NFL divisional round odds, early bets: Seahawks favored vs. 49ers, Rams over Bears

The NFL wild-card round certainly lived up to its name.

The Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks -- the top seeds in the AFC and the NFC, respectively -- will get in on the action this coming weekend in the divisional round after earning first-round byes.

In the AFC, the Broncos will face the visiting Buffalo Bills, who escaped a wild finish against the Jacksonville Jaguars that featured four touchdowns in a back-and-forth fourth quarter.

The Patriots shut down the Los Angeles Chargers, and New England will host the winner of Monday night's game between the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In the NFC, the Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers, who scored the final 13 points in their first-round outing with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles to pull out the win.

The Bears erased an 18-point deficit against the Green Bay Packers in their wild-card matchup, and Chicago will host the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams were able to rally past the Carolina Panthers thanks to a Matthew Stafford touchdown pass with 38 seconds left to advance.

Here's a look at the odds for every game in the divisional round, with initial reactions and bets from Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado and Seth Walder.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change. Game times/networks will be announced after Monday night's contest.

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(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks -7
Saturday, 4:30 or 8 p.m. ET (network TBD)

Money Line: Seahawks (-275); 49ers (+275)
Total: 45.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 3.7 with a 60.0% probability to win the game outright

Walder's First Bet: Total points UNDER 46.5 (-110)

It's not just because the Week 18 contest between these teams ended with a total of 16 points scored. I'm more focused on the fact that Sam Darnold has been a completely different quarterback from Week 11 on. In the season's first 10 weeks, Darnold led the league in QBR. From Weeks 11 to 18? He ranked 27th(!), ahead of only Geno Smith, Shedeur Sanders and Brady Cook. The 49ers will play plenty of nickel, even against heavy personnel, inviting Seattle to run. I expect the Seahawks will oblige and have a fair amount of success too. But having success with the run yields far fewer points than having success with the pass. And with the Seahawks' defense perfectly capable of slowing or shutting down the (George Kittle-less) 49ers, I'll happily take the under.
Last week: Packers-Bears over 45.5 (total points: 58)

Moody's First Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+137)

Smith-Njigba enters this rematch with confidence after being a focal point in Seattle's Week 18 win over San Francisco. Seattle is rested, playing at home and facing a 49ers defense could again be shorthanded, and Smith-Njigba has already shown he can produce against San Francisco's coverage. This sets up as another spot where the Seahawks lean on their top receiver, who averaged 9.6 targets and 105.5 receiving yards per game this season, in a high-stakes matchup against a division rival.

(6) Buffalo Bills -1.5 at (1) Denver Broncos

Saturday, 4:30 or 8 p.m. ET (network TBD)

Line movement: Opened Broncos -1.5

Money Line: Bills (-118); Broncos (-102)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Broncos by 0.3 with a 50% probability to win the game outright

Betting notes

• The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round last season, but that game was played in Buffalo.

• The Broncos are 3-9 against the spread as favorites this season.

(5) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at (2) Chicago Bears
Sunday, 3 or 6:30 p.m. ET (network TBD)

Money Line: Rams (-192); Bears (+160)
Total: 51.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 4.4 with a 62% probability to win the game outright

Bowen's First Bet: Total points OVER 51.5 (-110)

The Rams and the Bears feature top-10 scoring offenses, and I'm also betting on the playcallers in this matchup. Sean McVay and Ben Johnson will have answers in the call sheet, especially in the pass game, to create explosive plays. Take the over.
Last week: Bears +1.5 vs. Packers (Bears won 31-27)

Maldonado's First Bet: Total points OVER 51.5 (-110)