EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAre you excited for NFL Week 9? It's the last week before the trade deadline next Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. It's also the official midway point of the season. Feel that little bite in the air? Playoff football will soon cometh.Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.Subscribe: 'ESPN's Leaguewide'This week, I'll start with my headliner expectation for the 2026 trade deadline, irresponsibly put my faith in a 3-5 Buccaneers team and wonder just how much the Chargers would get if they traded Justin Herbert.Jump to:RB trades are coming before the deadlineCowboys should trade PickensIrving will lead the Bucs to NFC South titleSteelers are going to win the AFC NorthThree teams should try to trade for HerbertCampanile will be a head coach candidateBears could be dangerous with SimmonsSome extra trade inklingsI think ... the running back movement will be the story of the trade deadline The splashiest name included in the 2026 NFL trade deadline rumor mill is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.He is a special player who can have the same impact on a healthy offense that Saquon Barkley had for the Eagles in 2024 and Derrick Henry for the Ravens in the same year. Barkley and Henry had rushing success rates of 35.4% and 37.8%, respectively, and averaged 4.2 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively, in the two seasons before they joined their new squads. Over the past two seasons, Taylor has a 41.2% success rate and is averaging 4.7 yards per pop. His recent body of work, along with the glimmer of elite play we saw in the early parts of the 2025 season, indicates that he can be a transformative addition.As such, the Colts are -- unsurprisingly -- demanding a big return for Taylor. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Colts' asking price is something in line with the Christian McCaffrey trade package from 2023 -- a second-round pick, a third-round pick and some more capital.If Taylor gets dealt for that much compensation to a team such as the Vikings, Giants, Broncos or Bengals (or a surprise team such as the Packers and Seahawks), it's possible the running back trade market will freeze up. If the Colts get that much in return for Taylor, what could the Titans get for Tony Pollard or the Jets for Breece Hall?Jets head coach Aaron Glenn shut down trade speculation involving Hall after the 2-6 Jets' loss to the Raiders this past week, saying, "We're in the business of keeping good players, and he's one of our better players. So, Breece will still be here."I'm inclined to believe Glenn. Then again, Glenn could be on his way out, and I don't think general manager Darren Mougey would lament making Glenn look silly by trading Hall should he receive a big offer from a team that misses out on Taylor.Similarly, I find the reports that the Eagles would never trade Barkley reasonable, but not absolute. Barkley was asked if the front office told him he'd be an Eagle beyond the deadline, and he responded, "It was mentioned to me." Of course, that's before the Eagles lost another game -- to the 1-4-1 Commanders. I would put the chances of Barkley not getting traded somewhere between 95-99%, but Roseman is the sort of GM to never say never.The more I look at the landscape, the more I see an environment ripe for running back trades. The need is great.Denver is entrusting a lot of backfield snaps to a fourth-round rookie in Jonah Coleman (whom I like quite a bit), but the Broncos need their running game to be more dangerous given the limitations on the Bo Nix-led passing attack. Quarterback Kyler Murray was Minnesota's leading rusher against the Lions, as the Vikings struggle to get their running game going to open their play-action pass attack. Josh Jacobs returned for the Packers from the commissioner exempt list, but he still might be suspended and hasn't been the same since coming back. The Bengals are looking for an upgrade over Chase Brown, as are the Giants with Cam Skattebo, whom they don't seem to trust to be a three-down player.But the market is paralyzed by Taylor, as all these teams stare down the Colts and their towering demands. Someone will soon break from the ranks and trade for Pollard, a steady, three-down back who has reminded the league of his characteristic energy after consecutive games of 100-plus rushing yards. (I vote for the Giants, as assistant coach Brian Callahan has familiarity with Pollard.) The Cardinals should trade someone off their roster, as Bam Knight, Tyler Allgeier and the soon-to-be-healthy James Conner all don't need to split time while rookie Jeremiyah Love gets healthy. Jaguars running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has lost the timeshare to Bhayshul Tuten, but Rodriguez is still a solid player who would pair well with a twitchy counterpart (looking at you, Cincinnati).If I were general manager of the Vikings or the Packers -- both looking to make a deep NFC playoff run but terrified of handing the ball off more than 10 times a game -- I'd be making calls beyond the obvious options from the Colts and Titans.Raiders second-year running back Ashton Jeanty was all but benched in Week 