EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsDespite a beautifully unpredictable group stage and a consistently dramatic set of three knockout rounds, we've somehow managed to land exactly where everyone thought we would at the start of the 2026 World Cup.The four favorites from each quadrant of the bracket -- France, Spain, England and Argentina -- have crafted a star-studded set of semifinals. France and Spain will meet in Dallas on Tuesday, before England and Argentina face off on Wednesday in Atlanta.While France has been mostly comfortable to date, each of the other three semifinalists have needed late-game excellence to hold on and get to this stage. But all four attacks have been pretty unique.- Preview: What you need to know about World Cup semifinals- Hate extra time, penalties? Meet the man trying to replace them- World Cup's breakout stars: Diomande, Manzambi, Saibari, moreAs we prepare for the final four matches of an exhilarating tournament, let's ask a simple question: How do each of these semifinalists score the goals that got them here?FRANCE: The second goal's a counterattack- Goals: CF Kylian Mbapp 8, RW Ousmane Dembl 5, LW Bradley Barcola 2, LW Dsir Dou 1- Assists: CAM Michael Olise 5, Mbappe 3, Dembele 2, four players with 1- xG+xA: Mbappe 6.3, Olise 4.5, Dembele 3.0, Barcola 1.9, DM Adrien Rabiot 1.4, Doue 1.3, CF Jean-Philippe Mateta 1.2, CB Dayot Upamecano 1.0- Progressive carries (possessions ending in goal): Mbappe 4, Doue 4, Olise 3, Barcola 2, Dembele 2, LB Theo Hernndez 2, RB Jules Kound 2, CB Maxence Lacroix 2, five players with 1- Progressive passes (possessions ending in goal): Olise 6, Mbappe 4, Rabiot 3, CB William Saliba 3, DM Aurlien Tchouamni 2, four players with 1- Duels won (possessions ending in goal): Mbappe 4, Doue 4, Olise 2, Tchouameni 1No one in the World Cup has scored more goals from counterattacks than France's three. All three came when France were up 1-0: Adrien Rabiot assisted Bradley Barcola against Senegal, Kylian Mbappe assisted Ousmane Dembele against Norway, and Michael Olise assisted Barcola against Sweden. For that matter, their second goal against Morocco -- another Mbappe-to-Dembele job -- wasn't technically a counter, but it was sudden and vertical all the same.A France goal is quite likely to involve transition in some way - a ground duel won, a progressive carry or a ball recovery in an opportune position and then sudden danger. France have always attacked more vertically than other dominant nations; it's been the best way to get the most out of Mbappe, and in Dembele and either Barcola or Desire Doue, he has by far his most dynamic dance partners yet.Honestly, you could even make the case that France's most important attacker isn't even Mbappe, no matter how many goals he's scored.Olise hasn't found his shooting range at all in the U.S. -- he's attempted 17 shots worth 2.1 xG, but has yet to score -- but he's averaging 16 progressive carries per game in the knockout rounds. (For a frame of reference, he averaged 10.7 while absolutely dominating the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich this past season.)And wherever Olise needs to go to fill a gap for the French attack, that's where he is.Once France open the spigot, it stays open. They scored three times in 30 minutes against Senegal, three times in 25 minutes against Norway, three times in 29 minutes against Sweden and twice in six minutes against Morocco. The first goal, however, has taken a while at times; after all, you can't beautifully attack open spaces if they don't exist. They needed until the 66th minute to score against Senegal, until the 70th against Paraguay in the round of 16 and until the 60th against Morocco in the quarterfinals.They always break through, but sometimes it requires some extreme grinding (as against Paraguay), and sometimes it requires a moment of absolute magic, like Mbappe's tiebreaker against Morocco. That's like the soccer version of a step-back jumper. He created space from nothing, but still got enough power on it to beat an excellent keeper.Spain vs. France will be a ridiculously interesting semifinal for a million different reasons, but here's one I'm really intrigued by: Spain isn't going to park the bus. They defend with the ball in their possession, and they're willing to make games extremely boring -- a compliment, I swear -- if it keeps you far away from their goal. They've allowed just one goal in six matches, and they could make France defend more and theoretically take their attacking legs away in the process.Or they could leave exactly the spaces that France love to exploit and lose big. It could go either way, and I can't