EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIn 2024, the Chicago White Sox were one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball history, so much so that some bettors adopted a strategy of fading them every single game. But less than two years later, Chicago has completely flipped the script.At the All-Star break, the White Sox are tied with the Cleveland Guardians atop the American League Central standings and, at 50-45, are thoroughly on track to exceed their preseason win total of 67.5. The South Siders came into the 2026 season with 16-1 odds to make the postseason and 35-1 odds to win the division -- numbers that have shortened to -115 and +200, respectively, per DraftKings lines.The remarkable turnaround combined with low bookmaker expectations means that Chicago has been the most profitable betting team in MLB at the proverbial midway point: If a bettor placed a bet on the White Sox' moneyline every game, they would be up a league-best 11.59 units, assisted by Chicago's average moneyline odds of +112.Many bettors are buying into the somewhat unexpected success ... which, in turn, is putting sportsbooks in a bind, both on a day-to-day and futures basis. Bookmakers from BetMGM, Caesars and DraftKings told ESPN that the White Sox are now among the largest (if not the single largest) liabilities across a variety of futures markets."The team that'll turn the lights out here for about a day or so is if the White Sox get it done," Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said. "They're the biggest adjustment we've had to make from World Series prices, divisional prices, you name it. People came in not with huge money but at long odds -- and especially to win the division at 25-1 -- every $50 ticket, that adds up. So we've got some serious liability on them."DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello notes that many bettors are continuing to throw down futures wagers at the reduced prices, driving the hazard up further. BetMGM reports Chicago as its largest liability to win the AL pennant.The White Sox' success has been so pronounced, they're even giving their crosstown rivals, the Chicago Cubs, a genuine challenge for the hearts of bettors."They're a Chicago team and they certainly don't have the following that the Cubs have," said Avello. "The Cubs are one of those teams that we can expect future money on them before the season starts and there's Cubs fans everywhere. White Sox are not that same type of team, but they do have their fans, and right now it seems like some people have jumped on the bandwagon because they're playing so well."Meanwhile, in Queens...On the other side of the spectrum in terms of 2026 expectations, the New York Mets are having an epically disappointing season.At the All-Star break, the Mets' 40-57 record is better than only three other teams in baseball and is well off the pace from their preseason win total of 90.5, tied for the second-highest in the majors coming into the 2026 campaign. New York's World Series odds have dropped off from 13-1 to an astounding 400-1.With an average moneyline of -123, a bet on the Mets every game would provide a given bettor with a league-worst -32.40 units."For the first couple months, they were one of the teams that made us the most money because people continued to bet them as a favorite and they continued to lose," said Biggio. "To win the National League, they were one of our bigger liabilities. So I think we're pretty safe on that one."The vibes are so bad around the Mets that bettors have largely abandoned betting on them on a day-to-day basis. Avello said that customers will sometimes take a shot on the Mets if they're underdogs in a game, but are largely "afraid to lay a price with this team.""Usually when the bettors think that they have a chance, they will bet the Mets pretty good, but this year they haven't shown any good signs of being a competitor," he said. "The Mets aren't drawing the kind of action that they would normally draw. There's just not a lot of faith in them."The World Series contendersThough the White Sox and Mets may be the most interesting betting stories of the MLB season thus far, the World Series favorites from the beginning of the campaign remain the same and have only gotten shorter to win the 2026 championship.The Los Angeles Dodgers -- who began the season with +230 World Series odds, the shortest since 2003 -- are still the favorites at +190, while the New York Yankees have maintained second place, moving from 10-1 to +550 for this season's title.Bookmakers say that both teams were popular with bettors early on, though their short odds dictate they won't necessarily be liabilities. BetMGM reports a whopping 21.9% of handle backing Los Angeles for the World Series, with New York second at 9.1%, and both teams are the easy money leaders for their respective league pennants.If neither squad is able to take home the Commissioner's Trophy this season, bookmakers are on the lookout for several other teams that could be losses for them.The Boston Red Sox had one of the most mercurial first halves of the season: they started the year at 16-1 for the World Series, plunged into the 100-1 range with months of terrible play, then entered the All-Star break on a nine game winning streak to give them 40-1 championship odds. Avello and Biggio both note that bettors gravitated toward Boston during the depths of its despair, making the Red Sox a decent futures liability going forward.Both bookmakers also pointed to the St. Louis Cardinals massively exceeding expectations in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. While the Cards are still World Series long shots at 170-1, they've been hugely profitable on the moneyline this season, going up a third-best 8.87 units for a daily bettor.BetMGM notes that St. Louis is its third-largest liability if the Cardinals were to do the unlikely and win the World Series.
