The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is here, and we have four great matchups. The wild-card round featured three upsets, including wins for both No. 6 seeds (the 49ers and Bills), marking the first time since 2020 that multiple teams seeded No. 6 or lower advanced to the divisional round.
Could we see more surprise wins this weekend? I provided keys to victory -- one offensive and one defensive -- for all four underdogs in the divisional round. That includes three road teams in the Bills, 49ers and Texans, along with the Bears, who have a tough matchup in Chicago against the Rams. These winning blueprints focus on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Then, I picked out one X factor player who could have the biggest impact for each team.
Let's look at how all four underdogs can win their divisional round matchups, starting with the Bills vs. the Broncos. (ESPN's Football Power Index and DraftKings Sportsbook provided odds for each game.)
Jump to a team:
BUF | CHI | HOU | SF
How the Buffalo Bills can upset the Denver Broncos
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.6%
Game line: DEN -1.5
Offensive key to victory: Have answers for man coverage
The Broncos played man coverage (Cover 1, two-man, zero-man) on a league-high 60.8% of opponent dropbacks this season. And Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will bring man pressure, as the Broncos' blitz rate of 31.3% was the seventh highest in 2025. So, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady must dial up his man-coverage beaters, while getting the ball out of quarterback Josh Allen's hands at an accelerated rate.
This won't be Allen's first test against heavy man coverage this season, as he faced Cleveland, Houston and Atlanta. What does the tape tell us there?
Buffalo can move the sticks on quick, three-step throws (unders, crossers, screens) to slot receiver Khalil Shakir. Brady can also use his pick/rub concepts to free up receivers and tight ends on wheel routes and out-breakers. Plus, he can scheme up shot plays and vertical one-on-ones to Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman on the perimeter.
Defensive key to victory: Late movement and zone discipline
We know what the Bills are from a defensive perspective. They play heavy two-high coverage (52.9% of opponent dropbacks) with late movement to change the picture. Buffalo will rotate its safeties at the snap and play with excellent zone discipline and vision to jam up throwing lanes. And I don't think the Bills will alter their defensive identity against Denver quarterback Bo Nix.
Against zone coverage this season, Nix completed 64.5% of his throws with seven interceptions. That amounted to a 49.4 QBR compared with an 82.6 QBR against man. This is a game where the Bills can get to depth at the second level, thus squeezing the middle-of-the-field windows and having safeties over the top to break on passes. It's fundamental football for Buffalo, but that should be enough against coach Sean Payton's in-breaking concepts.
The impact Bills X factor: Safety Cole Bishop closed the door on the Jaguars with a game-sealing interception on quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the wild-card matchup. On Saturday, he will be tasked with staying on top of vertical routes in the deep half, spinning down to cut in-breakers and inserting himself into the run front. Bishop had three interceptions in the regular season.
How the San Francisco 49ers can upset the Seattle Seahawks
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI prediction: SEA, 59.6%
Game line: SEA -7
Offensive key to victory: Create passing windows against Cover 2
The Seahawks' defense plays with incredible team pursuit. It's a physical unit, one that allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per carry this season. The 49ers, meanwhile, can lack efficiency when running the ball with Christian McCaffrey. So, for some answers, I think we need to focus on coach Kyle Shanahan's passing attack -- which will be without tight end George Kittle (torn Achilles).
In Week 18 when San Francisco faced Seattle, quarterback Brock Purdy had just one completion of 20 or more yards, and he saw a bunch of two-deep zone from Seattle. He completed 12 of 16 passes versus zone but for only 5.8 yards per attempt. The Seahawks were willing to give up underneath throws since they made the easy tackles.
This is where Shanahan can now open up windows for Purdy, using play-action on early downs to get Seattle's linebackers and safeties out of position. Shanahan will have to define the correct targets and get Purdy in rhythm to create some chunk plays. Jauan Jennings and Demarcus Robinson can work the intermediate levels; tight end Jake Tonges can stretch the seams.