wait to watch.SPAIN: Lamine Yamal as decoy- Goals: CF Mikel Oyarzabal 4, CAM Mikel Merino 2, four players with one- Assists: LB Marc Cucurella 2, six players with one- xG+xA: Oyarzabal 3.7, RW Lamine Yamal 2.5, LW Ferran Torres 2.1, DM Pedri 1.9, CAM Dani Olmo 1.9, Merino 1.8, LW lex Baena 1.7, Cucurella 1.5, DM Rodri 1.3, RB Pedro Porro 1.2, CM Fabin Ruiz 1.1- Progressive carries (possessions ending in goal): Rodri 3, CB Pau Cubars 3, Porro 2, Pedri 2, seven players with one- Progressive passes (possessions ending in goal): Pedri 6, Rodri 3, Cucurella 3, CB Aymeric Laporte 2, Porro 2, Yamal 2, three players with one- Duels won (possessions ending in goal): RB Marcos Llorente 1, Merino 1, Oyarzabal 1, Rodri 1, Torres 1Spain's eight goals in six matches are easily the fewest of any semifinalist. That would be more alarming if they had allowed more than one goal in the tournament, but even with their extreme talent and generally mistake-free play, they've left games dangerously close. They suffered a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their tournament opener and almost got hit by a shocking late counterattack; more recently, they weren't able to put either Belgium (in the quarterfinals) or Portugal (in the round of 16) away until the 88th and 91st minutes, respectively.Both goals were scored by substitute Mikel Merino, which is a cool story in itself. But Spain would benefit more from not waiting so damn long to find the winner.Now, in other words, would be a good time for Lamine Yamal to get a little bit more connected to the rest of the attack.Yamal's been hard to evaluate in this tournament. He's 18 years old, and he's already the primary defensive focus for every opponent. He's still led his team in shot attempts worth 0.2 xG or more (three), shots on goal (10), 1v1 attempts (48, with no one else over 13), ground duels won (36), fouls won (seven), fouls won in the attacking third (three) and crosses completed (six). He's also second in average carry distance (6.1 meters), ball recoveries in the attacking third (eight) and, perhaps most surprisingly, tackles won in the defensive third (four). No one in the tournament has attempted more than his 78 ground duels, and only Morocco's Achraf Hakimi has won more than his 36.Yamal's doing so many things and is putting in the work, but after producing five combined goals and assists at Euro 2024, he's produced only one goal with no assists in six World Cup matches. Opponents have kept him isolated on the wing, winning duels but finding nowhere productive to go with the ball. Therefore, goals have had to come from the other side of the pitch.Against France, they could hog the ball and limit counterattacking opportunities, but the French back line is so incredibly destructive in 1v1 situations -- center-backs Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba and fullbacks Jules Kounde and Lucas Digne have won 62% of ground duels and 61% of aerial duels in this tournament -- and Spain will need their very best attacker to do some incredible things.You know, like he did two years ago against France.ENGLAND: Leverage and rebounds- Goals: CM Jude Bellingham 6, CF Harry Kane 6, LW Marcus Rashford 1- Assists: LW Anthony Gordon 3, RW Bukayo Saka 3, four players with one- xG+xA: Kane 4.56, Bellingham 3.52, RW Noni Madueke 2.07, LB Nico O'Reilly 1.27, Rashford 1.17- Progressive carries (possessions ending in goal): Saka 4, Bellingham 3, DM Declan Rice 3, DM Elliott Anderson 2, O'Reilly 2, GK Jordan Pickford 2, four players with one- Progressive passes (possessions ending in goal): Anderson 3, Rashford 2, eight players with one- Duels won (possessions ending in goal): Gordon 3, five players with oneEngland have had a journey over this past month. In six matches they've been about five different teams. The fun (and mostly healthy) team we saw thumping Croatia in the tournament opener spent their next three matches struggling mightily to break down low-block defenses and quickly cycling through a number of right backs looking for a healthy one. After surviving Congo DR in the round of 32, they got four goals from Jude Bellingham in two matches to beat Mexico and Norway: the former in the absurd elevation of Mexico City, the latter in the absurd midday heat and humidity of Miami.England haven't been the best team, but they've survived each unique test uniquely. As someone who married himself to the idea that It's Coming Home, it's been heartening, if stressful.For a team that looks so different hour to hour, though, England have still produced some themes in their goal-scoring possessions.- Six have involved headers - four goals, plus two more shots that created rebounds- Five involved successful crosses.