EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWhat if the MVP award were just for position players?The Cy Young Award has always been strictly for pitchers, so that would mean two distinct groups of big league players competing for two distinct awards, with no overlap.Pitchers have won MVP awards several times, even though those winners didn't have Shohei Ohtani's built-in advantage of being a premier hitter and premier pitcher. Pitchers have always been eligible to win MVP, and there is no reason they shouldn't be. In reality, though, pitchers face an uphill battle in MVP voting, due, at least in part, to the opinion of some that "pitchers have their own award."The reason I bring this up now is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is fresh off an epic June that propelled him to the best position player AXE in the majors.So, let's say that pitchers were ineligible for MVP honors (a hypothetical, not a pitch for a policy change). Crow-Armstrong and other National League standouts are at a disadvantage in the MVP race because it takes overwhelming production for anyone to outproduce Ohtani's combined output as an elite hitter and an elite, full-time starting pitcher.In this hypothetical, where Ohtani's pitching production does not count for MVP, Ohtani would rank sixth in the NL MVP race for his work as a designated hitter, while maintaining the fifth spot he owns in the Cy Young race. That's unfathomably impressive ... but he would not be the front-runner in either race.Instead, Crow-Armstrong would be the player to beat in the NL MVP chase and it wouldn't, at the moment, be that close. Such is the reality for any NL player sharing a circuit with Ohtani when he's doing what he's doing now -- hitting and pitching in full-time roles, and doing so with All-Star-level performance.It's not impossible for PCA or someone else to overcome this version of Ohtani, but to beat someone doing unprecedented things, you've got to do something historic. And even then, it might not be enough.Most Valuable PlayerAmerican LeagueFront-runner: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142.2 AXE)Next nine: 2. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (139.2); 3. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (137.2); 4. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (135.0); 5. Dillon Dingler, Tigers (130.6); 6. Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox (128.6); 7. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (126.5); 8. Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees (125.9); 9. Junior Caminero, Rays (125.6); 10. Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox (125.0)Leader trend: Witt has been plugging along just fine, even as the team around him sinks deeper in the standings. Though Witt has been atop this leaderboard all season -- even before Aaron Judge got hurt -- it still feels like his status as the AXE front-runner for the AL's MVP is tenuous. For one thing, his lofty numbers are boosted by his terrific defensive metrics instead of eye-popping offensive production. Among AL hitters, he's tied for sixth in runs created.No one in this category is a clear front-runner, and that includes Witt. In his case, given the Royals' status as a noncontender, he probably needs some separation. That didn't happen during the period since our last Awards Watch, when Witt was more solid than spectacular and missed a few games because of a right knee issue. But there is time for it to happen, especially if Witt goes on the kind of tear he has enjoyed in previous seasons.Biggest mover: Caminero has bashed his way into MVP chatter, thanks to a home run binge that has made him the face of the Rays' recent resurgence. That's true even though Caminero ranks second on his own team in AXE, behind the underrated Diaz. The homers are nothing new for Caminero, who bashed 45 of them last season, his age-21 campaign. What is new is Caminero's rapid maturation into a well-rounded hitter.The evolution has been amazing. Caminero's strikeout rate has fallen in each of his four big league seasons. More strikingly, his walk rate has more than doubled since last season. This season, Caminero has a slash line that indicates he's so much more than a pure masher. His overall value is held back to an extent by his defense and baserunning numbers, but if he hits .300 with 50 homers on a division champion, it might not matter.Keep an eye on: If the White Sox are going to be 2026's Cinderella story, why not a Cinderella MVP candidacy? Vargas is the club's AXE leader. He's a leader in the White Sox clubhouse, and, as evidenced by his top-10 ranking among AL hitters in win probability added, his production has been clutch. It's a long shot, but if the White Sox keep up their amazing trajectory, and the AL race remains muddled, why not Vargas?National LeagueFront-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (157.9 AXE)Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (151.1); 3. Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins (132.0); 4. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (131.5); 5. JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals (131.3); 6. James Wood, Washington Nationals (129.7); 7. Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (128.9); 8. