berth or fall short in the playoff.This season has, more than most, given us stark reminders that everyone involved in the title race is an incomplete team with semi-obvious -- and potentially fatal -- flaws. Let's therefore work through one of my favorite exercises: For each team in the inaugural CFP rankings, let's talk about what's going to eventually hold it back. Because of the nature of competition, I'll get to be right about 96% of them at worst! But from top-ranked Miami to the teams barely holding on to playoff hope, everyone has their issues.1. Miami Hurricanes (8-0)SP+ ranking: fifth (first on offense, 23rd on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Notre Dame (Week 10), Duke (Week 11)Fatal flaw: A crumbling defense. Miami's offense might be the best in the country; it also might need to be. In the past three games, the Hurricanes' defense has allowed 31 points per game and 6.6 yards per play to offenses averaging just a 44.0 ranking in offensive SP+. What happens when they play Notre Dame's No. 2 offense? The run defense is still solid, but the pass defense is down to 120th in QBR allowed. Missing injured corner OJ Frederique Jr. has hurt, but that's not a new development. The Canes are almost assured of a CFP berth, but their stay won't be long if the leaks aren't plugged.2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)SP+ ranking: first (fourth on offense, second on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Ole Miss (Week 10), Missouri (Week 11), at South Carolina (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Turnovers. The Dawgs are crushing the high-level stats this year: They're fourth in yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed; they're fourth in success rate and 13th in success rate allowed. But they can't stop threatening to turn the ball over. Their interception rate (1.8%) ranks a decent but unspectacular 41st nationally, but they've fumbled an incredible 14 times. That's tied for 126th in the nation. They've suffered eight fumbles in the past three games alone. They've muffed four punts, but eight other players have fumbled at least once. It's the strangest of epidemics.3. Utah Utes (8-0)SP+ ranking: ninth (seventh on offense, 21st on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: BYU (Week 10), at Arizona (Week 11)Fatal flaw: The big-play battle. The Utes are efficiency machines on both sides of the ball (10th in success rate* on offense, 15th on defense), but the successful plays they allow on defense are big ones: 6.5% of opponents' plays gain at least 20 yards (80th nationally), as do 19.1% of opponents' completions (115th). When Colorado nearly pulled a major upset of the Utes in Week 7, the Buffaloes had nine gains of 15-plus yards in the second half alone. Big plays create easy points, and it will be difficult for the Utes to win three or four playoff games if their opponents are creating more easy points than they are.(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)4. Indiana Hoosiers (8-1)SP+ ranking: sixth (27th on offense, first on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: USC (Week 11), at Washington (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Quarterback play. In Josh Hoover's first six Indiana starts, he completed 68% of his passes with 17 TDs, no interceptions and a healthy average of 9.6 yards per dropback. But over the past three weeks, as he has begun to pack on some injuries, he has completed just 36 of 77 passes (46.8%) and averaged 5.9 yards per dropback. He was benched in Saturday's narrow win over Minnesota, and while backup Grant Wilson went just 9-for-17, he was a clear upgrade. Indiana hasn't cleared 16 points in regulation in these three games, and if Hoover can't get right soon, the Hoosiers won't either.5. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)SP+ ranking: eighth (11th on offense, 16th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at LSU (Week 10)Fatal flaw: Negative plays. Led by tantalizing redshirt freshman quarterback Keelon Russell, Alabama averaged 49.6 PPG over its first five contests. Defenses almost always adapt to young quarterbacks, however, especially in the SEC. In losses to Georgia and Tennessee, Russell saw his INT rate rise (from 1.9% in wins to 3.4%), his sack rate rise (from 7.4% to 13.2%) and his average yards per dropback plummet (from 9.7 to 4.8). There's only one elite defense left on the regular-season schedule, but it's LSU's -- the Tigers create more negative plays than anyone.6. Kentucky Wildcats (7-1)SP+ ranking: 34th (29th on offense, 40th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Tennessee (Week 10), at Missouri (Week 12), Louisville (Week 13)Fatal flaw: Stats. There are lots of ways to win a football game. Winning lots of football games usually requires a sturdy statistical backbone, however, and Kentucky doesn't have that. The Wildcats have achieved a high CFP ranking thanks to three one-score SEC wins, but they're 42nd in points per drive and 