8 -- rookie Mike Washington Jr. outcarried him 25-2 -- and Jeanty hasn't looked particularly healthy this season. Can a playoff contender acquire the former first-rounder for a Day 2 pick, rest him up and get him healthy for the postseason?The Rams are funneling carries to Blake Corum more boldly than ever; he has 29 touches to Kyren Williams' 35 over the past two weeks, which are notably the two weeks after Williams said the Rams' energy was fluctuating drive over drive "probably because I'm not out there." I think the Rams like their 1-2 punch, but I'd definitely call to make sure.The Chargers have three playable backs (Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell), and that is three more than their win total. The Seahawks also have three playable backs (Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson) on top of third-down pass protector George Holani. Travis Etienne Jr. will soon return from injured reserve to rejoin Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller in the Saints' three-player backfield. Does Chuba Hubbard move if the Panthers fall to 3-5 next Sunday?There seems to be way more backs possibly available than during previous deadlines. The trade deadline frequently features running back movement. In four of the past nine seasons, at least two running backs were traded in October and November. In 2022, a whopping six running backs exchanged teams. This position has contracts that are fairly fungible and roles that can be easily catered to skill sets; it's easy to move them midseason.What I think is rare(r) this season is the need. Four clear contenders (Broncos, Bengals, Packers and Vikings) have serious run-game concerns, and there are running back depth charts that can be substantially improved. Taylor can go to only one of those teams, and the other three will be left scrambling for Pollard. Once that dust settles, the desperation could jack up the cost and muster a surprise, big-ticket trade.Or Taylor won't be dealt because the Colts hold firm on their demands and find no trade partner. And then, nothing else happens. But that wouldn't be an interesting column and sure would be a disappointment come Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET. So we won't think about that, will we?I think ... George Pickens forces his way out of Dallas by the deadlineI understand academically that the 3-5 Cowboys are not planning to trade anyone this deadline. Executive vice president Stephen Jones said on the radio this week that they're open to acquiring a player at the deadline to help salvage this season.I think that is about as short-sighted an approach as can be. The Cowboys are already massively leveraged against their future draft capital. Thanks to the Micah Parsons trade, Dallas still has a first-round pick in the 2027 NFL draft. However, that pick will be the worst of either the Cowboys' or Packers' selection -- and Green Bay looks like a team that might pick in the high 20s this year. The Cowboys are missing a third, a fifth and a sixth in the upcoming draft after the trades for Broderick Jones, Pickens and Joey Porter Jr. -- and are down a 2028 second-round pick as well.Dallas has 10 total picks over the next two drafts; the next closest are the Rams, Texans and Bears with 12 apiece. The Cowboys are not projected to earn compensatory selections in the 2027 draft, so no extra picks are coming. The Cowboys can't cut much payroll in the upcoming seasons because they lack the draft capital.Over the Cap has the Cowboys 22nd out of 32 teams in 2027 cap space and 25th in 2028 cap space. Dallas' books are laden with veteran contracts. By average annual value, the Cowboys have the second-most expensive quarterback (Dak Prescott), the sixth-most expensive receiver (CeeDee Lamb), the 10th-most expensive tight end (Jake Ferguson), the second-most expensive guard (Tyler Smith), the second-most expensive defensive tackle (Quinnen Williams) and the 10th-most expensive cornerback (DaRon Bland). Oh, and the most expensive kicker (Brandon Aubrey).These contracts give the Cowboys an opportunity to convert base salary into bonus money and create short-term cap space -- a technique they've largely avoided, but deployed earlier this season when they restructured the deals for Ferguson, Bland and defensive tackle Kenny Clark. Those players are also three of the biggest veteran disappointments on an underwhelming roster.The Cowboys' future spending is so significant because Dallas has two enormous rising free agents: Pickens and Porter. Pickens was acquired after the 2025 draft. The Cowboys did not sign him to an extension before his career-best 93-catch, 1,429-yard season and franchise-tagged him shortly thereafter. Pickens is playing on the tag (worth $27.3 million) and will either hit free agency or receive the second franchise tag (worth about $32.8 million) in 2027.The Cowboys can't swallow another $33 million on their 2027 cap -- certainly not if they'd like to retain the tag to use on Porter, who is also playing without an extension and would like to be paid upwards of $30 million per year. Remember: they get only one tag per year.Can the Cowboys extend Pickens at a market rate? That'll be, conservatively, over $33 