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (127.2); 9. Max Muncy, Dodgers (126.4); 10. Andy Pages, Dodgers (126.0)Leader trend: Ohtani keeps piling up hitting and pitching numbers. He remains on track to top 5.0 WAR in both areas. That's something he has never done in the same season, which means it's something no one has done in the same season. This is the monumental task everyone else on this leaderboard is facing.The real concern is Ohtani's health. Not that he's having an issue; it's just that the sudden appearance of an injury seems like the one thing that could curb his run to another MVP. If Ohtani stays in the Dodgers' lineup and rotation, it's hard to imagine anyone catching him in the MVP race.But if we think of run prevention writ large -- pitching and fielding -- this might be relevant: In the Baseball Reference formulation of WAR, Crow-Armstrong has saved 12 runs above the average defender. Meanwhile, Ohtani's total for pitching is 17 runs above average.Ohtani is the clear leader and the heavy favorite. But the race is not over.Biggest mover: Crow-Armstrong's defense and baserunning will always give him a high floor. But it's his hitting, especially of late, that shows just how high his ceiling is. Since our last edition, Crow-Armstrong has hit .367/.451/.734 with 13 homers and nine steals over 34 games.Crow-Armstrong finished 2025 with 5.9 bWAR, good enough to earn him down-ballot support in the MVP voting. He's already at 5.2 in 2026, pairing his leaps at the plate with defensive numbers headed for historic territory. Driving Crow-Armstrong's improvement at the plate have been swing decisions that have leveled up a tier or two over his past seasons. He remains far from a high-contact hitter, but his walk rate has gone from 4.5% last season to 10.3% this season.And PCA has done it in key moments. He leads NL hitters in win probability added and championship probability added. He has become the full package.Keep an eye on: Lopez has edged into the No. 3 slot, and given the Marlins' surge in June, it's appropriate to shine some light on his breakout season. Lopez has already set a career high in bWAR (3.8), while leading the NL in average (.332) and hits (112). He's on pace for 211 hits, so it's not impossible that he could threaten Juan Pierre's Marlins single-season record (221). Lopez is bidding to join Hanley Ramirez, Dee Strange-Gordon and Luis Arraez as the only Marlins to win a batting crown. Lopez probably isn't going to be the NL's MVP, but his season should not be overlooked.Cy YoungAmerican LeagueFront-runner: Cam Schlittler, Yankees (136.9 AXE)Next nine: 2. Davis Martin, White Sox (135.0); 3. Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians (131.7); 4. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (130.8); 5. Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays (130.5); 6. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (128.5); 7. Nick Martinez, Rays (125.8); 8. Michael Wacha, Royals (125.8); 9. Casey Mize, Tigers (125.7); 10. Ranger Suarez, Red Sox (124.8)Leader trend: AXE is built on advanced metrics. That's supposed to help clarify matters when it comes to awards, but nothing really clarifies the AL Cy Young race right now. The top three are unchanged since the last edition, including Schlittler at the top.Schlittler didn't have a bad June, but he wasn't as dominant as during the season's opening weeks. His worst outing was his last -- six earned runs and four homers allowed against Boston on Tuesday. He gave up seven long balls during the month. Schlittler remains on top, but his grip on that spot isn't as firm. His front-running status, similar to that of the Yankees overall, has been murkier as we've gotten into summer.Biggest mover: Rasmussen has been on fire. He allowed just three runs over 33 innings in June, posting an AL-leading 0.82 ERA. He's second in the AL's ERA chase (2.45) and leads the junior circuit with a 0.87 WHIP. He has been good for a while, even as his volume has been impacted by injuries. Rasmussen has posted an ERA under 3.00 in each of the five seasons since the Rays acquired him in the trade that sent Willy Adames to the Brewers.Keep an eye on: Cease has been one of the AL's most dominant starters, leading the league in strikeouts (128) while fanning a career-best 13.8 batters per nine innings. In June, that strikeout ratio went up to 15.2, and he didn't allow a home run all month. Cease posted a 2.95 ERA during that span, a mark that would have been better if not for a few too many walks and some lousy BABIP luck. Things appear to be coming together for Cease in his first season with the Blue Jays, and he seems poised for a big second half. He'll be in the AL Cy Young mix.National LeagueFront-runner: Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (159.6 AXE)Next nine: 2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (153.1); 3. Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds (140.2); 4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (134.8); 5. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (134.0); 6. Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (131.1); 7. Chris Sale, Braves (130.6); 8. Max Meyer, Marlins (130.4); 9. Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates (129.4); 10. Mason Miller, San Diego Padres (127.7)Leader trend: Misiorowski briefly nudged ahead of Sanchez in AXE before a pedestrian (for him) outing that was followed by a Sanchez gem. The difference here remains Sanchez's NL-best 5.8 pitching bWAR, a figure that is 4.3 at FanGraphs. Both pitchers have been more than Cy Young worthy. In fact, if not for Ohtani, they might be generating MVP chatter as the main challengers to Crow-Armstrong. For now, Sanchez has the lead in AXE, while Misiorowski is probably the real-world favorite. This is a great race, the most dynamic in this year's awards derby.Biggest mover: Not listed is No. 16 on the AXE NL Cy Young leaderboard, Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants. If Webb has another month similar to June, he will certainly leap into the top five or top 10 before we put out the next Awards Watch. Webb led all pitchers with a 0.71 ERA last month, going 5-for-5 in quality starts and allowing just three runs over 38 innings. He walked just four batters over those five starts. When Webb's command is that sharp, he's as fun to watch as anybody. His big month boosted him from an all-position ranking in AXE of 496 to No. 82.Keep an eye on: Meyer has clearly turned the corner from onetime hyped prospect to big-league ace. Though he suffered his first loss at Colorado to begin July, mostly thanks to some shoddy defense behind him, Meyer began the season 9-0. In June, Meyer went 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA, making him a key contributor to the Marlins' 20-6 month. If Miami keeps climbing the ladder in the standings, so too will Meyer in the Cy Young race.Rookie of the YearAmerican LeagueFront-runner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (135.0 AXE)Next nine: 2. Parker Messick, Guardians (125.2); 3. Tristan Peters, White Sox (119.5); 4. Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (116.0); 5. Sam Antonacci, White Sox (115.8); 6. Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays (115.5); 7. Trey Yesavage, Blue Jays (112.2); 8. Gage Jump, Athletics (110.2); 9. Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles (109.2); 10. Spencer Miles, Blue Jays (108.5)Leader trend: McGonigle and Messick keep producing at a level that has them high on the leaderboards in races beyond the Rookie of the Year. McGonigle jumped out to the early lead in this category with a .935 OPS by the end of April. He still led despite a May OPS of just .644. In June, that figure was .840, a middle ground that should be sustainable. The question going forward is whether his numbers will be good enough should Murakami explode out of the gate when he returns from his right hamstring injury.Biggest mover: Jump's MLB debut was the day after the last Awards Watch came out. So, he has moved from off the board to No. 8, thanks to a sparkling beginning to his MLB career. He ran into some trouble Monday, facing the Dodgers in the minor league pinball machine the A's currently play in, but before that, he reeled off five starts with a 1.19 ERA without allowing a home run. Jump's stuff is terrific, and his mound presence is advanced. He's exactly the pitcher the A's needed.Keep an eye on: Almost anyone on the White Sox. Not everyone on the White Sox's contending roster is a rookie, though sometimes, it feels that way. Murakami was the Rookie of the Year favorite in the betting markets before he got hurt, and still ranks among the AL leaders with 20 homers even though he hasn't played since May 29. You can see Peters and Antonacci on the AXE leaderboard above, but Chicago has had numerous big moments from other rookies as well this season, and leads the majors in overall WAR from rookie players. You like rookies? Just watch the White Sox.National LeagueFront-runner: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (131.3 AXE)Next nine: 2. Foster Griffin, Nationals (118.2); 3. TJ Rumfield, Colorado Rockies (114.7); 4. Nolan McLean, New York Mets (109.7); 5. Sal Stewart, Reds (109.0); 6. Andrew Alvarez (108.2); 7. Carson Benge, Mets (107.5); 8. Konnor Griffin, Pirates (107.2); 9. Joe Mack, Marlins (107.0); 10. Didier Fuentes, Braves (106.9)Leader trend: Wetherholt has a headlock on this award, and barring injury, he seems poised to cruise to an easy win. There isn't one thing that makes Wetherholt distinctive -- it's everything. He controls at-bats, draws walks, makes contact, adds value on the bases and, so far, has played sparkling defense. If Wetherholt continues to do all of this in service of a Cardinals run back to the postseason, he will be particularly hard to overcome.Biggest mover: This board has changed a lot since the last edition, and Benge stands out as the most interesting new face. Benge has been a fixture for the Mets since Opening Day, and his production has gradually edged in the right direction. He rates a bit above average in all facets of the game and leads the Mets in hits and steals. The overall narrative of the Mets' season is, shall we say, decidedly not above average, but installing Benge in their outfield has been one of their good calls.Keep an eye on: Injuries kept Konnor Griffin on the sidelines for most of June, and his place in the AXE pecking order slipped accordingly. Since Griffin returned to the Pittsburgh lineup, he has been OK, going 6-for-23 with a homer. It's a modest output, but given his status as the game's top prospect entering the season and the comfort he has displayed on the field despite being the youngest player in the majors, his talent could explode at any moment.Manager of the YearAmerican LeagueFront-runner: Will Venable, White Sox (115.8 EARL)Next four: 2. Kevin Cash, Rays (113.3); 3. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.3); 4. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (104.1); 5. Skip Schumaker, Texas Rangers (98.8)Overview: Once upon a time, one of the primary traits managers were judged on was their ability to break in rookies. Well, the White Sox have gotten more from rookies than any other team -- and they are in first place. The younger they've gotten, the better they've played. If the White Sox maintain their current trajectory, there is no way Venable doesn't win this award.National LeagueFront-runner: Clayton McCullough, Marlins (111.6 EARL)Next four: 2. Pat Murphy, Brewers (109.1); 3. Blake Butera, Nationals (107.2); 4. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (105.9); 5. Don Mattingly, Phillies (105.1)Overview: Miami's huge June jetted McCullough to the top of the leaderboard in this category, hardly a surprise for a skipper leading a team that wasn't projected to contend. What's striking from a narrative standpoint is that before the Marlins went off last month, they seemed to be falling back toward their familiar spot out of playoff contention. At the end of May, Miami had dropped five straight and fallen to eight games under .500. One month later, the Marlins were six games over .500. That's the kind of thing that attracts attention in Manager of the Year balloting.
