EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe FIFA World Cup is the most watched sporting event on the planet, its strongest narrative creation device and a bit of a random outcome generator. The fate of coaches, the legacy of players and the morale of a nation are all decided by who was healthy at the right time and, of course, did the ball go in the net?In the 2026 World Cup, the United States men's national team put together three or four excellent and encouraging performances, then finished its run with the most discouraging face-plant imaginable against Belgium. The good part of that run created the best USMNT vibes in ages and roped in tens of millions of television viewers. The terrible ending created the "same old U.S." snark and all the old "Why isn't the U.S. better at soccer?" debates.This all raises the question: Are our narratives correct regarding the U.S.?The modern World Cup history of this team is pretty easy to summarize: After a 40-year absence from the tournament, the U.S. was completely overwhelmed in 1990, overachieved in 1994, stunk in 1998, surged to an all-time high in 2002, disappointed in 2006 and did fine but wasn't exceptional in 2010, 2014, 2022 and 2026 (with an all-time, devastating disappointment in the 2018 qualification sandwiched in there, as well). It can easily feel as though there has been a lack of progress and development over the past decade or so despite an increase in the number of players with high-profile gigs in Europe.But do the stats back all of this up? In terms of chance creation and overall quality, is the story of the U.S. what we say it is?Stats Perform has collected event data and advanced stats for each World Cup going back to 1966. What do expected goals (xG) and the nerd stats say about the USMNT's modern World Cup performances?1990 World CupWe won't need to spend too much time on this one. Thanks to Paul Caligiuri's miraculous parabola goal against Trinidad & Tobago, the U.S. qualified for the 1990 World Cup, its first in 40 years. A young team of mostly semi-pros was completely overwhelmed at Italia '90, and if anything, the combined 8-2 scoreline might have been generous.June 10, 1990: Czechoslovakia 5, USA 1Total xG: Czechoslovakia 6.13, USA 0.84Typically, a five-goal performance results from severe overachieving in the finishing department, but Czechoslovakia should have scored more. Czechoslovakia led 2-0 at halftime, but after Eric Wynalda's 52nd-minute red card, the naive and wide-open Americans allowed 22 shots worth 4.2 xG in the second half. Somehow, only three of those shots went in.June 14, 1990: Italy 1, USA 0Total xG: Italy 2.04, USA 0.77Against an Italy team that eventually reached the semifinals, the Americans played much better and forced a few decent saves from Italy's Walter Zenga. But after Italy went up in the 12th minute, this one was out of reach.June 19, 1990: Austria 2, USA 1Total xG: Austria 2.18, USA 1.22This one seems more respectable until you realize that Austria played 56 minutes down a man. Austria still comfortably generated more chances and led 2-0 before Bruce Murray's goal for the U.S. in the 83rd minute.1994 World CupFor many of us, this is where the story of U.S. soccer began: America hosted the biggest event in the world, and with a scrappy, young squad, a majority of which was employed by the federation, the team held its own in a tough group, gave Brazil fits in the knockout rounds and established itself as a soccer nation with potential.The stats, on the other hand, suggest this could have gone much worse for the Americans.(Note: Because FIFA rankings began in 1992, I'll start including each opponent's ranking with the scores below, because it adds some helpful context.)June 18, 1994: USA 1, No. 12 Switzerland 1Total xG: Switzerland 0.97, USA 0.78In a stuffy Pontiac Silverdome, the Americans earned a pretty fair draw against an underrated Swiss team. Switzerland doubled them up in shots, but none were of particularly high value; Wynalda scored on a beautiful free kick late in the first half and after an even second half, the U.S. had earned a solid point.June 23, 1994: USA 2, No. 17 Colombia 1Total xG: Colombia 1.98, USA 0.90This was a particularly lucky one. The U.S. scored on a memorable Andres Escobar own goal, then went up 2-0 in the second half on a lovely maneuver from Earnie Stewart.At this point, the match had been pretty even -- the Americans