EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsEditor's note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 versions of this yearly report provide overwhelming evidence.There are 151 names in those pieces and, in 137 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 90.7%. Last season, the piece correctly identified 20 of 21 TD dippers, with Zach Charbonnet (9 to 12) the lone exception. The 21 players averaged 11.7 TDs in 2024, were projected for 8.2 TDs in 2025 and ended up averaging 7.6 TDs.This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.You want proof? Good, I have it.During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 263 instances in which a player totaled at least 10 touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those 263, a whopping 213 (81.0%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season and the average change was a decrease of 4.8. Of the 64 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 61 (95.3%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.0). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and Kyren Williams (15 in 2023, 16 in 2024).Every player who scored 14-plus TDs in 2024 found the end zone less often in 2025: Jahmyr Gibbs (20 to 18), James Cook (18 to 14), Derrick Henry (18 to 16), Ja'Marr Chase (17 to 8), Williams (16 to 13), Josh Jacobs (16 to 14), Bijan Robinson (15 to 11), Saquon Barkley (15 to 9) and Jalen Hurts (14 to 8).Last season, Jonathan Taylor (20), Gibbs (18), Christian McCaffrey (17), Henry (16), Cook (14), Josh Allen (14), Davante Adams (14) and Jacobs (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs. Expect most (if not all) to see a dip in 2026.As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would have scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.A careful examination of each of the below player's 2025 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.Note that this study is limited to regular season rushing and receiving data.Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts 2025 TDs: 202026 Projected TDs: 13Our prior research makes it clear that Taylor faces an uphill battle to reach 20 touchdowns, as does the fact that only six players in NFL history (one of which is Taylor) have hit that mark twice (none have done it three times). The last player to score 20-plus touchdowns in consecutive seasons was LaDainian Tomlinson (2005-06). Taylor, who became the fourth player in league history to score three times in five different games, led the NFL in carries (323), finished second in carries inside the 5 (19) and finished third in expected TDs (14.4). Especially with a healthy Daniel Jones, Taylor will be positioned for double-digit scores, but a return to earth in the category is a good bet.Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles 2025 TDs: 112026 Projected TDs: 6If not Taylor, Goedert is this year's Poster Boy for touchdown regression to the mean. The veteran tight end totaled 24 touchdowns during his first 93 NFL regular season games (seven seasons) prior to finding the end zone 11 times over 15 games in 2025. Goedert had never scored more than five times in a single season and last year's five end zone targets were his most since he had six as a rookie in 2018. Goedert, who still has yet to finish a season top-10 among tight ends in end zone targets, posted an expected TD total of 5.1, which ranked seventh at the position. He was targeted while within 10 yards of the end zone 15 times and scored on 11 of them, which is well above the expected TD total of 4.7 on those plays.Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals 2025 TDs: 112026 Projected TDs: 8Higgins has scored 10-plus touchdowns in consecutive seasons after failing to clear seven scores during each of his first four pro seasons. Higgins' 10 scores in 2024 somewhat aligned with his usage (8.6 xTD, 14 end zone targets), but that wasn't quite the case last season (11 TDs, 6.5 xTD, 10 end zone targets). Higgins benefits from an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow, but he's never finished a season better than 27th among receivers in targets and his TD rate is headed for some regression. Expect a slight dip.De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins 2025 TDs: 122026 Projected TDs: 8Achane has scored either 11 or 12 touchdowns in each of his three NFL seasons, but he's likely headed for a dip as rebuilding Miami switches its quarterback (from Tua Tagovailoa to Malik Willis) and offensive playcaller (from Mike McDaniel to Bobby Slowik). Achane's 12 scores in 2024 aligned with his 12.7 xTD, but he was over his head by quite a bit last season (12 TDs, 7.2 xTD). After 12 carries inside the 5 yard line in 2024, he was limited to three in 2025 and he's now scored on just one of six career attempts from the 1 yard line. Achane trails only Christian McCaffrey in receiving touchdowns (13) since entering the league and that's a number that's also in jeopardy with McDaniel out and Willis in.Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers2025 TDs: 6 2026Projected TDs: 4This feels like a bold one after Kraft scored six touchdowns in seven full games last season, but similar to Goedert, his scoring pace was unsustainable. Kraft scored all three times in which he was targeted while within 3 yards of the end zone and bizarrely required exactly 18 yards of RAC on his other three touchdowns. He handled only two end zone targets after totaling three during his first two pro campaigns. Kraft finished 2025 eighth among tight ends in touchdowns but 40th in expected TDs (1.8). Kraft also blew his expected TD total out of the water in 2024 (seven TDs, 2.8 xTD), but history suggests we shouldn't count on that moving forward.James Cook III, RB, Buffalo Bills 2025 TDs: 142026 Projected TDs: 13Cook sits third in the NFL with 32 touchdowns over the last two seasons and, while I'm projecting only a slight dip for 2026, let me remind you that, over the past decade, 53 out of 55 players who scored 14-plus touchdowns in a season scored fewer the following season -- with an average dip of 8.0 scores. Cook was well above his 10.1 xTD last season and ranked eighth among backs with 14 carries inside the 5. Expect a slight dip.Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills 2025 TDs: 142026 Projected TDs: 12It's bold to predict both of Buffalo's "goal line backs" to see a dip, but we're following history here. Last season, Allen joined Jalen Hurts as the only quarterbacks in league history to score 12-plus rushing TDs in three different seasons. His expected TD total was 10.7 (he led all QBs in the category for the first time in his career) and he scored on nine of 11 carries (82%) from within 2 yards of the opponent's end zone, which is a bit ahead of his prior conversion rate (73%) on those attempts. Allen has never finished a season lower than second among QBs in carries inside the 5, so even with a drop, he's likely to push for double digits again in 2026.Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns2025 TDs: 72026 Projected TDs: 4One of the surprise breakout players of 2025, then third-round rookie Fannin found the end zone on seven of his 79 touches. He was limited to only three end zone targets and a 3.3 xTD on pass plays, both of which ranked 20th or lower among tight ends, though he did add a touchdown on a carry from the opponent's 1 yard line (his lone attempt inside the 10). Fannin will need a better Cleveland offense (far from a guarantee) in order to overcome inevitable touchdown regression to the mean.RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos 2025 TDs: 122026 Projected TDs: 6Despite playing a complementary role to J.K. Dobbins throughout most of last season, Harvey finished 10th among backs with 12 touchdowns. That didn't quite align with his usage, as he ranked 27th in touches (193), 29th in yardage (896), 29th in carries inside the 5 (seven) and 19th in expected TDs (8.1). Harvey scored on five of nine carries within 5 yards of the end zone (3.5 xTD) and five of seven targets while within 10 yards of the goal line (2.0 xTD). Harvey's usage suggests he'd see a scoring dip even if he wasn't dealing with a crowded Denver backfield.TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots2025 TDs: 102026 Projected TDs: 8Henderson scored 10 touchdowns last season, though five came during the three games Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined. The then-rookie was limited to six carries inside the 5 on the season and his expected TD total of 7.0 ranked 26th among backs. During the 14 regular season games the two played together, Stevenson handled 10 carries inside the 5 and two end zone targets, compared to four and zero, respectively, for Henderson. The smaller back of the two, Henderson likely faces an uphill battle to earn lead goal line duties in 2026.Jauan Jennings, WR, Minnesota Vikings2025 TDs: 92026 Projected TDs: 3After scoring 13 touchdowns during his first 60 regular season games (four seasons), Jennings leapt to nine scores in 15 games in 2025. He was limited to eight end zone targets (31st among receivers) and a 6.6 xTD (14th), but finished sixth in touchdowns. Jennings would have been on this list even if he remained in San Francisco, but the move to Minnesota further hurts his cause. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson ahead of him in target priority and dual-threat Kyler Murray under center, Jennings is a good bet for a big dropoff.Travis Etienne Jr., RB, New Orleans Saints2025 TDs: 132026 Projected TDs: 8Etienne's scoring has been all over the map, as he went from five touchdowns as a rookie to 12 in 2023 to two in 2024 to 13 in 2025. Interestingly, Etienne actually underachieved in the touchdown department as a rusher last season (seven TDs, 8.3 xTD, 11 carries inside the 5), but significantly overachieved as a pass catcher (six TDs, 2.3 xTD, zero end zone targets). The latter was a surprise after he totaled one receiving touchdown during his first three pro seasons. Now with the Saints, Etienne will remain a lead back, but a return to earth in scoring is probable.Others: Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams; Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers; Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens; Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
