What are Vincius Jnior's options as his Real Madrid contract runs down?

One goal, two assists, seven chances created and 19 progressive carries. Vincius Jnior's performance in Real Madrid's 6-1 Champions League win over AS Monaco was a reminder that on his day -- as coach lvaro Arbeloa said afterwards -- "he's the most dangerous player out there."

It's a sight we've seen far too infrequently this season. Vincius went into Tuesday's game at the Bernabu having scored just one goal in his previous 19 games. Admittedly, that goal was outstanding -- a solo run and finish in the Supercopa final against Barcelona -- but it was an outlier in a dry spell stretching back to early October.

The Brazil international has, by his own high standards, had a desperately underwhelming campaign. He's contributed five goals and five assists in 20 LaLiga matches. Under former coach Xabi Alonso, he lost his status as an automatic starter, benched four times despite being fit and available.

His on-field tantrum at being substituted in October's Clsico was the beginning of the end for Alonso, precipitating the team's dip in form that climaxed with the coach's departure last week. Off the pitch, there's been growing speculation about Vincius' long-term future, with his contract expiry date -- June 30, 2027 -- getting closer all the time.

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All those issues combined to tip Madrid's fans over the edge on Saturday; Vincius was on the receiving end of the loudest whistles from a Bernabu crowd frustrated by Alonso's departure, and successive losses in two competitions, the Supercopa and the Copa del Rey.

"The last few days have been very difficult for me," Vincius admitted on Tuesday. "Because of the whistles, and because of everything that's been said. I'm always in the spotlight, and I don't want to be there for things that happen off the pitch, I want to be there for what I do on the pitch."

Sources told ESPN on Friday that the implications of Alonso leaving for Vincius' contract renewal were significant. The pair's relationship had been strained since last summer, and one source said the chances of a new deal being agreed were "non-existent" while Alonso stayed in the job.

Even as Alonso had tried to build bridges in recent weeks, the connection between the two was cordial at best. Vincius was one of a handful of players not to bid farewell to the coach on social media.

Unlike Alonso, Arbeloa has already been effusive in his praise. "When the Bernabu is with him, he's unstoppable," Arbeloa said after Vincius' MVP display against Monaco. "If we want to fight for trophies, we need him... Vini needs to feel loved. He's very emotional. He needs to feel that affection."

A day earlier, Arbeloa had set out his approach to managing Vincius, in stark contrast to his predecessor: "Vincius will always be on the pitch when he's available," he said.

Still, Alonso was just one limiting factor in the calculus surrounding Vincius' contract renewal. There has been no progress in talks between the player and the club since last May, and sources have told ESPN that the player's camp would be relaxed about leaving the situation unresolved until after the 2026 World Cup.

That means that one of the world's top players -- a Ballon d'Or runner-up in 2024, named FIFA's The Best Men's Player that same year -- would enter the final 12 months of his contract, just months away from being able to negotiate a lucrative free transfer.

But how likely is that outcome, and what options are on the table for Vincius?

OPTION 1: Stay at Real Madrid and sign a new deal?

Vincius genuinely loves playing for Real Madrid. His camp are well aware of the sporting and commercial advantages that accompany playing for one of the world's biggest clubs. He would like to stay, if an acceptable deal could be struck.

However, he has a net wage of around 17 million per year. Both he and his representatives believe he deserves more -- especially given the sums now earned by teammate Kylian Mbapp, whose huge signing-on bonuses when he joined in 2024 mean his annual salary -- which would be on a par with Vincius, after the latter earned a bonus himself for being named the FIFA The Best award in 2024 -- is effectively double that.

In May 2025, when the parties last sat down for talks, sources told ESPN that Madrid's offer to Vincius was 20 million per year. The player's camp viewed that increase as insufficient and asked for an additional 10 million in bonuses to make a total package of 30 million per year.

The club were not willing to meet those demands, and negotiations have not resumed since then, with some Madrid executives unhappy at how talks were handled on Vincius' side. However, sources close to the player have told ESPN that -- post-Alonso -- they would now not be surprised if the club reached out to restart discussions in the coming weeks.