had attempted nine shots (0.71 xG) to Colombia's eight (0.92) -- but the U.S. bunkered in from there, and the frustrated Colombians, the pre-tournament Group A favorites, fired long-range shot after long-range shot at goalkeeper Tony Meola. Only one went in, and the Americans stole three points.June 26, 1994: No. 7 Romania 1, USA 0Total xG: USA 0.83, Romania 0.59A bit of an unlucky draw for the Americans, which was only fair after their luck in the previous match. The U.S. attempted the first three shots of the match, but Romania scored on its first shot attempt, on a tight angle, via Dan Petrescu. Romania was happy to bunker in and give the inexperienced Americans more of the ball (and no clear looks at goal), and despite Stewart earning a solid attempt in the final 10 minutes, the U.S. couldn't score.Romania won the group with six points, and the U.S. advanced to the knockout rounds with four points. You can make a solid case that two points would have been a more appropriate total (ties with Switzerland and Romania and a loss to Colombia).July 4, 1994: No. 3 Brazil 1, USA 0Total xG: Brazil 3.50, USA 0.13I was 15 when this match took place, and I remember thinking it was amazing that the U.S. was hanging with mighty Brazil. That really was not the case.At the time of Leonardo's red card in the 43rd minute, Brazil had outshot the U.S. by a 10-3 margin (xG: Brazil 1.43, USA 0.11) and had created three high-value chances. Even down a player, Brazil allowed the U.S. only one shot attempt, a late, long-range effort from Michael Sorber that was blocked by Cafu. Brazil finally got its goal from Bebeto in the 74th minute, but this one was as one-sided as a Brazil vs. USA match in 1994 was supposed to be.In all, the U.S. was outscored by just a 4-3 margin in this tournament -- a lovely showing. But opponents generated 7.0 xG to the Americans' 2.6. They were very fortunate to have reached the knockout rounds (and to have lost by only one when they got there). How might the trajectory of support in this country have shifted without this team of overachievers overachieving?1998 World CupYour luck always evens out. At France 1998, the Americans got drawn into a group of death -- Germany and Yugoslavia were in the top eight of the FIFA rankings -- and exited quickly amid internal drama. But though the U.S. certainly didn't play well enough to advance, it could have easily earned a couple of draws.June 15, 1998: No. 2 Germany 2, USA 0Total xG: Germany 1.58, USA 0.67The first half here was one-sided, with Germany dominating the ball, allowing only two low-quality shot attempts and scoring in the ninth minute. But the U.S. played itself into the match in the second half, attempting eight shots and fighting to a draw in the xG department (0.61 to 0.61).Germany goalkeeper Andreas Kopke saved a high-value attempt from Frankie Hejduk and a rebound attempt from Claudio Reyna in the 53rd minute, and Jurgen Klinsmann put the match away with a goal in the 65th. But after a slow start, this was a respectable showing for the U.S. With a good effort against Iran, the weakest opponent in the group, the Americans could head into the final match against Yugoslavia with hope of advancing.June 21, 1998: No. 42 Iran 2, USA 1Total xG: Iran 1.90, USA 1.67That good effort didn't happen, though, in this wide-open match; a draw would have been a perfectly fair result. Over the first 39 minutes, the U.S. attempted nine shots to Iran's six and forced several saves from Ahmad-Reza Abedzadeh. But Hamid-Reza Estili's goal in the 40th minute changed the tenor of the game. Iran gave the U.S. all of the ball, and though the Americans generated some solid opportunities, they also allowed quite a bit on the counter. Mehdi Mahdavikia put Iran up 2-0 in the 84th minute, and despite a response goal from Brian McBride, the U.S. lost and were eliminated.June 25, 1998: No. 8 Yugoslavia 1, USA 0Total xG: Yugoslavia 1.02, USA 0.95To the team's credit, the U.S. put in a high-effort performance despite already being knocked out, but it also trailed for 86 minutes thanks to Slobodan Komljenovic's early goal on Yugoslavia's first shot attempt. Joe-Max Moore had a decent opportunity to tie the score in the 33rd minute but missed, and Yugoslavia earned the win.For the tournament, the U.S. was outscored 5-1, but opponents generated 4.5 xG to the Americans' semi-respectable 3.3. The ball just wouldn't go in the net, and