million APY -- worryingly close to Lamb's $34 million per year. Not only might that number introduce some uneasiness in the Cowboys' wide receiver depth chart, but they would be paying it to a player who has cleared 100 yards just once this season and is known for declining effort and interest when he isn't getting the football.I can't figure out how it makes sense for the Cowboys to keep Pickens on their roster in 2027. The money doesn't add up from a cap-management perspective, nor does the on-field opportunity and impact at that contract rate. And if the Cowboys' ownership doesn't see this, perhaps Pickens will.Pickens ran a route on only 51.4% of the Cowboys' dropbacks Sunday against the Cardinals -- easily his lowest of his Dallas tenure. Jones said that Pickens has had some nagging health problems that have contributed to the diminished usage, which is plausible. Also plausible: Pickens doesn't see a future with the Cowboys this season or next season, and wants out.I understand all of the reporting out of Dallas. The Cowboys don't intend to move anyone, and they're still competing for the NFC East in 2026. It would be out of character for Jones to move Pickens at this stage. But some things are so painfully obvious that I have to ignore the public PR and read between the lines. If Pickens and Dallas have no long-term future, why wait for the compensatory draft pick in 2028? Why go through all the necessary rigamarole to preserve that comp pick when they can get a guaranteed third-round pick in a trade now -- and likely more! The Chiefs would do it.I'm calling my shot here: The Cowboys lose to the Colts in Week 9, and at 3-6, Pickens is frustrated enough that the Cowboys make a trade before next Tuesday.I think ... Bucky Irving will lead the Buccaneers to an NFC South titleBucky is back!There are few players as fun to watch as Bucky Irving. Pure juice. He's quicker and stronger than you realize. When Irving hit as a rookie in 2024 -- a fourth-round scatback suddenly capable of enduring a full workload of 15 to 20 touches -- he was the surprise engine that powered then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen's head coaching bid and Baker Mayfield's career renaissance. The Buccaneers ranked in the top five in pretty much every offensive metric -- points per drive, EPA per play, success rate and EPA per drive.Then disaster struck. Irving injured his foot and shoulder in Week 4 of the 2025 season, missed seven games and was a shadow of himself when he returned. Irving's shoulder required offseason surgery, and his availability for camp and 2026 Week 1 was, at times, in doubt.These past few games have been a reminder of what Irving looks like at full strength. Over the past four weeks, Irving leads the league in carries (91) and rushing yards (487). He is one of nine players (minimum 50 carries) averaging at least 5 yards per rush, and his teammate Kenny Gainwell is one of the other eight.Irving and Gainwell are such a fun one-two punch because they both have quickness behind the line of scrimmage, but neither fears contact or makes tepid decisions. This allows the Buccaneers to run a lot of gap-scheme concepts; NFL Next Gen Stats has them running more power and counter runs than any other offense, save for the Texans. Irving and Gainwell have the decisiveness to hit the hole quickly when it opens, but also the agility to bounce to a backside when the intended gap gets gummed up.Here's an impressive read by Irving in the win against the Falcons on Sunday. The Bucs want to snap this ball with the tight end in motion and wham, an unblocked defensive tackle (Zach Harrison, No. 96). Ideally, the run hits between the tackles. But the Falcons have called a blitz, and the stunt from Harrison and incoming blitzers close the daylight on the inside. Irving is calm and shrewd. He springs frontside, into the blitz as the safety Xavier Watts (31) sprints down into the first level, but veteran receiver Chris Godwin Jr. pins him. Irving stays tight to his blocks and cuts upfield as the linebackers overpursue, then cuts again against the grain as Jessie Bates III tries to tackle him in space. Irving's ability to keep his speed up while chaining moves is what turns this run from a positive gain into a huge one (46 yards).That's what it looks like when it's messy. When it hits as intended, such as on this counter run, Irving does a wonderful job pacing his run behind his pullers and holding Falcons rookie linebacker Kendal Daniels (53) in place behind the line, before suddenly springing into the hole and beating him to the corner. Only that's not Irving. It's Gainwell. Did I get you?Gainwell and Irving's redundancy might at first seem counterintuitive, but it actually helps the Bucs from a scheme perspective. Because both can catch passes, the Buccaneers can line them up on interchangeable downs without tipping run or pass pre-snap. Of course, with smaller backs, the concern is overuse. Irving has 26 games since the start of 2024 with at least 15 touches -- among sub-200-pound backs, only James Cook III and De'Von Achane have more. But Gainwell is fourth with five such games, and the fact that both can be trusted for 15-plus touches allows them to spell one