Editor's note: A version of this column is in the February issue of Bicycle Retailer & Industry News.

For the past twenty-or-so years, suppliers pushed dealers to order most of their season's bicycle inventory preseason. "Better order it preseason," reps told dealers, "or you won't be able to get any in-season." And for twenty years, with only two exceptions (the Great Recession of 2009 and the anomalous 2019), this has been a lie.

Truth was, suppliers not only had plenty of inventory, they had so much of it they started discounting as early as March, and kept that inventory on discount throughout the selling season. Dealers, many of whom had a year's worth of product already sitting in boxes, got caught in the middle. Forced to match supplier-advertised discounts, their margins suffered. Sometimes, but not always, price adjustments were offered. But overall, bikes and much of the equipment offering were on discount until supplies finally ran out. And then the process started over again for the next year.

In this space last month, I wrote about how retailers are beginning to inventory fewer bikes in-store, and how suppliers are starting to deemphasize preseason orders. Which leaves an unanswered question: will 2026 be the year when the over-purchase-and-discount madness finally stops?

A lesson learned can be unlearned

Consumers may begin to unlearn the lesson we've taught them over the past two decades: just wait and prices will come down.

Of course I'm not privy to suppliers' ordering plans. But the post-COVID years have not been kind to their inventory levels. Left with choking amounts of product, major suppliers have enacted increasingly draconian discounts in an attempt to move inventory at any price.

I suspect it's not a situation they have much appetite for repeating again this year. Or any other.

If I'm right, suppliers have ordered less inventory for 2026, with the anticipation of being able to sell it at full price, and without having to resort to the fire-sale tactics that have characterized the past several years. Or the previous 20.

This is good news for retailers and suppliers alike. New product comes into the market, prices remain firm throughout the selling season, and any stragglers get closed out post-season. Both parties make better margins and, needless to say, higher profits.

Not only that, but consumers may begin to unlearn the lesson we've taught them over the past two decades: just wait and prices will come down. Now, this is not a one-time lesson. It was acquired over years of in-season discounting and it will only be unlearned over a similar period. But in time, the new lesson will stick. Best of all, everyone will benefit, including consumers, who will see the benefits in increased product diversity and innovation. It's sort of a win-win-win, where everyone ultimately comes out ahead.

Of course, all that is predicated on the notion that suppliers have trimmed their factory orders for 2026. Absent that, all bets are off. In the meantime, all we can do is settle in and wait.