it drastically impacted how we look back at this tournament.2002 World CupFortune swung back in favor of a fun American squad in 2002. At least, right up until it didn't. Despite a brilliant opening match, xG suggests that the U.S. was lucky to reach the quarterfinals ... and unlucky not to reach the semis.June 5, 2002: USA 3, No. 5 Portugal 2Total xG: USA 1.73, Portugal 1.45This was one of America's greatest World Cup performances.Against a Portugal team that featured Real Madrid's Luis Figo and AC Milan's Rui Costa, among many others, the U.S. jumped ahead thanks to John O'Brien's rebound goal in the fourth minute, then got a lucky break when a Landon Donovan cross took a wicked deflection off defender Jorge Costa and sneaked past Vitor Baia. In the 36th minute, McBride headed in a long cross from Tony Sanneh, and the Americans were shockingly up 3-0, having created almost all of the game's great opportunities.From there, Portugal had most of the possession and all of the initiative. But after making it 3-2 on a Jeff Agoos own goal in the 71st minute, Portugal couldn't pull off another shot attempt, and the U.S. sealed a brilliant win.June 10, 2002: USA 1, No. 40 South Korea 1Total xG: South Korea 3.10, USA 0.38A Brad Friedel masterpiece.(Source: TruMedia)The Blackburn goalkeeper saved nine of 10 shots on goal, including a penalty in the 40th minute, and combined with a moment of brilliance from Clint Mathis, that was somehow enough to earn a draw in this one-sided match against the hosts in Daegu.June 14, 2002: No. 38 Poland 3, USA 1Total xG: Poland 3.59, USA 1.88The U.S. squad was loaded with veterans -- 15 of 23 players were 28 or older -- but they played like a young and inconsistent team. After the brilliance against Portugal, the U.S. got peppered for two straight matches.Winless Poland led 2-0 after five minutes and cruised. Luckily, the hosts proved incredibly hospitable, upsetting Portugal to allow the U.S. to earn second place in the group.June 17, 2002: USA 2, No. 7 Mexico 0Total xG: USA 1.98, Mexico 1.09The Americans might have needed luck to advance, but once they were in the knockout rounds, the U.S. began to look excellent again.Granted, the U.S. enjoyed luck in a different form here -- officials missed a pretty obvious handball in the box from John O'Brien -- but there was no question who generated more of the good scoring opportunities. McBride scored on the USMNT's first shot of the match (it's amazing how many matches are defined by this one simple trick), and after Mexico established some control late in the first half, the U.S. adjusted and sealed the win with an Eddie Lewis-to-Donovan counterattacking goal in the 65th minute.June 21, 2002: No. 11 Germany 1, USA 0Total xG: USA 2.00, Germany 1.66A tournament of good fortune and a couple of excellent performances ended with a what-if. Through 38 minutes, the U.S. had been slightly better than Germany, generating 0.74 xG to the heavyweights' 0.52. But Oliver Kahn stopped a couple of high-value Donovan shots, and Michael Ballack put Germany up late in the first half. The lead barely held up. On a corner kick in the 50th minute, Kahn got a hand on a Gregg Berhalter effort ... and so did defender Torsten Frings on the goal line. Somehow, no handball was called -- turnabout for O'Brien in the previous round, I guess -- and the U.S. was held scoreless despite several solid chances. The incredible run ended with three great performances and a couple of duds.2006 World CupOnce again, the U.S. drew a group of death in 2006 -- in part because the U.S. was in it! Its FIFA ranking had peaked at fourth in April 2006, and expectations were pretty high despite sharing a group with the Czech Republic and eventual finalist Italy. Instead, a stumble occurred that was even worse statistically than what had happened in 1998.June 12, 2006: No. 2 Czech Republic 3, USA 0Total xG: Czech Republic 1.76, USA 0.42The 3-0 scoreline was a bit unfortunate, but Jan Koller and Tomas Rosicky scored on high-quality opportunities in the first half, and the Czechs were happy to give the U.S. all of the ball in the second half, knowing no harm would come of it. The Americans attempted 10 shots, and none were worth more than 0.07 xG.This wasn't as bad as the 1990 match against the Czechs, but it was terribly disappointing.June 17, 2006: USA 1, No. 13 Italy 1Total xG: Italy 1.35, USA 1.01A funky match. An assertive U.S. forced