another well.The entire playbook is open for the Buccaneers with either of their backs on the field. It's hard to run the ball on 92% of your offensive plays, as the Bucs did in their historic 16-0 win over the Falcons in the rain Sunday, without that deep of a bag of plays and a highly effective RB2.As they roll forward, the Buccaneers will continue to use Gainwell liberally, but the heartbeat of this team is once again Irving, as it was in 2024. This offensive line, which was shaky in September, is rounding into form as the Buccaneers get a career-best season from center Graham Barton and a return to health for right guard Cody Mauch. The duo of left tackle Tristan Wirfs and right tackle Luke Goedeke remains among the league's elite despite minimal fanfare. Wirfs especially has a Trent Williams-esque effect on the Buccaneers' rushing game: They average 5.8 yards per carry on runs to the left. Only the 49ers are higher, at 5.9.The Bucs have two blocking tight ends in Payne Durham and Bauer Sharp -- the latter is a sixth-round rookie who is emerging as a stud point-of-attack player -- who allow them to get even more diverse in their backfield alignments. All of the pieces are in place for the Buccaneers to win on the ground week after week -- perhaps not for 324 yards every time, of course. It's important to be realistic.That running game, plus the Buccaneers' stiff defense (first in EPA per drive, second in success rate), is the best model for consistent team success in the NFC South. The Falcons (3-5) occasionally look that way, but their defense is more volatile than Todd Bowles' unit. The 3-4 Panthers' offense at times appears the most balanced, but not reliably so. This division belongs to the 3-5 Buccaneers, who are only a half-game out of the lead. And maybe they win it at a meager 8-9 or 9-8 as Mayfield is asked to do more and the inconsistency in this passing attack is exposed.I would hate to play this team in the playoffs. The Buccaneers can drag you into a mudfight and win it on the back of their resurgent scatback. Football is just so much more fun when Bucky Irving is doing his thing.I think ... the Steelers are going to win the AFC NorthI just told you how I think the 3-5 Buccaneers will win the NFC South because they can run the ball and play great defense.I think the 6-2 Steelers will win the AFC North because they can run the ball and play great defense.This Steelers' rushing attack is the stuff of fever dreams. They lead the league in EPA per rush (0.11) and are second in explosive rush rate (10.9%). Jaylen Warren is enjoying a career-best season. He's second in the league in rushing yardage and rushing yardage over expectation, and leads the league in yards per carry at 5.9.It's easy to think of the Steelers as a heavy-personnel team, but it isn't the case. The Steelers are in multi-tight end sets only 33% of the time (league average is 37.1%), and they rarely use two-back sets. The Steelers are at their best out of 11 personnel (three receiver sets). They're averaging 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks seventh in the NFL.Of course, when the one tight end on the field is the 6-foot-7 and 300-something-pound Darnell Washington, 11 personnel can feel like a jumbo set with an additional offensive lineman. But Washington doesn't tip the scales so dramatically. In fact, the Steelers average 5.9 yards per rush when Washington is off the field (compared with 4.6 when he's on it).This is all about the Steelers' line, which is one of the only groups in the league with an average starter or better at all five spots. The Steelers switched up the right side of their offensive line before Week 3, subbing rookie tackle Max Iheanachor in for Dylan Cook and starting Brock Hoffman for injured right guard Spencer Anderson. Since Week 3, they have led the league in yards per carry and runs for positive yards over expectation. To that right side, they're averaging a whopping 6.2 yards per carry on 11.2 carries per game.The Steelers devastated the Browns in Week 8 with trap runs all game, weaponizing the Browns' attack-style front against them but inviting defensive tackles upfield -- then hit them with thunderous strikes from incoming linemen. Watch as the Steelers' interior intentionally leaves defensive tackles unblocked to climb up to the second level, creating big avenues for Warren and Rico Dowdle to pick their way into open space. The Steelers' passing-attack numbers are still worryingly poor -- they rank bottom five in success rate and explosive play rate -- but veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers deserves field general credit. He gets Pittsburgh out of bad run looks and into good ones by constantly audibling at the line of scrimmage. Because the Steelers can dominate on the ground, they can salt away moderate leads even with a lack of big-play scoring. They have the running game for it, and they have the defense.Seven different Steelers players had at least two pressures Sunday as Pittsburgh ripped through the Browns' offensive line. The Steelers sacked quarterback Deshaun Watson eight times. The Jets also sacked Watson eight times in Week 5 -- he is the only quarterback in the league to have been sacked more