EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsFrom 2015 to 2025, the Houston Astros made the playoffs nine times, captured seven American League West titles, won two World Series, reached two additional World Series, lost twice in Game 7 of the ALCS and won more games than any team except the Los Angeles Dodgers.Some call it a dynasty; some believe you need to win back-to-back championships to earn that label. No matter what the description, it has been a decade of astounding success -- even after the franchise's sign-stealing scandal.When Jose Altuve recently landed on the injured list because of an oblique strain -- the latest in an interminable string of injuries over the past two seasons -- it felt like a symbolic denouement. A loss Wednesday dropped the Astros to 20-31, the most games under .500 they've been since the end of the 2014 season. They're tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the second-most runs allowed in the majors; only the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies have a worse record.If the losing continues -- and there won't be any tears shed from baseball fans across the country if that happens -- the Astros will face some difficult choices at the trade deadline. The front office will have three options: stay the course, do a soft rebuild or tear it down to the studs.Let's consider what each of those might look like.Option 1: Stay the courseThe theory here is that the Astros have been snakebit the past two seasons. Last year, when they lost a tiebreaker for the final wild card, the key injury was to Yordan Alvarez, who missed more than 100 games. A healthy Alvarez alone would have meant a playoff spot and maybe another division title (Houston finished three games behind Seattle in the AL West).This year began with closer Josh Hader on the IL (he has yet to return). Since then, the injured include staff ace Hunter Brown after two starts and Cristian Javier after just three starts; shortstop Jeremy Pena for more than a month; Carlos Correa for the season after tearing a tendon in his left ankle in early May; now Altuve will miss a chunk of the schedule.That's just the stars. Mike Burrows has been the only starting pitcher not to miss a turn -- and he has a 5.72 ERA.So, maybe it's one of those seasons. All of the players above are under contract beyond this season, so that's why you stay the course and keep everyone for 2027. Given the state of the AL West, the Astros still have time to turn things around. Pena is back. Hader has already made five rehab appearances, and Brown is supposed to begin his rehab assignment this weekend. Ronel Blanco could return to the rotation after the All-Star break. You wouldn't bet on the Astros getting back in the race -- the pitching is terrible and even the offense, after an excellent first month, has been slumping lately -- but you also never want to bury a winning organization too soon.The only key upcoming free agents are relievers Bryan Abreu, who has been inexplicably awful this year, and Steven Okert and injured starter Lance McCullers Jr., so given the minimal trade value there, it might make sense to bring the roster for 2027, use McCullers' salary for a healthier pitcher and make another run at it.Case study: 2012-13 PhilliesFrom 2007 to 2011, the Phillies won five consecutive NL East titles, winning the World Series in 2008. The 2011 club was the best of those teams, winning 102 games thanks to a stellar rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, but lost in the NLDS when Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals outdueled Halladay 1-0 in Game 5, a game that ended with slugger Ryan Howard rupturing his left Achilles tendon as he made the final out.In 2012, the Phillies fell to .500. Halladay hurt his shoulder. Howard missed half the season and was terrible. Seven of the eight lineup regulars were in their 30s. The Phillies ran it back for 2013. Halladay's shoulder was shot. Howard got hurt again. The farm system lacked talent. The Phillies finished 73-89. It was over, but the Phillies didn't trade Jimmy Rollins until after the 2014 season and Chase Utley and Hamels until the 2015 trade deadline, getting minimal returns. They didn't make the playoffs again until 2022.Lesson: The Astros aren't as old as the Phillies were, but Altuve will be 37 next year and Christian Walker will be 36. Correa will be 32 with bad ankles. Alvarez will be entering his age-30 season and even Pena will be turning 29. The key players are getting old or older -- and, similar to the Phillies, the next generation hasn't stepped up. Though the Phillies kept banking on Halladay getting healthy, it didn't happen -- and then Lee got hurt as well. The result was a decade of losing. Wait too long to begin rebuilding and it can be a disaster.Option 2: A soft rebuildThis begins with admitting the 2026 season is likely a lost cause -- too many injuries, too many holes on the pitching staff, an offense that suddenly looks thin behind Alvarez, Walker and Pena. This wasn't a playoff team in 2025 and won't be in 2026, so why would the same roster do better in 2027?Understand as well: Kiley McDaniel ranked Houston's farm system 29th among the 30 teams in his preseason rankings. Cam Smith, the headline addition in the Kyle Tucker trade, wasn't part of that ranking, but he's supposed to be a foundational young player, and he's struggling at the plate once again. The organization pumped out pitching prospects for years but hasn't had the same success since Brown joined the rotation in 2023.There needs to be a talent realignment, with a need to acquire some young players because of the state of the farm system. Owner Jim Crane went through a full-scale tank when he first bought the team and hired Jeff Luhnow as general manager, but a soft rebuild wouldn't be as harsh and perhaps returns the Astros to contention more quickly than the rebuild in the 2010s.This means trading some key players -- but not all. Among the possibilities:Walker. He's signed through 2027, making $20 million this year and next. He's having a good rebound season after struggling in 2025. Several teams could use an upgrade at first base or DH -- the Mariners, as one example, are desperate for a right-handed hitter.Hader. He's making $19 million per season through 2028 but given how many playoff contenders have late-game bullpen issues (the Yankees, Cubs, Blue Jays and Pirates are among the fits), Hader could be in high demand if he shows he's healthy and pitching at his usual elite level.Pena. Seems not that long ago that he was a rookie winning the 2022 ALCS and World Series MVP, but Pena heads to free agency after 2027. Given