a couple of early saves from Gianluigi Buffon, and both teams scored on free kicks within a five-minute span. But Daniele De Rossi received a red card for an elbow to McBride's face, then the U.S. suffered a pair of red cards in each half. Italy created some good chances, but Carlos Bocanegra missed a golden opportunity for a go-ahead goal in the 71st minute, and a DaMarcus Beasley goal was disallowed. This match could have gone either way, but the U.S. earned an unexpected point.June 22, 2006: No. 48 Ghana 2, USA 1Total xG: Ghana 2.12, USA 1.33Thanks to Ghana's upset of the Czechs, the U.S. still had hope heading into this match in Nuremberg, Germany. But Ghana dominated the early going and went ahead thanks to a Draman Haminu goal in the 22nd minute. That woke up the U.S. a bit, and Clint Dempsey evened the match with his first World Cup goal late in the first half. But Stephen Appiah scored minutes later, and Ghana held the Americans at bay in the second half. The U.S. went home after just one solid performance in three matches.2010 World CupWatching this World Cup in real-time, it felt as if the Americans were supremely lucky to draw against England and then supremely unlucky in basically every match that followed. As it turns out, xG agreed. No result in this tournament really made sense.June 12, 2010: USA 1, No. 6 England 1Total xG: England 1.93, USA 0.74England entered the tournament as the No. 3 betting favorite after eventual champion Spain and Brazil. When Steven Gerrard scored in the fourth minute, it looked as if this one would be pretty lopsided. But the U.S. played well for the rest of the first half, and England goalkeeper Robert Green's 40th-minute howler on a long-distance Dempsey effort evened the score. The second half was one-sided (xG: England 1.30, USA 0.25), but Tim Howard made several saves, as he was wont to do, and the U.S. stole a vital point.June 18, 2010: USA 2, No. 25 Slovenia 2Total xG: USA 1.12, Slovenia 0.67After a dreadful first-half performance in which the Americans fell behind 2-0, the U.S. charged back with goals from Donovan (48th minute) and Michael Bradley (82nd), and it sure seemed to have scored the winner before Maurice Edu's goal was disallowed for unexplained reasons. That four goals were scored from shots worth 1.8 xG was certainly unique, and game state certainly played a role with the U.S. trailing for much of the game, but the U.S. created the better chances and could claim to have deserved the three points. The draw meant the U.S. faced a must-win against Algeria.June 23, 2010: USA 1, No. 30 Algeria 0Total xG: USA 3.61, Algeria 1.05Five days after the U.S. and Slovenia finished chances at a particularly high level, the U.S. and Algeria did the opposite. They combined for 40 shot attempts and 4.66 xG, but Algeria's Rafik Djebbour hit the post in the sixth minute, Dempsey hit the post and missed a rebound in the 57th, Algeria's Rais M'Bolhi made seven huge saves and neither team scored until second-half stoppage time.It was a maddening 90 minutes, though it set up the most famous goal in USMNT history. I guess that's a fair trade.June 26, 2010: No. 32 Ghana 2, USA 1Total xG: USA 2.40, Ghana 1.14The Algeria match was frustrating, but provided a huge payoff. The round-of-16 match against Ghana did not. Ghana's Kevin Boateng scored from long range in the fifth minute, and Richard Kingson made six saves. Donovan evened the score with a second-half penalty, but Asamoah Gyan gave Ghana the lead in extra time, and Ghana defenders blocked four late shots. The U.S. couldn't find a way through, and even with the lucky goal against England, the Americans finished the tournament having scored only five goals from shots worth 7.9 xG; Dempsey and Jozy Altidore combined for one goal from shots worth 3.6.2014 World CupFor the third time in five World Cups, the U.S. landed in a group of death, with two opponents in the top five of the FIFA rankings. This time, albeit with some good fortune.June 16, 2014: USA 2, No. 37 Ghana 1Total xG: Ghana 1.38, USA 0.98This match highlights the power of creating a few big chances over a lot of small chances.