- Five involved set pieces, either directly or indirectlyThere are plenty of rebounds involved -- in the knockout rounds, they've averaged 1.4 shots per scoring possession, the most of any semifinalist. And for the tournament they're averaging 4.7 box touches per scoring possession, also the most. Aside from a couple of breakaways against Mexico, they've been best at arranging bodies in advantageous areas and sending the ball in after them. It certainly worked to put away Norway. As you can probably piece together from the fact that wingers Gordon and Saka have six of England's 10 assists, crosses have been a pretty solid weapon for England as well. England have averaged 21.5 cross attempts per game, the sixth-most in the tournament (among semifinalists, only Spain have attempted more), and looking specifically at open-play situations (no corners), their 3.8 completed crosses per game rank fifth.There are some old-school, get-it-into-the-mixer vibes here, but when combined with top-to-bottom big-club talent and a willingness to bunker in to defend a lead, it's worked.I'm curious if this works against Argentina. Their semifinal opponents have primarily allowed goals from sudden, brilliant strikes with no rebounds. Jordan's goal and Egypt's second came from high-percentage opportunities, but usually you need a great individual effort to score on the defending champs. Can England provide that?ARGENTINA: Either set pieces, lateness or both- Goals: CF Leo Messi 8, CF Lautaro Martnez 2, CF Julin lvarez 1, LM Giovani Lo Celso 1, CM Enzo Fernndez 1, CM Alexis Mac Allister 1, CB Cristian Romero 1- Assists: Messi 2, eight players with one- xG+xA: Messi 8.67, Martinez 2.78, LW Nico Gonzlez 1.63, Mac Allister 1.58, Fernandez 1.50, Alvarez 1.36- Progressive carries (possessions ending in goal): CM Leandro Paredes 8, Messi 6, CB Lisandro Martnez 4, LM Thiago Almada 4, CB Nicols Otamendi 3, RM Rodrigo De Paul 3, Alvarez 2, Romero 2, Mac Allister 2, Fernandez 2, two players with one- Progressive passes (possessions ending in goal): Messi 6, Paredes 3, Martinez 3, De Paul 2, Mac Allister 2, Almada 2, CM Enzo Fernandez 2, RM Giuliano Simeone 2, 10 players with one- Duels won (possessions ending in goal): Mac Allister 3, De Paul 2, Almada 2, Alvarez 2, five players with oneArgentina have scored 16 goals in this tournament. Leo Messi has scored eight of them and assisted two more, and he's played a role in some of the others, too, like firing in a tough shot that Switzerland's Gregor Kobel could only parry, beginning the sequence that ended with Julian Alvarez's game-winning goal in the quarterfinals. Even beyond goals themselves, Messi has had a hand in almost everything threatening Argentina have done; he comfortably leads the tournament in combined xG and xA.It would therefore have been pretty easy to just say "Argentina scores because of the 39-year-old G.O.A.T." But there have been two other dominant Argentina trends:1. They have dominated on set pieces. They've been officially credited with five set piece goals in six games, the most in the tournament. And it even goes beyond that: Three other goal-scoring possessions also featured corners, even if they didn't directly lead to the goal.Messi's corners are effective enough that Argentina even maintain possession from them if they don't score. Considering they scored only two set-piece goals in 2022, this has been a life saver in 2026.2. When they need a late goal, they score it. Argentina have certainly given themselves some work to do considering what looks on paper to be a pretty easy path to the semis -- they've only beaten one team that ranks higher than 23rd in the FIFA rankings. They were down 2-0 against No. 24 Egypt in the 79th minute (and tied in the second minute of stoppage time) in the round of 16; they were tied in the 111th minute against No. 64 (but No. 1 in our hearts) Cape Verde in the round of 32; and they were tied in the 112th minute against Switzerland in the quarters.In each instance, however, they ratcheted up the pressure until the goals came. They got a goal from Lisandro Martinez and an own goal against Cape Verde, then Cristian Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernandez all scored against Egypt. Messi couldn't break through against the Swiss, so Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez did instead.Considering Thomas Tuchel's willingness to ask England to park the bus late in elimination games, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a scenario in which England lead late in the semis, and Argentina are constantly searching for the equalizer with long, late possessions.