than six times in a game this season.New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has introduced a level of unpredictability that was not present in the Steelers' defense for many seasons. The Steelers are rushing a defensive back -- namely, Jalen Ramsey -- on 12% of opponent dropbacks. That's their highest number since 2020, when Mike Hilton was still on the team. They've lined up No. 3 edge rusher Nick Herbig in a wider variety of alignments. He was once primarily a right edge rusher, but now he flip-flops sides and spends several snaps as a walked-up spinner in the A-gaps.With a greater variety of defensive alignments comes more diverse coverages as well. The Steelers are running single-high coverage on 44% of snaps this year after averaging 63.4% in the five seasons previous -- the most of any defense over that span. They ran 28% man free in that five-year period as well -- fourth among all defenses. This season, they're at 9% -- the second lowest, ahead of only the Vikings.This is the modernization for which many Steelers fans screamed over the past few years. Graham isn't reinventing any schematic wheels. He's just running far more modern stuff than Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin's units were, and that refurbishing has eliminated some of the easy completions the Steelers surrendered in previous years.A strong day against the Browns' offense does not make an elite defense. But this season, the Steelers are fifth in defensive EPA per drive and fifth in points per drive allowed. Not only am I confident that this is a top-10 defense, but I really like the Steelers' model of a dominant running game and stiff defense in an AFC playoff field littered with elite quarterbacks and suspect defenses. Pittsburgh will be a tricky postseason opponent as long as the passing game gets semi-functional by season's end because the Steelers can drag typically high-scoring offense into a muddy affair.To do so, they might have to start with the division-rival Bengals, whom they've already beaten once this season. The Steelers have a half-game lead in the division over the 5-2 Bengals and the Week 3 head-to-head win that featured a decisive muffed Cincinnati punt in the fourth quarter. ESPN's FPI gives the Steelers a 24% chance to win the division relative to the Bengals' 73%, thanks in large part to the remaining strength of schedules. The Bengals have the 32nd-toughest schedule remaining, whereas the Steelers are 13th.But don't worry about Week 15 matchups because a lot can change between now and then. The Bengals host the Steelers on Sunday night in Week 10. Pittsburgh will be coming off a bye week, and the Bengals will be travelling back from their Madrid game against the Falcons in Week 9. A post-travel game against a rested opponent is not an easy task.If the Steelers win that game, they'll own the head-to-head tiebreaker and at least a 1-game lead. The Bengals have a terrifying passing attack, but without a balanced running game, they can't salt away leads. Their defense, especially on the ground, has shown cracks during the past several weeks after a red-hot start. The Steelers are well-equipped to beat them. The Browns and Ravens don't have the quarterback play to keep pace.I think this is Pittsburgh's division.I think ... the Browns, Jets and Vikings should all try to trade for Justin Herbert(Disclaimer: I said try to. The Chargers will say no. Do not aggregate this as if the Chargers will say yes. Anti-aggregation shield: activate!)I don't think the Chargers will trade Herbert. In fact, I don't think the Chargers will trade anyone really. ESPN senior insider Adam Schefter reported Monday on 'The Pat McAfee Show' that the Chargers are largely disinterested in dealing players. I think that is shocking, frankly. The Chargers are 0-7 and in need of a coaching change and culture reset. The tentpole players -- tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, receiver Ladd McConkey and linebacker Daiyan Henley -- are not playing up to expectations.The biggest and most disappointing tentpole among them is Herbert, who is clearly broken. His sense of when to extend plays and when to check down -- broken. His sense of which tight windows to try and which to avoid -- broken. His trust in his receivers and his feel in the pocket -- broken. Herbert reminds me of my childhood desktop computer, which would become so unusable if more than three programs were open that nothing but a hard reboot would save it. There was no little tweak -- control-alt-delete, close a window or two or clear some memory. It was best to press the power button and restart.This is most evident in Herbert's interceptions. Even if you doubted Herbert for every snap of his career -- who thought the film-watching cult was wrong for believing in this playoff-choking hypothetical of a quarterback -- you have to admit that he has never looked like this. Herbert is throwing blithely into unmoving defenders with the blind certainty of a QB3 undrafted free agent forced into NFL action. I have never seen, or can I remember, a quarterback start for six seasons ... and then produce plays this perplexingly poor.This moment is the absolute valley of Herbert's value in the