(Source: TruMedia)Ghana attempted 21 shots to the USMNT's eight, but the U.S. attempted two of the three most high-value shots of the match and scored on both. The Americans led from the first minute thanks to Dempsey and gave Ghana a lot of the ball -- one way that game state can impact the xG totals. But after Andr Ayew equalized in the 82nd minute, John Brooks scored on a corner, and the U.S. finally beat Ghana.June 22, 2014: USA 2, No. 4 Portugal 2Total xG: USA 1.90, Portugal 1.79Another huge result against Portugal and one of the more entertaining U.S. World Cup matches. The U.S. had to recover from an awful start: A defensive miscue gifted Nani a goal and a 1-0 Portugal lead in the fifth minute. But the Americans put together a sustained assault in the second half: Bradley forced a huge block from Ricardo Costa in the 55th minute, and Jermaine Jones tied the score with a rocket less than 10 minutes later. Dempsey belly-bumped a go-ahead goal in the 81st minute, but Portugal tied it with nearly the last kick of the match. A wild match and a deserved draw, one that virtually assured the U.S. a spot in the knockout rounds.June 26, 2014: No. 2 Germany 1, USA 0Total xG: Germany 1.26, USA 0.37It's good that the Americans had mostly locked things up because they really didn't do much here. They attempted just two shots before second-half stoppage time, and once Germany scored early in the second half, that was about it.July 1, 2014: No. 11 Belgium 2, USA 1Total xG: Belgium 5.66, USA 2.29In the second minute of second-half stoppage time, Chris Wondolowski missed an incredible opportunity that would have won the match for the USMNT. But (A) if he nicks it on target, Belgium's Thibaut Courtois possibly gets a piece of it and knocks it off-target anyway -- the xG for the shot was 0.51, which is high but not a guaranteed goal; and (B) that would have been one of the great smash-and-grabs of all time. Belgium had attempted 32 shots worth 3.8 xG in regulation, while the U.S. had managed only seven worth 0.3.Tim Howard finished the match with a World Cup-record 15 (or 16!) saves; he certainly deserved to advance. But evidently fate wouldn't let Wondo and the Americans steal this one.2018 World Cup qualificationOver the previous two World Cups, the U.S. hadn't been nearly good enough against the top teams, but had established a solid level of play against everyone else.U.S. vs. FIFA top 11 (four matches): 2 points, minus-2 goal differential, minus-5.3 xG differentialU.S. vs. everyone else (four matches): 7 points, plus-1 goal differential, plus-3.9 xG differentialThis clearly wasn't one of the best teams in the world, but a ranking in the teens made plenty of sense. The results projected some stability. But then came an almost unthinkable wave of instability. In qualification for the 2018 World Cup, the Americans laid a couple of eggs that gave them less margin for error, and they suffered a truckload of poor fortune as well.Nov. 12, 2016: No. 17 Mexico 2, USA 1Total xG: USA 0.84, Mexico 0.49This one probably should have been a draw or a U.S. win, but Mexico scored on shots worth 0.03 and 0.05 xG, and though Bobby Wood scored on the only high-value opportunity of the match (0.45 xG), Mexico took all three points.Nov. 16, 2016: No. 18 Costa Rica 4, USA 0Total xG: Costa Rica 1.93, USA 0.25This was an absolute dud in San Jose, though it should have been more like 2-0 than 4-0. Regardless, instead of earning one or three points, the U.S. went 0-for-2 in its first two matches and fired manager Jurgen Klinsmann.March 25, 2017: USA 6, No. 65 Honduras 0Total xG: USA 2.07, Honduras 0.77The second qualification window started with an easy win over Honduras. The 6-0 score was even more inflated than the Costa Rica deficit, but it got the U.S. back on track ... for one match.March 29, 2017: USA 1, No. 53 Panama 1Total xG: Panama 1.25, USA 0.90Another dud of a road trip. The U.S. was in control until Dempsey's 39th-minute goal, but Panama outshot the Americans 12-4 the rest of the way and came closer than the U.S. to scoring a winner. Two more dropped points.June 9, 2017: USA 2, No. 77 Trinidad & Tobago 0Total xG: USA 2.01, T&T 0.89The third qualification window again started well enough. After a frustrating first half, the U.S. took control thanks to a pair of Christian Pulisic goals in the second.June 12, 2017: USA 1, No. 17 Mexico 1Total xG: Mexico 0.77, USA 0.39Bradley scored from 30 meters out in the sixth minute (0.03 xG), but Mexico's Carlos Vela equalized in the 23rd, and the two teams played even ball from there. A draw at Estadio Azteca is always a solid result, and it gave the U.S. four points in one window. It was back up into third place. Things