88th in points allowed per drive. On third downs, they're 114th on offense (33.7%) and 131st on defense (48.3%). They make bold plays at key times, and Will Stein has them believing. But if you don't appease the stat gods, they'll eventually smite you.7. Texas Longhorns (6-2)SP+ ranking: seventh (19th on offense, fifth on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Missouri (Week 10), at LSU (Week 11), at Texas A&M (Week 13)Fatal flaw: I'm sorry, but it's Arch Manning. The Texas defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per play (first nationally) and 1.1 points per drive (sixth). But the offense let the Horns down dramatically in a pair of losses and nearly did so against Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The run game has undoubtedly been disappointing, but Manning made devastating mistakes late in both losses (and again against Ole Miss), and he's currently 64th in Total QBR, barely ahead of Stanford's Davis Warren and Vanderbilt freshman Jared Curtis. He throws too many picks and takes too many sacks, and it has held the Horns back.8. UCLA Bruins (8-0)SP+ ranking: 15th (32nd on offense, ninth on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Michigan (Week 12), USC (Week 13)Fatal flaw: The forward pass. UCLA's offense ranks 115th in passing success rate and 78th in yards per dropback. Since Ty Dieffenbach took over at QB for the injured Nico Iamaleava, those rankings are 106th and 77th, respectively. Thanks to an excellent run game led by Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods, the Bruins stay on schedule beautifully, but on third-and-7 or more, they're just 3-for-17 in Dieffenbach's starts. Their strengths (run game, elite defense) are so strong that such a glaring weakness hasn't yet been punished. How much do you trust that to continue in the CFP?9. BYU Cougars (7-1)SP+ ranking: 14th (26th on offense, 20th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Utah (Week 10), Baylor (Week 11)Fatal flaw: Warning signs on defense. BYU's biggest issue at this moment is an inability to keep running backs healthy, but in theory, star LJ Martin's return to full strength (assuming it happens) fixes that. So let's instead point out that the defense is becoming less than the sum of its parts. The Cougars allowed 20 points against an Arizona State offense starting two freshmen in the backfield -- they sacked Jake Fette six times, but Cardae Mack rushed for 123 yards -- and they couldn't stop UCF and Keyone Jenkins when it mattered the most either. They'll need far more sharpness against Utah this weekend.10. Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)SP+ ranking: 13th (fifth on offense, 39th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Georgia (Week 10)Fatal flaw: Do you trust the defense? Ole Miss has won three of four since giving up 52 points in a shellacking against Florida. Perhaps even more encouraging: The Rebels have allowed 17 or fewer points in all three of those recent wins. Trinidad Chambliss doesn't need loads of help, but he's getting it. Still, looking specifically at this successful stretch, they're giving up 20-plus yards on 7.3% of snaps (107th) and allowing 5.9 yards per dropback (46th). And with the game on the line, they couldn't stop Raleek Brown and a Texas run game that has otherwise struggled.11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)SP+ ranking: third (second on offense, eighth on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Miami (Week 10), SMU (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Third downs. Like Georgia, Notre Dame gets most of the big things right. On offense, the Fighting Irish are third in points per drive, with almost no negative plays. On defense, they allow gains of 20-plus yards just 2.7% of the time, lowest in the country. It's strange, then, how mediocre their third-down numbers are: Despite 73% of their third downs requiring 6 or fewer yards to go, they're just 40th in conversion rate on offense (43.5%), and despite 61% of opponents' third downs requiring 7 or more yards, they're 76th in conversion rate on defense (38.4%). Those numbers should be much better.12. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2)SP+ ranking: second (eighth on offense, third on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Oregon (Week 10), Northwestern (Week 11), at Nebraska (Week 12), Michigan (Week 13)Fatal flaw: The run game. With freshman QB Luke Fahey making his first career start against USC, the Buckeyes actually moved the ball relatively well via run and pass, but the defense suffered a couple of key letdowns and the offense went just 4-for-11 on third-and-4 or more. Ohio State still ranks just 98th in yards per carry (not including sacks), and per SP+ every remaining defense on its schedule is better than USC's. Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson will desperately need to keep Fahey out of third-and-longs to keep Ohio State on track for as long as Julian Sayin is out.13. Tennessee Volunteers (6-2)SP+ ranking: 11th (23rd on offense, 19th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Kentucky (Week 10), at Texas A&M (Week 11), LSU (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Quarterback play. Tennessee is basically the SEC's UCLA this year: excellent in the ground game and super aggressive on defense with an extremely unenviable QB situation. Freshman Faizon Brandon got benched after suffering far too many negative plays; in three starts, replacement George MacIntyre has completed just 49% of passes thrown at least 5 yards downfield -- he's 1-for-4 on passes of 20-plus yards -- and his Total QBR is a dreadful 21.6. There are too many good opponents left on the schedule for the passing game to be that limited.14. LSU Tigers (6-2)SP+ ranking: fourth (sixth on offense, sixth on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Alabama (Week 10), Texas (Week 11), at Tennessee (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Big plays. LSU ranks ninth in points per drive on both offense and defense; the Tigers are top-15 in success rate on both sides of the ball, too. There have been turnover issues here and there, but they've scored at least 31 points in seven of eight games. What might hold Lane Kiffin's team back the most as it faces the three best defenses on its schedule, however, is a lack of major explosiveness. Sam Leavitt averages a decent but unspectacular 12.1 yards per completion, and lead back Dilin Jones averages just 4.4 yards per carry with almost no big gainers.15. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1)SP+ ranking: 10th (10th on offense, 24th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Oklahoma State (Week 11), at Baylor (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Quarterback play. As Boston College and Florida State learned in recent years, Thomas Castellanos is typically a short-term answer at QB. Freshly eligible after yet another court ruling, Castellanos lit a spark under the Tech run game, and it got the Red Raiders past Arizona 34-26. But he was also just 11-for-24 passing, and he felt more like a stopgap than a solution. That he was in the lineup at all tells you that regular starter Will Hammond is making too many mistakes, and as with last season, it sure appears the QB position isn't going to allow Tech to think about much of a playoff run.16. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-1)SP+ ranking: 16th (18th on offense, 29th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at SMU (Week 11), Duke (Week 13)Fatal flaw: A spectacularly soft pass defense. It should be pretty clear by now that Wake Forest has a playoff-worthy offense. With a rigorous bend-don't-break routine on defense, the Demon Deacons have allowed just 7.8 points per game over the past month, albeit while facing only one offense ranked higher than 82nd in SP+. But bend-don't-break is a lot harder to pull off against playoff offenses, and the fact that the Demon Deacons allow a 44.1% passing success rate (105th) and a 74.5% completion rate (138th, dead last) will probably catch up to them.17. Houston Cougars (6-2)SP+ ranking: 26th (13th on offense, 46th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Baylor (Week 13)Fatal flaw: Missed tackles. Houston both runs and passes efficiently and converts third downs at the highest rate in the country (60.0%). The passing game packs some pop, too, thanks to Amare Thomas and Koby Young (combined: 11 TDs, 16.4 yards per catch). But no defense in the FBS misses more tackles. For the season, the Cougars' 84.2% tackle success rate ranks 119th, but over the past five weeks, that rate has fallen to a ghastly 78.6%, worst in the nation. Houston missed 20 tackles in a costly loss to Utah. The offense had its own failures against the Utes, but tackling is an increasing issue.18. Missouri Tigers (6-2)SP+ ranking: 17th (37th on offense, 11th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Texas (Week 10), at Georgia (Week 11), Kentucky (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Offensive consistency. Mizzou has been good at pretty much everything at some point in 2026. But the Tigers never really know what they're getting week-to-week from the offense. They produced a success rate of 46% against Florida and 30% against Ole Miss' shaky defense. They averaged 10.5 yards per dropback against Florida and 4.6 against Troy. They've averaged 5.6 yards per carry (no sacks) or more against three SEC opponents but a dreadful 3.1 in losses to Ole Miss and Mississippi State. They could play their way into the CFP over the next three weeks, but a little reliability would go a long way.19. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)SP+ ranking: 19th (56th on offense, seventh on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Northwestern (Week 10), Nebraska (Week 13)Fatal flaw: It's still the passing game, I think. I think I placed myself firmly in the 90th percentile of Hank Brown admirers when I placed him on this week's Heisman of the Week list and noted how well he has done relative to the expectations of the typical Iowa quarterback. I almost feel like it's a betrayal, then, to note that the Hawkeyes still don't pass at a playoff standard. They're just 81st in yards per dropback (6.5), and only 11.2% of their completions have gained 20-plus yards (129th). In two losses, Brown averaged 5.6 yards per dropback with one TD pass and three INTs. Not good enough. Sorry, Hank.20. USC Trojans (7-2)SP+ ranking: 20th (12th on offense, 38th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Indiana (Week 11), at UCLA (Week 13)Fatal flaw: Horrific pass defense. After allowing 41 points primarily to Oregon backup quarterback Dylan Raiola, USC's defense has at least stabilized a bit. The Trojans have allowed just 21.5 PPG since, which isn't amazing considering the caliber of offenses, but also isn't bad. But even focusing just on this four-game span -- which featured only one top-50 offense per SP+ (and that one was Ohio State with a freshman QB) -- USC ranks just 61st in yards allowed per dropback (6.1) and 89th in percentage of opponent completions gaining 20-plus yards (17.1%). The defense is still a weakness, in other words.21. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3)SP+ ranking: 24th (20th on offense, 41st on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Texas A&M (Week 10), Georgia (Week 12)Fatal flaw: Turnovers. Learning to trust South Carolina is generally a fraught exercise, but there's no question the Gamecocks have looked good of late. LaNorris Sellers is flicking 50-yard bombs again, and all is right with the world after three straight wins. But they're winning despite serious turnover problems, and there's a major degree of difficulty to that. They rank 97th in turnover rate on offense (2.1%), 127th on defense (1.1%) and 125th in overall turnover margin (minus-6). They were minus-5 in their three losses, and they're even minus-1 in wins.22. Arizona Wildcats (6-2)SP+ ranking: 21st (17th on offense, 32nd on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: Utah (Week 11)Fatal flaw: Takeaways. Brent Brennan's Wildcats suffered a major missed opportunity against Texas Tech last week. The offense went missing for a few key, late drives, but a little bit more opportunism would have gone a long way. In losses to BYU and Tech, the Wildcats forced just one turnover, and they've forced just seven all season (107th). There's some poor fortune here: While teams tend to intercept about 21% of all passes defended (INTs + breakups), Arizona has managed only 7% (two of 29). But for a team that creates high levels of disruption, the Wildcats don't force as many turnover chances as you would expect either.23. Oregon Ducks (5-3)SP+ ranking: 12th (24th on offense, 18th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Ohio State (Week 10), Michigan (Week 11), Washington (Week 13)Fatal flaw: Three-and-outs. It's technically not too late for Oregon to put together a playoff case: Winning out would get the Ducks to 9-3 with wins over five current SP+ top-30 teams. But the offense just hasn't been consistent enough since quarterback Dante Moore got hurt. Nothing has gone reliably well, but maybe the biggest issue has been getting drives off the ground: Oregon has gone three-and-out on 42.9% of drives without Moore (135th). Last week was encouraging -- after Drew Mehringer's dismissal, Oregon had just three three-and-outs with Jay Johnson calling plays -- but 25% still isn't great, and it's just one game.24. Florida Gators (5-3)SP+ ranking: 44th (33rd on offense, 49th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: at Kentucky (Week 11)Fatal flaw: Creating negative plays. We've seen moments of genuine brilliance from Florida's offense, and even after recent stumbles, the Gators are still 23rd in points per drive and sixth in completion rate. But the offense has indeed backslid, averaging just 17.8 PPG in the past four games, and the defense isn't improving enough to keep up. The Gators stop just 13.6% of opponents' rushes at or near the line of scrimmage (131st), and they've picked off just 1.5% of opponents' passes (105th). The pass rush is decent, but there's not nearly enough overall disruption. And they need more of it than ever.25. Boise State Broncos (7-1)SP+ ranking: 31st (14th on offense, 57th on defense)SP+ top-40 opponents remaining: noneFatal flaw: Defensive implosions. BSU's offense has lots to offer thanks to QB Maddux Madsen (assuming he's healthy after a scary-looking injury last week) and running back Dylan Riley, and the Broncos' aggressive defense creates gains of zero or negative yards 40.6% of the time (fourth nationally). But no contender gives up bigger big plays than the Broncos: 8.0% of opponents' snaps gain at least 20 yards (129th), and they're susceptible to gashes via either run or pass. They've played against four top-60 offenses, per SP+, and they've allowed 7.8 yards per play. That flaw is as fatal as it gets.