league. He has never been playing worse; his status as a good-to-elite starting quarterback in the upcoming seasons has never been in greater jeopardy.Which creates an interesting question. If Herbert were to be traded, what would be the return?I posed this question a couple of weeks ago on X (formerly known as Twitter) -- where I always go when I want a balanced and reasonable survey of opinions. Most rational responders included two first-round picks. Makes sense -- that's what the Lions sent for quarterback Matthew Stafford along with a third-round pick and Jared Goff, an acceptable bridge quarterback for a rebuilding team. Of course, Goff became so much more in Detroit. Stafford was 33 when the Rams acquired him -- Herbert is five years younger. Stafford had two years left on his deal; Herbert has four.I would ask the lifelong Herbert detractors this question, then: Would they feel better about the Vikings this season with Kyler Murray under center or Herbert and two fewer first-round picks? The answer is very obvious to me. Murray is struggling to hit all of the throws Kevin O'Connell expects of him in this offense. We know that Herbert, for as badly as he has played this season, has a much greater capacity than Murray for accessing the middle of the field and hitting receivers in tight windows on crossing patterns.What about the Jets? Would the Lifelong Herbert Detractors (LHD henceforth) prefer to roll the dice on another top-10 pick at quarterback for the Jets ... or trade some of those future picks to the Chargers and commit to Herbert as the franchise quarterback? The mystery box of draft picks can become anything, of course. And they could become a big-bodied, big-armed quarterback with a history of productive NFL play!How about the Browns? The LHD, no matter how fervent, must admit that Herbert would be the best Browns quarterback since ... Bernie Kosar in the '90s? The point here is that, for as far as Herbert's stock has fallen this season, the steepness and suddenness of the decline smells fishy. Either this is an unprecedented collapse of what was, at least, a good starting quarterback in his prime or a blip on the radar of an otherwise solid NFL career. Isn't this the moment to take a chance?It's a thought exercise, of course. If Jim Harbaugh's Chargers traded Herbert, he would tear his garments and gnash his teeth. It will never happen.But even NBA star Luka Doncic got traded. And because Doncic got traded in the dead of night with no preamble in the media, with most of the NBA teams wondering how they didn't get a chance to even call the Mavericks with an offer ... I will never say never. And, if I were the general manager of the Jets, Browns or Vikings (or Eagles, or Panthers, or Giants, or Commanders, or Saints, or Titans, or Broncos, or Seahawks), I'd be calling just to triple-check.I think ... Anthony Campanile is the head coach darling candidate of 2027I have written extensively about the Jaguars in this column. I called Trevor Lawrence the league MVP after Week 1. I prognosticated that their trenches would be their Achilles' heel come playoff time. (The season-ending injury to nose tackle DaVon Hamilton, who was playing great this year, makes that worry even larger). I called them the best team in the AFC after Week 4.Suffice to say, I'm all in. And I think the Jaguars' incredible season should result in the red-hot coaching cycle of defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile.Campanile, similar to most defensive coaches, might not be an obvious head coaching candidacy -- the league tends to hunt for offensive stars, such as young Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski. But Campanile has the right lineage. He coached linebackers in Miami under Brian Flores for two seasons, then was retained in Miami by Mike McDaniel and coached under Vic Fangio in 2023. Campanile left Miami to join Jeff Hafley's staff in Green Bay before snagging the Jaguars' defensive coordinator job -- his first playcalling spot at the NFL level -- in 2025.Every linebacker whom Campanile has coached turned to gold. Devin Lloyd's 2025 explosion in Jacksonville was one of the least probable breakouts I've seen over the past decade of football. Quay Walker and rookie Edgerrin Cooper meshed with Campanile's coaching in Green Bay in 2024. Jerome Baker broke out in Miami in his first season under Flores and Campanile.Good positional coaching is a sign that Campanile is a strong communicator; he knows how to engage players. Now consider how well he has managed the defense as the playcaller in Jacksonville. Since the start of last season, the Jaguars are third in EPA per drive and fourth in points per drive allowed. They're doing this with solid players, but not stars. They don't have a defensive player signed to a top-10 contract for their position. Josh Hines-Allen, the highest-paid Jaguars defender, is 11th by average annual value among edge rushers. The fourth-highest-paid Jaguars defender is not even exclusively a defender: It's Travis Hunter, who is paid $11.66 million after being the No. 2 pick.The best defensive coordinators are not system defensive coordinators; you can't copy and paste the Flores system and deploy it with your