were starting to look up after a slow start.September 1, 2017: No. 21 Costa Rica 2, USA 0Total xG: USA 1.15, Costa Rica 0.71Another pretty unfortunate result. The U.S. attempted three of the four most valuable shots, but only Costa Rica put the ball in the net. The Americans were still in third place, but needed a win in Honduras.September 5, 2017: USA 1, No. 75 Honduras 1Total xG: USA 1.35, Honduras 0.68The most unfortunate and costly result of the process. Once again, creating decent scoring opportunities didn't translate into scoring, and the draw meant that the U.S. was again out of the top three. It would need six points from the last window to assure qualification.October 6, 2017: USA 4, No. 60 Panama 0Total xG: USA 3.59, Panama 0.53So far, so good.October 11, 2017: No. 99 Trinidad & Tobago 2, USA 1Total xG: T&T 1.30, USA 0.73The dud that ended it. The U.S. still would have qualified for the interconfederation playoffs had either Mexico or Costa Rica held on to leads -- one last burst of misfortune -- but it was genuinely outplayed by a team that had nothing to play for. The U.S. finished with the second-best xG differential and third-best goal differential, but this loss and the misfortune against Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama resulted in a fifth-place finish.2022 World CupAfter another less-than-the-sum-of-its-parts qualification session -- the U.S. was comfortably first in xG differential and second in goal differential but finished tied for third with Costa Rica -- Gregg Berhalter's team made it back to the dance in 2022. And the Americans' performances almost precisely matched their underlying numbers, for once.Nov. 21, 2022: USA 1, No. 19 Wales 1Total xG: Wales 1.55, USA 0.79The Americans were in control and scored in the 36th minute (Pulisic to Tim Weah) but ceded far too much ground when ahead. That was a bit of a trend under Berhalter. Gareth Bale equalized in the 82nd minute, and the U.S. had nothing to offer in attack at the end. Taking game state into account, this was probably a fair draw, but it was a major missed opportunity.Nov. 25, 2022: USA 0, No. 5 England 0Total xG: England 0.77, USA 0.63Against a far better England team, the U.S. played with poise and control. Walker Zimmerman blocked a solid early opportunity from Harry Kane, and Kane missed a decent chance late in stoppage time, but in between, the Americans generated more chances and more xG. Their last shot came in the 62nd minute, meaning they once again probably closed up shop a hair early, but the result was positive and with a win over Iran, they would advance to the knockout rounds.Nov. 29, 2022: USA 1, No. 20 Iran 0Total xG: USA 1.18, Iran 0.42Let's break this game into two parts.In the first 50 minutes, the U.S. attempted 10 shots worth 0.92 xG and allowed none. Christian Pulisic's physically risky goal in the 38th minute gave the Americans the lead, and they were in control of the ball (62% possession) and the scoreboard.Over the last 40 minutes, Iran had 64% possession and attempted four shots, including a couple of solid opportunities in the 52nd minute (0.18 xG, missed) and deep in stoppage time (0.18 xG, blocked by Zimmerman). The U.S., meanwhile, managed just two shots, one on virtually the last touch of the match.The U.S. survived and advanced, but once again, a willingness to sacrifice late control nearly cost the Americans.Dec. 3, 2022: No. 8 Netherlands 3, USA 1Total xG: Netherlands 1.67, USA 1.49Though the Americans generated 63% possession overall, they managed only three first-half shot attempts, and only the first one (from Pulisic in the third minute) was dangerous. Meanwhile, the Dutch scored on two of their four shots and took a commanding lead. Behind and desperate, the U.S. attempted 14 shots in the second half, but only a couple had value, and after Haji Wright scored, Denzel Dumfries responded, and the Dutch cruised. If Pulisic's early chance goes in, everything perhaps plays out differently, but the Dutch were still superior.2026 World CupAnd now, we fit the most recent World Cup into this 36-year puzzle. The U.S. headed into its second hosting gig in confusing and conflicting form -- a run of excellence last fall was replaced by a pair of relative duds against European heavyweights this spring -- and finished the tournament in basically the same place. Can xG help to straighten out what fans should take away from this run of five matches?June 12, 2026: USA 4, No. 41 Paraguay 1Total xG: USA 1.42, Paraguay 0.53In the first two matches of this tournament, the U.S. figured out a fun trick: score from an early own goal, and watch how much easier that makes everything else!Damin Bobadilla's seventh-minute own goal and a pair of brilliant finishes from Folarin Balogun on shots worth 0.16 and 0.14 xG, respectively, made this more of a laugher than it perhaps should have been, but the own goal came from heavy U.S. pressure, and the Americans still dominated a team that would allow only two goals in 210 minutes against Germany and France.