EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIn letters sent Sunday, the NFL asked prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket to refrain from offering trades on events that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance, including what announcers say during broadcasts, which celebrities attend games and the upcoming draft.The NFL said it wanted to protect game participants from "unfair and unwanted allegations" tied to gambling and prediction markets and objected to four types of offerings: those that can be easily manipulated by a single person such as missed field goals, those that are knowable in advance such as draft picks, player signings and coach firings, anything related to officiating and "inherently objectionable" topics such as player injuries and fan safety.Most of the NFL's objections in the letter are similar to what it asks traditional sportsbooks to prohibit, but the league also raised concerns about trading on broadcaster mention markets and celebrity attendance, two propositions not usually offered by sportsbooks. Millions of dollars were traded on Kalshi on what announcers said and which celebrities appeared at the Super Bowl."Some people are going to have that information ... that they can then share," NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told ESPN. "We're trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space."Miller said the letter follows months of conversations between the NFL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator that oversees prediction markets. The CFTC and Major League Baseball recently agreed to share information and meet regularly to discuss types of markets thought to be vulnerable to manipulation. The NFL does not have a formal agreement with the CFTC, according to Miller, but does believe the regulator values the league's insights.The CFTC, under new chair Michael Selig, has been more aggressive on the types of markets allowed. Selig told ESPN he believes trading on sports outcomes has always been legal, but previous administrations would not allow it. With sports now part of the prediction market ecosystem, Selig says that it is essential for the agency to work with the leagues to understand what can be manipulated."If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course we'll evaluate the risks there," he said. "But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues."A bipartisan Senate bill introduced last week seeks to ban prediction markets from allowing transactions that mimic sports betting. Prediction markets also face legal battles with state regulators, who argue the companies are offering illegal gambling.Miller said the NFL has not yet engaged with any of the new proposed legislation, and the league's position remains that prediction markets need more guardrails before it would consider a partnership."We want to make sure that whatever is being done in this space, we can do our best to protect the integrity of the sport," he said.MLB, the NHL, UFC and MLS have formed partnerships with prediction markets.