personnel the way you might with a Shanahan-style offense. Defensive playcalling requires more week-over-week morphing, as offensive problems constantly change and require new solutions. The best defensive coordinators have thick toolbelts who can find that one thingamajig that will solve the leaky faucet or jammed door.Campanile has got a special blend in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will pressure much like Flores, sending blitzers from every side of the formation while dropping into split-field zone coverages that allow them to drive on routes quickly. They also play a lot of quarter-quarter-half and cloud coverages in the Fangio style to get numbers over both sides of the formation and free up weakside safeties to make plays on the ball. To solve the issue of cloud coverages leading to light boxes, they maximize the value of tweener players such as defensive tackle Arik Armstead and edge rusher Travon Walker by constantly stunting their front. The way they use Walker reminds me, at times, of how Mike Macdonald uses DeMarcus Lawrence in Seattle.Tools, tools, tools. The Jaguars play light boxes at the seventh-highest rate in football, yet have the best run defense by success rate. Without Hamilton, now lost for the season, maintaining those numbers becomes more challenging. Will we see more run blitzes? That's how Flores might solve the issue. More five-man fronts? That's how Fangio would solve it. A secret third concept?There's a lot more to good head coaching than concocting an effective schematic stew on defense. But were the Ben Solak Coaching Search Consultancy Firm off the ground (still looking for investors), I'd have Campanile atop my list for 2027 because he so clearly gets the football side of things. He puts his players in winning spots. He's modern and clever and humble. If he keeps this Jaguars defense afloat through injuries (safety Eric Murray is also out for the year), he'll have officially checked every box for an elite coach. And some smart team will reap the benefits from 2027 and beyond.I think ... the Bears are exactly as good as we hoped Jeffery Simmons would make them Quickly find everyone who worried that trading two first-round picks for Simmons was a franchise-risking overpay and laugh at them.Don't actually do that. It's a warranted concern, and one game does not finish the book on a winning trade. The Bears traded for Simmons not to win a Week 8 matchup against the Seahawks on "Monday Night Football," but for a deep postseason run and a Lombardi Trophy.But after our levelheaded evaluations of long-term risk and rookie contract value and all other necessary considerations ... it's important to take a moment and relish his performance.The Bears needed a good player on defense and Simmons fits the bill. With four minutes left in the fourth quarter -- when the Bears went up 34-17 -- Simmons had played 37 of their 45 defensive snaps. The Seahawks' offense had 87 yards on those 37 plays (2.4 yards per play) and 106 yards on the eight plays he was off the field (13.3 yards per play). All five of the Bears' tackles for loss occurred with Simmons on the field, as did Sam Darnold's interception. They allowed two explosive plays with him on the field ... and three without.Simmons' debut coincided with Montez Sweat's return from suspension, and their combination of serious pocket-pushing (and Austin Booker, who batted a field goal attempt and tipped an interception) really unsettled Darnold in this game, especially early. Simmons consistently dents the pocket and draws extra hands. Every defensive player's job on the field is easier because of his gravity. That's what it is to be a blue-chip player -- a truly elite player. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Simmons has a legit argument for Defensive Player of the Year.With Simmons raising the floor of the Bears' defense, the ceiling of the Bears' offense becomes even more apparent. Chicago's offense never stops impressing me. Not just quarterback Caleb Williams. Not just coach Ben Johnson. But the entire picture of it. The Bears can win games with methodical, clock-chewing drives. They had two touchdown drives of more than six minutes against the Seahawks in this game, a feat no offense had against Seattle last season. D'Andre Swift rushed for three touchdowns. Williams was dominant at the line of scrimmage, constantly flipping plays and killing calls and using the entire play clock to outfox a Seahawks defense that is rarely outfoxed. The Bears took two delay of game penalties, but over the course of the game, Williams' maturation as a pre-snap processor was never more apparent.Johnson helped, as he always does. The Bears were constantly going no-huddle once they got into the low red zone to trap the Seahawks in nickel defense and make it easier to run the football. Again, before the garbage-time touchdown, the Bears were in no-huddle on four of their five snaps inside the 10-yard line and got two touchdowns out of two trips for their trouble. The Seahawks had seen no-huddle on three of 61 goal-to-go snaps previously.Chicago beat the defending champs by 17 points. The Bears were an overtime loss to the Rams from the NFC Championship Game last year. The