(Source: TruMedia)Especially considering the game state, this was a brilliant performance, probably the best from the U.S. since the Portugal match in 2006.June 19, 2026: USA 2, No. 27 Australia 0Total xG: USA 1.08, Australia 0.35It was a similar story here. The U.S. benefited from another pressured own goal -- this time from Cameron Burgess in the 11th minute -- and scored more than xG suggested they should have, but they were also the clearly superior team against an opponent that had just beaten Trkiye.June 25, 2026: No. 22 Trkiye 3, USA 2Total xG: Trkiye 3.06, USA 2.13In a way, this one was almost as encouraging as the first two. Having already clinched the group, manager Mauricio Pochettino started an almost total lineup of backups, but against a talented Trkiye team playing for pride, the Americans basically broke even until the final shot of the match, a goal from Kaan Ayhan (0.60 xG) deep into stoppage time. This one wrecked the USMNT's xG averages, but it only sort of counts.July 1, 2026: USA 2, No. 64 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0Total xG: USA 0.88, Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.25Against a team with plenty of physical stature and not much attacking speed, the U.S. attempted only seven shots, but six of them had higher xG values than anything Bosnia & Herzegovina put together. Balogun scored on the most high-value shot of the evening in the 45th minute, and even playing a man down for 26 minutes after Balogun's controversial red card, the U.S. cruised.July 6, 2026: No. 9 Belgium 4, USA 1Total xG: Belgium 2.01, USA 0.63Aside from perhaps Czechia, it seems as if the U.S. is more guaranteed to stink against Belgium than almost anyone else. These teams have played five times in the past 15 years, and Belgium has won all five matches by a combined 16-6.That doesn't make this stinky performance any less frustrating, of course. Not including the Trkiye match, the U.S. came into this one having massively overachieved in the scoring department -- the Americans scored eight goals from shots worth 3.4 xG -- but they had also allowed only 0.4 xG per match. In the round of 16, they not only played by far their best opponent yet; they also just stunk up the joint. It seemed every pass was off-target and every dribble was too heavy. With all of the controversy swirling around Balogun's, um, suspended suspension, it just felt like the lights got too bright for the U.S.Meanwhile, Belgium had a good plan for breaking the Americans' press and realized pretty quickly that against a hesitant U.S. back line, a little bit of extra pressure might go a long way. Regression in form, combined with regression to the mean in the xG department, created a blowout.The USMNT's true narrative at the World CupThe goal of this exercise was to pit our narratives against underlying stats. It has been a justifiable source of frustration that, after the breakthrough run of 2002, the U.S. has figured out ways to get more and more of its players into big European clubs but hasn't come close to matching that World Cup result. But if you squint, you can still see slow growth.1990 and 1994 World Cups: minus-1.7 xG differential per match1998, 2002 and 2006: minus-0.62010 and 2014: minus-0.22022: minus-0.12026: plus-0.2 without the Turkey match (minus-0.1 overall)You can easily make the case that this level of growth is too slow, especially with the failures of the 2018 cycle. But though the single bounce of a ball can impact four years' worth of narratives, the U.S. has slowly solidified itself as a soccer country.Will it ever dent the superiority of Western Europe's best football associations and create a genuine top-10-level program? It's hard to say we have evidence for that. But it has still made up a lot of ground over the past 36 years.