Defensive key to victory: Limit the Seahawks' run game on early downs
The 49ers and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh can expand the game plan in passing situations against Sam Darnold. They need to speed Darnold up on blitzes or cloud the looks, testing his decision-making in late downs. But to do that, the 49ers must first win on early downs against the Seahawks' zone run game.
In Week 18, Kenneth Walker III averaged 7.5 yards per carry on outside zone concepts, pressing the ball to the perimeter and finding creases to take off vertically. Zach Charbonnet added 7.4 yards per carry on inside zone plays, often bending the ball to daylight.
I don't see this as a scheme issue, as Saleh can gain numbers in the front when facing 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). Instead, this is about cutting off the ball on the edges, which San Francisco failed to do consistently in Week 18. The 49ers also need their cutback defenders to play more disciplined.
Bottom line? You can't give up 5.0 yards per carry on first down this time around.
The impact 49ers X factor: Tonges lacks the lower-body flexibility of Kittle, but he can run all the routes required for a tight end in Shanahan's offense. He caught 34 passes for five touchdowns in the regular season. After Kittle exited in the wild-card round against the Eagles, Tonges had only one catch for 14 yards, though. In Seattle, he will need to uncover on seams and crossers, while working the underneath zone voids as an outlet for Purdy.
How the Houston Texans can upset the New England Patriots
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
FPI prediction: NE, 52.0%
Game line: NE -3
Offensive key to victory: Create explosive plays on deep high-low reads
With the availability of Nico Collins (concussion) still uncertain at this point, the Texans will have to scheme more to create explosive plays. And if you watch the Houston tape, coordinator Nick Caley likes to create coverage voids on high-low reads for quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Here, the Texans can use Christian Kirk and rookie Jaylin Noel on the deep over routes to attack the outside one-third of the coverage. These are rhythm throws for Stroud that could lead to explosive opportunities, as we saw multiple times when he targeted Kirk against Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. Kirk finished with eight catches for 144 yards and a score. Caley can set Stroud's protection off play-action to make it go, as that would force some defenders to play underneath.
Defensive key to victory: Play man-free coverage
We'll see some two-deep zone from coach DeMeco Ryans' defense Sunday. But the Texans have played man-free coverage on 34% of opponent dropbacks this season (sixth most in the NFL), which could disrupt the timing for Pats quarterback Drake Maye.
Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, plus Jalen Pitre in the slot, can match up well against New England's wide receivers. And that's key given the amount of underneath throws (outs, in-breakers, pivots and crossers) in the Patriots' passing game.
The impact Texans X factor: Calen Bullock has the best range of any safety in the league, as he's able to track the ball from the deep middle of the field and squeeze boundary verticals in Cover 2. His ability to close the post is a key part of the Texans' scheme. Bullock had four interceptions in the regular season, and he took another one back for a touchdown against Pittsburgh.
How the Chicago Bears can upset the Los Angeles Rams
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI prediction: LAR, 60.7%
Game line: LAR -3.5
Offensive key to victory: Feature the pass game in 12 personnel
The Bears produced 21 completions of 20 or more yards out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) this season, tied for second most in the league. With this setup, coach Ben Johnson can get extra numbers in pass protection against Rams edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young. That would give quarterback Caleb Williams enough time for third-level throws or shot plays against an L.A. secondary that lacks high-end speed.
Plus, Chicago can use the alignment versatility of tight end Colston Loveland to get favorable matchups on the boundary against L.A.'s cornerbacks.
Defensive key to victory: Play two-man coverage on third down
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had the Bears in two-man coverage on 11.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, the sixth most in the league. I would bump that number up on third downs versus quarterback Matthew Stafford.
This would put the Bears in a position to rotate their safeties, capping the vertical routes to the strong side of the formation and using the boundary safety to break on intermediate throws. The two-man coverage should also close the Rams' preferred routes in middle of the field. And it would help the Bears limit free access off the ball for receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The impact Bears X factor: Rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III has caught 20 of 27 targets over his past four games. He can be a multi-level target, while also seeing the ball on screens or fly sweeps. With his open-field vision and sudden movement ability, Burden can create impact plays.