Bears are 4-1 with Williams on the field this season, and their lone loss was a weather game against Brian Flores and the 6-1 Vikings. Chicago will get a second swing at them in Week 18 in what could be a division-deciding game. The Bears will get the Packers in Week 16 (lost to them with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum at QB) and the Lions in Week 17. The Bears will play the class of the AFC as well -- at Buffalo in Week 15, vs. Jacksonville in Week 13.The Bears passed their first litmus test in the Jeffery Simmons era with flying colors. The NFC is far too dense to call any one team the leader in the clubhouse, but if I could pick one team, it would be this Bears team.I might think ... the following trades happen A transparent disclaimer: Last year, I called the 49ers-Patriots trade for Keion White almost perfectly. Missed the compensation by a seventh-round pick. That was a dopamine rush. It was the football blogger equivalent of a half-court buzzer-beater to beat the rival school from over the hill. I was walking on clouds all week. (Nobody else cared.)As such, I am blatantly chasing that feeling and trying to nail another bottom-of-the-roster trade between now and the trade deadline. This segment is less for you and more for the screenshot -- enjoy!Eagles trade TE Johnny Mundt and a 2027 seventh-round pick to the Vikings for a 2027 sixth-round pickThe Vikings might be a headliner for Jonathan Taylor-trade hype, but my sense is that they're really looking for a strong blocking tight end after the season-ending injury to Josh Oliver in Week 3. Mundt was in Minnesota from 2022 to 2024 with coach Kevin O'Connell and is currently losing his TE2 job in Philadelphia, as rookie Eli Stowers and veteran Grant Calcaterra return from injured reserve. Mundt played 13 snaps in the Eagles' loss to the Commanders on Sunday night, his season low. He'll give the Vikings more reliable point-of-attack blocking for a nominal price.Panthers trade tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders to the Bears for a 2027 sixth-round pickSanders has been a healthy scratch in Carolina for much of the season despite his draft status as a 2024 second-round selection. He is buried on the depth chart behind Tommy Tremble, Darren Waller and the direly underrated Mitchell Evans, but still has some YAC skills. The Bears lost Cole Kmet for the season because of a major knee injury, and though Sanders shares none of Kmet's skill set, he gives them another option at TE3 behind Colston Loveland and rookie third-round pick Sam Roush.Chargers trade cornerback Donte Jackson to the Ravens for a 2027 seventh-round pickJackson is a veteran corner on an 0-7 Chargers team with plenty of youth at the position (Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still). He's in the last year of his contract, and he has taken only 113 snaps this season as he has been out because of a hamstring injury. I understand the Chargers reportedly don't intend to trade many players, but c'mon! This one is obvious, right?The Ravens have been messing with cornerback rotations all season, trying to find their three best starters. Veteran Marlon Humphrey played only 56% of the snaps as Chidobe Awuzie rotated in off the bench. Jackson would give head coach Jesse Minter (former Chargers coordinator) a familiar starter who could stabilize that position as the Ravens hold on to a sliver of playoff hope with quarterback Lamar Jackson on injured reserve (thumb).Vikings trade wide receiver Jauan Jennings and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Chiefs for a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 fourth-round pickI've always thought Jennings would make a good Chief. They've needed better blocking receivers, and Jennings is as physical a blocking receiver as they come. He'd fill the power slot role to push Rashee Rice into more outside snaps, but he'd also have the opportunity for a high volume of receiving usage -- something he's evidently interested in, given his frustrations with San Francisco's and Minnesota's offenses in recent years. The Vikings reportedly talked about sending Jennings back to San Francisco, but Jennings nixed the deal because he didn't want to go back. In Kansas City, he would join a contender in need of any and all receiver assistance.Colts trade wide receiver Josh Downs and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Rams for a 2028 third-round pickMy biggest hang-up in trading Downs to anyone is that he has to be protected from blocking responsibilities. But the Rams run so much 13 personnel that Downs can easily line up in isolation to the outside and stay out of the run concept. He gives them a short-area winner for the goal-line and third-down packages at which wideout Davante Adams excelled -- and, with Matthew Stafford struggling on longer throws and wanting to check down more often, quick winners are needed. We typically think of Sean McVay as fielding only big-blocking slots, but in this newfangled McVay attack, Downs actually works. If the Rams are still all-in on this version of their team, Downs makes sense as a short-term relief valve and potential long-term signee to pair with Puka Nacua for the Ty Simpson era.