that he'll be entering his age-30 season in 2028, combined with Crane's hesitance to give out contracts longer than five years, trading him and getting some prospects in return makes sense. The Red Sox, Rays and Brewers could use a shortstop upgrade.Isaac Paredes. He's also under team control through 2027 and is a year younger than Pena. Paredes is playing third base because Correa is injured, but there isn't really room for Paredes, Correa and Walker anyway, especially with Alvarez and Altuve needing to be the DH. The Phillies, Reds and Red Sox would all be potential trade partners.The Astros don't have to trade all four of these guys, but if you keep everyone and play out the 2027 season, you risk losing all of them in free agency (and who knows if free agent compensation will be in a new collective bargaining agreement).Case study: 2021 CubsThe post-2016 Cubs never regained the magic of that World Series run, and by 2021, it was clear they had to make some changes. They had already non-tendered Kyle Schwarber after the 2020 season -- not a good decision, as it turned out -- and traded Yu Darvish, who returned Owen Caissie, and he eventually brought back Edward Cabrera. After a big slump in July, the club traded Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson. Not all the deals worked out, but Baez brought back Pete Crow-Armstrong, reliever Andrew Chafin returned current closer Daniel Palencia and outfield prospect Kevin Alcantara came over in the Rizzo trade.The Cubs didn't clean house, though. They kept Ian Happ and Willson Contreras, who eventually left as a free agent. With the new payroll flexibility, they signed Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman in the offseason and then Dansby Swanson before the 2023 season. Though the Cubs fell to 74-88 in 2022, they were 83-79 in 2023 and 2024 -- arguably falling short of expectations both seasons -- before returning to the playoffs in 2025.Lesson: Don't be afraid to trade away key players who were once part of a championship team. Several of the players listed above for the Astros also have more value than the Cubs' trio of Rizzo, Baez and Bryant did because those three were all heading to free agency while the Astros players have more years of team control.Option 3: Tear it all downThis is probably the least likely of the three options. Sources told Buster Olney that they feel Crane, who is 72 years old, is unwilling to go through years of another major rebuilding project. A full teardown probably makes the most sense, however, given the age of some of the key players and the state of the farm system. In this scenario, the Astros would keep Altuve, who is signed through 2029 and should remain an Astro for life, plus Correa is untradable because of his injury and contract.But everyone else? Make 'em available.That would mean the two blockbuster headliners: Alvarez and Brown, who are both under team control through 2028. With 2026 looking like a lost season, and the uncertainty of the labor situation looming over the 2027 season, the best road to long-term success for the franchise might mean extracting maximum value for both now.Alvarez has a comparable in Juan Soto, who had two-plus seasons left of team control, just like Alvarez, when the Nationals traded him to the Padres in 2022. That trade returned James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and flame-throwing pitching prospect Jarlin Susana. Gore was then traded this past offseason to the Rangers for five prospects. Alvarez's $26.8 million salary might scare off some teams that could use his bat, such as the Pirates or Brewers, but that's a bargain for one of the game's premier hitters.Brown would likewise bring a massive return because a pitcher of his ability -- he was third in the AL Cy Young voting in 2025 -- and contract status is rarely available. David Price had one-plus years of control, as opposed to the two-plus for Brown, when the Tampa Bay Rays traded him to the Detroit Tigers in 2014. The Rays got Willy Adames (one of the top shortstop prospects in the game at the time) and Drew Smyly in the deal and got value out of them. With the Rays being the Rays, they later turned those two into Mike Zunino, Ryan Yarbrough and Drew Rasmussen. Given his extra year of team control, Brown would bring a bigger return than Price.The Cubs need an ace. The Dodgers have one of the best farm systems and are once again facing a slew of rotation injuries. The Tigers will need a replacement for Tarik Skubal. The Rays are leading the AL East, and Brown could turn them into a World Series team. The list of suitors would be long.Trading Alvarez and Brown would be painful in the short term, but it would reignite the franchise for the future rather than suffering through a Phillies-like long decline.Case study: 2010 AstrosThe Astros lost 106, 107 and 111 games from 2011 to 2013 in Crane's first three years as owner. It was easier to make that decision at the time because the Astros had gone 74-88 in 2009 and 76-86 in 2010. Crane and Luhnow, who was hired after the 2011 season, didn't tear the team down so much as simply not compete for a period of years.There wasn't much talent left anyway after Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt had been traded away at the 2010 deadline. The tanking resulted in high draft picks: Correa, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. After building up the farm system, Luhnow made great trades for Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke, not giving up much in return. He acquired Alvarez from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields. Altuve and George Springer, already in the organization, turned into big stars. Framber Valdez came out of Venezuela.Lesson: Tearing it down can work. The Astros nailed all aspects of rebuilding: draft picks, trades and player development. It required patience and discipline. When Luhnow was fired after the sign-stealing scandal, new general manager James Click kept up the winning, but parted ways with the Astros after the 2022 World Series title. Crane became more involved and the discipline has been lost, with the Astros making free agent signings or trades that Luhnow never would have made -- older position players such as Jose Abreu, Walker and Correa, or a five-year, $95 million contract for a reliever, even an elite one. They kept Bregman until his free agency, but traded Tucker before he reached his (they likely would have made the playoffs with him last year).That's kind of the major issue with the organization: No consistent philosophy. The Astros are caught in the middle, standing on the cliff. Which direction will they go?
