Giannis Antetokounmpo is synonymous with the Milwaukee Bucks. But the writing is on the wall in increasingly large font that his time with the Bucks could be ending. In addition, Giannis is dealing with a calf injury that has him sidelined "indefinitely," which practically translates to the four-to-six-week range that could have him out until March.
If Giannis were to be traded by this season's NBA trade deadline on Feb. 5, what would it mean for fantasy squads? And what are the best and worst cases of trade destinations from a fantasy perspective?
If Giannis is on your team, would a trade change his fantasy value? And if Giannis isn't on your fantasy squad, should you trade for him?
Let's explore.
How fantasy managers should anticipate a Giannis trade
Giannis is the most traded player in fantasy hoops over the past week, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Michael Porter Jr., Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
This is especially interesting considering Giannis' injury status. Based on his uncertain prognosis, it's possible Giannis doesn't even play again before the fantasy playoffs in March.
On the other hand, last season's major in-season trade involved Jimmy Butler III, who was also nursing an injury before he was traded to Golden State, but Butler returned to the court immediately after the trade. Given the popularity of Giannis in fantasy trades, perhaps there is some belief that he will be moved from Milwaukee and that he might be able to return to action sooner.
Another factor in his fantasy trade popularity could be his currently depressed value. Giannis is a perennial top-five producer in the fantasy rankings, but due to the injury and trade speculation his fantasy value is as low as it has been.
So, teams willing to speculate on Giannis even given the uncertainty might agree to split the difference between Giannis' typical top-five ranking and his current top-40 ranking in deals. And fantasy managers with Giannis might be worried enough about his situation to make deals happen.
If Giannis is traded, what are the most likely destinations? Bobby Marks wrote a detailed breakdown of the potential trade market for him, featuring what all 29 teams could offer and the 11 teams that could make the best offers.
Best-case scenario
From a fantasy hoops perspective, the best of the article's 11 trade destinations for Giannis would likely be the Warriors. This is an ironic twist because last season the Warriors were in this space as the best potential landing spot for Butler as well. After Butler was traded there, he was a perfect fit from an NBA and a fantasy perspective.
But Butler recently tore an ACL and is out for the season. The Warriors still have veterans Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as their core and therefore need to win now.
The article didn't include a specific proposed trade package but mentions the deal would have to include Butler and his $54 million salary. It also suggests the Warriors would likely trade Jonathan Kuminga and perhaps Brandin Podziemski, both talented young players who could become players to build around for the would-be rebuilding Bucks and up to four first-round picks. To make the salaries match, the Bucks would have to include either Bobby Portis or Kyle Kuzma.
This would be the perfect fantasy landing spot for Giannis because we would see him play next to the greatest shooter in NBA history. No player in the league collapses defenses like Giannis, and no player creates and takes advantage of space more than Curry. Plus, Curry is one of the best at moving without the ball and shooting off the pass.
Part of the reason Giannis and Damian Lillard never seemed to maximize their synergy is because Lillard liked to create his shot off the dribble and never seemed to get fully comfortable with Giannis creating his shots for him. The entire Warriors offense, including much of Curry's synergy with Green, has been predicated on Green finding Curry for spot-up jumpers. It would be even more lethal with Giannis as the one collapsing the defense and creating even better looks.
With Giannis and Curry on the same team, opponents would have no defensive strategy to cover that one-two punch. Outside of Curry and previously Butler, the Warriors don't have any other high-usage shot creators. On the Warriors, Giannis would be able to maintain his maximal usage but against much softer defensive coverage. This could result in increases in volume and efficiency for Giannis and even more 3-point production from Curry and the other Warriors.
Worst-case scenario
From a fantasy hoops perspective, the worst-case scenario would be Giannis being traded to a contending team with multiple high-usage shot creators who would take the ball out of his hands or an equal opportunity offense where Giannis can't be featured to the same extent.
Of the teams deemed best situated to deal for Giannis, the Houston Rockets (assuming they kept Durant and Alperen Sengun), the New York Knicks (if, as the article mentions, they swap Giannis for Towns straight up), the Oklahoma City Thunder (next to Gilgeous-Alexander and potentially Jalen Williams and/or Chet Holmgren) and the San Antonio Spurs (next to Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox) are all teams that would become championship favorites with Giannis but that would depress his fantasy value.
And adding Giannis to any of those teams would just as likely attenuate the fantasy values of the other star players on those teams.
What to do
If Giannis is on your fantasy team
Explore his trade value in your leagues. If you can get a top 10 to 15 player in value in return you should strongly consider dealing him to avoid the uncertainty of the injury and unknown potential trade destination.
Even if you can only get top 20 to 25 value, it could be worth it, particularly because the injury could keep him sidelined for much of the remainder of the fantasy season.
If Giannis isn't on your fantasy team
Explore how much the manager with Giannis wants for him. The ideal profile of a team that should trade for him is a team already near the top of a league that is likely to make the playoffs, even if Giannis doesn't play until the fantasy playoffs.
For a team like this, dealing for Giannis now at roughly top-25 player value could result in them adding a top-five caliber player just in time for their playoffs run. If you deal for Giannis, you know you're taking a risk, so use your mouthpiece to try to make the deal for as little as possible.
