EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWeek 1 of the NFL season is just around the corner, so for those looking to get futures bets on player props in before odds potentially make dramatic shifts, it's time to really look at those sheets.Our analysts did just that, scouring the odds trying to find numbers that stood out. Here are their favorite player totals to bet heading into the 2026 season.Note: Odds by DraftKings and are subject to change.Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Football. Play the No. 1 Fantasy game for free! Caleb Williams 4,000+ passing yards (+175)Matt Bowen: Williams had 3,942 passing yards in 2025, his first season under head coach Ben Johnson, and we should see more growth from the quarterback in Year 2 in Johnson's system. With Johnson's playcalling and creative usage of the tight end position, Williams can hit the schemed throws, and his playmaking talent is a separator. Let's bet on Williams to become the first 4,000-yard passer in Chicago Bears history. Dak Prescott passing yards OVER 3,999.5 (-110)Eric Moody: Prescott has cleared this line in each of the past four seasons in which he has played at least 16 games. He's also in a Dallas Cowboys offense that ranked in the top five last season in both pass attempts and passing yards. Prescott also has the benefit of throwing to one of the top wide receiver duos in the league in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Add one of the easiest schedules for a quarterback, and Prescott is well positioned to clear this line. Justin Herbert passing yards OVER 3,650.5 (-115)Liz Loza: Before OT Joe Alt's season-ending injury suffered in Week 9, Herbert was on track to surpass 4,500 passing yards. Herbert has exceeded 3,700 yards in five of his six seasons, the lone exception coming in 2023, when a hand injury limited him to 13 games. With a fully healthy offensive line and Mike McDaniel directing the offense, he is highly likely to cruise past 3,800 passing yards in 2026. Jaxson Dart passing yards UNDER 3,150.5 (-115)Pamela Maldonado: Dart's rushing ability is the biggest reason to buy this under. He ran for 487 yards and had nine rushing touchdowns as a rookie. Those designed runs reduce the number of dropbacks available to build passing volume. John Harbaugh also wants this offense to be physical and balanced, which explains the Giants' investment in the offensive line and backfield. The schedule may not provide many easy explosive passes, either. Dart can improve as a quarterback and still finish under this number, especially if Malik Nabers misses time or isn't 100%. Baker Mayfield passing TDs UNDER 25.5 (-130)Maldonado: This is less about the collapse of the 2025 season and more about replacing Mike Evans, arguably the greatest receiver in franchise history. Even if Emeka Egbuka develops into a true WR1, the other parts around Mayfield make this a tall order. Tampa faces a tougher schedule of passing defenses but should have a healthier rushing attack, potentially shifting the offensive philosophy. Twenty-six touchdowns is a fairly aggressive expectation in a Zac Robinson offense that could become more efficient rather than simply more pass-heavy. Omarion Hampton rushing yards OVER 949.5 (-110)Bowen: In nine games played as a rookie, Hampton rushed for 545 yards -- behind a beat-up Los Angeles Chargers offensive line. However, with that L.A. front now healthy (and upgraded on the interior), and with Mike McDaniel calling the plays, Hampton is primed to hit the over this season. This offense is set up to run the ball. Garrett Wilson receiving yards OVER 999.5 (-110)Moody: Wilson has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three healthy seasons and has ranked no lower than eighth among wide receivers in targets in those three years, despite dealing with suboptimal quarterback play. Geno Smith is the best quarterback Wilson has played with, and Wilson should once again see a ton of targets. That's important for a Jets offense looking to rebound after finishing last in passing yards per game in 2025. Travis Kelce receiving yards OVER 674.5 (-110)Loza: Kelce's best playing days are undoubtedly in the rearview. Still, this line is too low. Kelce has cleared 820 receiving yards in 12 straight seasons. The addition of Kenneth Walker III figures to open up the middle of the field and allow No. 87 to operate with fewer double-teams. The 36-year-old remains a central fixture in the Chiefs' offense and a top target for Patrick Mahomes. Given his history as one of the NFL's most durable players, Kelce should clear 700 receiving yards, assuming he suits up for at least 15 games. Colston Loveland receptions OVER 69.5 (-130)Joe Fortenbaugh: If there was one Bears player to target in the various props markets, it would be their second-year tight end. After recording just 4.1 targets per game over his first 14 games as a rookie, Loveland surged to 12.0 targets per game over his last four, including the playoffs. He's in line for a big year, especially when you consider the departure of wide receiver DJ Moore, who finished second on the team last season in targets with 85. Those have to be redistributed elsewhere, and Loveland is one of the best options to take advantage of the surplus. Myles Garrett sacks UNDER 15.75 (-105)Seth Walder: It's easy to understand why the line is this high. Garrett recorded 23.0 sacks last season with the Browns; imagine what he can do on the Rams, who will be playing from the lead. But 15.75 sacks is an incredibly high line. Consider that in Garrett's two previous seasons, including one in which he won Defensive Player of the Year, he recorded only 14.0 sacks in each. Three factors that mitigate Garrett's sack forecast in my model: his age (30), the fact that the Rams blitzed only 19% of the time last year (second-lowest rate) and that the schedule of quarterbacks Los Angeles faces take sacks at a lower-than-average rate. With a line as high as 15.75, there are plenty of ways Garrett can go under. Cedric Gray most regular-season tackles + assists (12-1)Walder: Just like many other statistics, tackle totals are a combination of talent and opportunity. Gray has both. Gray led all linebackers last season in run stop win rate (43.8%) and recorded tackles against run plays 25.8% of the time, third most among linebackers. That's the talent portion. But the team he plays on is also key. That the Tennessee Titans are expected to be a subpar team actually helps Gray in this case. If the Titans find themselves behind in many games, that means their opponents will run the ball over and over and over. That creates tackling opportunities. Given what he has shown, Gray can convert those opportunities into tackles. He's a prime candidate to lead this stat category.
