EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIt's so hard to be perfect -- which is why most College Football Playoff teams aren't.Last year, 10 of the 12 teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee's top 12 heading into conference championship weekend had a loss on their rsum, and four had two. The only undefeated teams remaining by early December were No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana -- until the Hoosiers' Big Ten championship game win added the Buckeyes to the list.It's not normal to go undefeated anymore, especially when the Power 4 conferences are all playing nine league games. Over the 12-year history of the CFP, 34 teams have qualified with a loss, 10 have had two losses (all in the 12-team format), and two playoff teams have had three losses -- Clemson in 2024 and Alabama in 2025.Selection Day will again feature playoff teams with one or two losses, so it's up to Florida to determine how damaging Saturday's defeat to Missouri really was. For now, it's not an elimination game -- the head-to-head result against Ole Miss broke that fall -- but it could come back to haunt them if the Gators don't find a way to beat Texas or Georgia.Consider the Gators on the bubble.They're in good company, as other one-loss teams such as Ole Miss, Oregon, USC, Utah, Texas Tech and Tennessee are all dancing on the line between contention and needing some help.Below you'll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories. The dreaded category of "Out" has returned, wishing teams with at least three losses better luck next year. In some cases, it's simply still "Too early to tell," so we've also aptly named a category that includes teams that can still technically win its Power 4 conference. You'll also find the true contenders in the category of "In" for teams in this week's projection or "Wrong side of the bubble" for those right on the cusp.This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds -- or busts -- its rsum.Jump to a conference:ACC | Big 12 | Big TenSEC | Independent | Group of 6BracketACCSpotlight: Miami. The Hurricanes played for the national title and could be even better this year. They rank No. 2 in the country in points per game (49.6), No. 1 in opponents' points per game (9.8) and No. 1 in points margin (199). And for as much grief as they've gotten about their schedule, the Canes rank No. 11 in the country in opponents' winning percentage (75%). Miami is No. 4 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, nobody in the country has a better chance to make the playoff (93.2%). It's not a question of IF Miami will make it, but where the Canes will be seeded. It's not impossible for Miami and Notre Dame to finish in the top four together and earn a first-round bye, but it depends on how the other contenders fare.The enigma: Pitt. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Pitt has the second-best chance in the ACC (27.9%) to reach the CFP behind Miami. The Panthers are also No. 9 in the country in ESPN's Strength of Record metric. But the swell of positive momentum from Friday night's thrilling win against Virginia Tech was tempered by the devastating news that starting quarterback Mason Heintschel will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. The selection committee does consider injuries to key players in its deliberations, but it's also not a hall pass to lose games without him. If Pitt is going to reach the playoff, it probably has to win the ACC, and will turn to backup Holden Geriner to try to do it.If the playoff were todayWould be in: MiamiWrong side of the bubble: Pitt, DukeToo early to tell: Clemson, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia TechOut: Boston College, Cal, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Louisville, StanfordBig 12Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars eked out a 17-10 win at TCU in lousy weather for their second straight road win, but are still looking to make a statement against a ranked opponent. That will come Oct. 17 at home against Notre Dame in a game that will have major CFP implications. The Nov. 7 game at Utah, though, might be even bigger because it will determine the Big 12's top playoff contender. The Big 12 champ is guaranteed a spot in the playoff, and BYU and Utah look like the league's two best teams through five weeks.The enigma: Texas Tech. At No. 7, the Red Raiders have the highest Strength of Record in the Big 12, but they haven't looked as impressive on film. Utah is No. 1 and BYU is No. 2 in the conference in total efficiency, while Utah is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and Texas Tech is No. 11. Last year's appearance in the CFP seems to be carrying the Red Raiders in the AP poll, but that's not how the selection committee works. The Red Raiders have eight turnovers, more than BYU and Utah combined, and they've led to 17 points. The computers love Texas Tech, though, giving the Red Raiders the best chance of any Big 12 team to reach the playoff (58.3%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Texas Tech also has the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (63.9%), according to ESPN Analytics.If the playoff were todayWould be in: BYUWrong side of the bubble: Utah, Texas TechToo early to tell: Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona, Houston, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Kansas, Arizona State, UCF, Iowa State, Oklahoma StateOut: Colorado, TCUBig TenSpotlight: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are No. 5 in the country in total efficiency, ranking in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. Heisman hopeful receiver Jeremiah Smith seems to break another record every time he steps on the field, and Saturday's convincing win at Iowa gave the Buckeyes a much-needed rsum boost to accompany the strong game film. Ohio State had one bad quarter on the road at Texas, and the committee is unlikely to penalize the Buckeyes much for a one-point loss to what should be their No. 1 team. Ohio State's true place in the pecking order will be revealed later this month with back-to-back road trips to Indiana and USC. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (65.5%) and win it (44.6%).The enigma: Oregon. The Ducks had a bye week, which they desperately needed after starting quarterback Dante Moore suffered a concussion in the win at USC. The loss to Oklahoma State was significant, but in retrospect it might not turn out to be as bad as it seemed at the time. Both Oklahoma State and Tulsa, the team the Cowboys surprisingly lost to, are above .500. Oklahoma State is 3-1 and has a case to be ranked in the Top 25. The committee does go so deep as to consider opponents' opponents. Saturday's game against undefeated UCLA is suddenly more interesting, but the Nov. 7 game at Ohio State will be the best chance during the regular season to move off the bubble and into the bracket.If the playoff were todayWould be in: Ohio State, IndianaWrong side of the bubble: OregonToo early to tell: USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, UCLA, Northwestern, Penn State, Washington, IowaOut: Rutgers, Michigan State, Maryland, Illinois, PurdueSECSpotlight: Alabama. The Tide have answered the biggest preseason questions -- quarterback and running game -- in resounding fashion. Alabama has looked like one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking No. 1 in total efficiency, according to ESPN Analytics. It has the rsum to match, ranking No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric. It sets up for an epic showdown Saturday against Georgia to determine who the biggest challenger to Texas will be in the SEC. Texas is No. 1 because its wins against Ohio State and at Tennessee are the best in the country, but the Longhorns have looked vulnerable offensively. Alabama and Georgia don't play Texas during the regular season, though, so the winner of Saturday's game will be the most likely opponent in the SEC championship game.The enigma: Missouri. Saturday's win against the Gators was monumental for the program, but is Mizzou good enough to sustain the momentum against the fifth-most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS? And which version of Missouri will the selection committee see? The one that hammered Florida 45-17? Or the one that lost at Mississippi State 31-24? Missouri still travels to Ole Miss and Georgia and will host Texas on Nov. 7. ESPN's FPI gives Mizzou less than a 50% chance to win each of those games.If the playoff were todayWould be in: Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, LSUWrong side of the bubble: TennesseeToo early to tell: Auburn, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi StateOut: Arkansas, South CarolinaIndependentWould be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and Saturday's win at North Carolina in miserable weather gave them their second straight road victory. The season-opening win against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field has grown in value, as the Badgers have won four straight games since then and made a case to be ranked. Notre Dame has also been one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking No. 2 in total efficiency. The Irish have everything they need to compete for the national title, including a guaranteed spot in the playoff if they finish in the committee's top 12 on Selection Day. The question is where they will be seeded, and games against BYU and Miami will go a long way in answering that.Group of 6Spotlight: Boise State. The Broncos still have the best chance of any Group of 6 contender (35.2%) to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The narrow season-opening loss to Oregon can still work in Boise State's favor if the Ducks continue to regroup from the loss to Oklahoma State and assert themselves more in the playoff conversation. A close road loss to a playoff contender will make more of a statement to the selection committee than winning against some of the weakest teams in the country. ESPN's FPI gives Boise State more than a 50% chance to win in each of its remaining games.Enigma: James Madison. JMU has the second-best chance (28%) to represent the Group of 6 in the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The difference between JMU's current strength of schedule (No. 132) and Boise State's (No. 49) is glaring, though. But JMU is still undefeated, and ESPN's FPI projects it to run the table. If Boise State and JMU both run the table, will the committee lean toward the tougher schedule with one loss? Or the undefeated team with the easier path? How both teams win will matter.If the playoff were todayWould be in: Boise StateWrong side of the bubble: JMU, New Mexico, North Dakota StateBracketBased on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:First-round byesNo. 1 Texas (SEC champ)No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)No. 3 GeorgiaNo. 4 Miami (ACC champ)First-round gamesOn campus, Dec. 18 and 19No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 AlabamaNo. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre DameNo. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 IndianaNo. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)Quarterfinal gamesVrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 MiamiNo. 11 LSU/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 GeorgiaNo. 10 Ole Miss/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio StateNo. 9 Florida/No. 8 BYU winner vs. No. 1 Texas