Vincius' representatives believe Madrid's room to manoeuvre on the 20 million basic offer is limited, given their overall spend on the squad's wages, but bonuses might be a way of reaching a compromise.

OPTION 2: Remain at Real Madrid and run down his contract?

What's to stop Vincius taking a look at his strike partner Mbapp -- who left Paris Saint-Germain on a personally lucrative free transfer in 2024, the aftermath of which is still subject to legal action in France -- and thinking he can do the same.

If Vincius were to hold out and successfully wind down his contract, he would be able to leave Madrid on a free transfer in June 2027. He would put himself in an enviable position: one of the world's best players, about to turn 27 years old, who has already been decisive in delivering two Champions League titles, and is now able to choose his own destiny and make a small fortune in the process.

The question is: can you really imagine Madrid, and president Florentino Prez, allowing that scenario to play out? Past contract disputes with their biggest stars -- think Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos -- have ended one way: on the club's terms.

The club, conscious of the need to wrap up a deal sooner rather than later, first reached out to Vincius to discuss a new deal in February last season. Normal practice would have been to wait until there were two years left on his contract; recognising his importance, Madrid wanted to reach an agreement earlier than that.

Their attempt was ultimately unsuccessful -- the gap between the two parties' expectations was too wide -- but it's a sign of just how keen Madrid were to avoid exactly this potential outcome, of the balance of power tipping in the player's direction, and Vincius running down his contract.

If the noise around Vincius' contractual situation -- from both the media and the fans -- is already uncomfortable, just how frenzied will it be by next summer, or even going into 2026-27?

The whistles from the Bernabu crowd on Saturday might be replicated every week if the fans felt the forward was orchestrating his departure, without leaving a commensurate transfer fee on the club's balance sheet.

The player's representatives must know there's a real possibility that if the club believed the player had leaving on a free in mind, they would stop at nothing to prevent losing such a valuable player by forcing through a transfer late in the summer of 2026.

After all, Madrid have repeatedly benefitted in recent seasons from being on the other end of the equation, with top players arriving on a free. They know the playbook; they wrote it. Even if Vincius wanted to see out his contract, Madrid would do everything possible -- using all of president Perez's power and influence -- to prevent that from happening.

OPTION 3: Join PSG, the Premier League, or Saudi Arabia?

When the idea of Vincius leaving Madrid was first raised as a serious possibility, his suitor wasn't an English giant like Manchester City or Chelsea, or a European superclub like PSG. It was the Saudi Pro League.

ESPN first reported in August 2024 that the Saudis had made an approach for Vinicius, and that the player's camp were considering the proposal, rather than rejecting it out of hand. The figures being talked about were astronomical: an annual salary of up to 350 million.

Madrid, who had just seen Vincius be decisive in the 2024 Champions League final and viewed him as the Ballon d'Or elect, were not keen for him to leave, and pointed to his 1 billion release clause.

Later, in January 2025, ESPN reported that the Saudi interest remained, with a representative for the Saudi Public Investment Fund having contacted Vincius' camp a month earlier to maintain communication.

However, by April, those early contacts had not been followed up. The Saudi lead in those talks, Saad Al Lazeez, was no longer with the SPL, and in the meantime, Madrid had initiated talks over a renewal.

Sources told ESPN that the Saudi option was not Vincius' preference, given the sporting considerations, and that a switch to the SPL was increasingly unlikely.

If the Saudis are discounted, the only clubs able to meet Vincius' salary demand and sporting ambitions would be a top Premier League club or PSG.

The player's stock is high in England, having excelled against clubs like City and Liverpool in the Champions League in high-profile games in recent seasons.

However, when Vincius was linked with Chelsea earlier this month, sources close to the player told ESPN that there had been no contact with the London club.

The dramatic events at the Bernabu over the last week -- with Alonso unceremoniously ejected after seven months in charge -- have radically altered Vincius's situation.

Marginalised under Alonso, he is now being effusively praised by his successor. "We just have to look after him and make sure he's happy," Arbeloa said this week. "We all know that when he's happy, he's incredible."