Leading up to the tip-off of the NBA season, all of us who play fantasy basketball set out to figure out what to expect from the players around the league. Generally, a look at last season's numbers can provide an idea, but that's only a rough estimate. Many factors, from age to roster changes and more, can alter expectations on a player by player basis.
So which players have exceeded expectations and surprised during the first half of the season? And which players have failed to live up to the standards most expected out of them?
Here are fantasy experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander and Jim McCormick with more.
Surprises
Kon Knueppel, SG, Charlotte Hornets: Knueppel stands out to me after the rookie went undrafted in many leagues. His playmaking and 3-point shooting have been impressive, and he rebounds well for his position. Knueppel has emerged as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate along with college teammate Cooper Flagg. He currently leads all rookies with 19.4 PPG and also tops the class in 3-pointers attempted and made, while shooting 47.9% from the field. With that production, Knueppel has given the Hornets legitimate flexibility as they evaluate their long-term backcourt alongside LaMelo Ball. -- Moody
Keyonte George, PG/SG, Utah Jazz: While I expected him to improve this season, I didn't foresee him making such a leap in both volume and efficiency. George is scoring almost a time-and-a-half his rate from last season (24.3 PPG vs. 16.8 PPG), and all of his counting stats are up across the board. But the most impressive improvement might be his efficiency, where he shot 39.1% from the field and 81.8% from the line last season but is up to 45.2 FG% and 90.2 FT% this season. He is on pace for career bests everywhere, and in a magical Year 3, he looks like an All-Star in waiting. -- Snellings
Collin Gillespie, PG, Phoenix Suns: College star Gillespie barely played during his first few NBA seasons. He certainly didn't look like he had any future as a fantasy asset. Look at him now. Undrafted in real life and in fantasy, Gillespie starts at point guard for one of the most surprising clubs, and he is among the top 50 fantasy scorers in points leagues and roto/categories formats, contributing assists, steals and 3-pointers. He averages more fantasy points per game than Ja Morant, Darius Garland and CJ McCollum. Yeah, it is surprising. -- Karabell
Kel'el Ware, C, Miami Heat: Keyonte George and Deni Avdija have emerged as All-Star candidates and merit recognition, but they had shown signs of such potential in prior seasons. My key surprise player is Ware. One of only eight players averaging at least 10 rebounds this season, Ware is 13th in total blocks and is shooting 43% from 3-point range as a true 7-footer. Already up to No. 21 on the Player Rater, expect even more growth from this second-year talent on an up-tempo Miami offense testing the bounds of pace. -- McCormick
Keyonte George, PG/SG, Utah Jazz: George was drafted somewhere in the early 100s in fantasy leagues and has been a standout in Utah, averaging career highs with 24.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.6 3-pointers. Additionally, the career 39% shooter has hit 45% of his shots from the field and a stellar 90% of his free throws, and has been healthy, playing in 34 games. Whether he was drafted or picked up off the waiver wire, George's fantasy managers got a steal. -- Alexander
Disappointments
Bam Adebayo, PF/C, Miami Heat: Adebayo has brought excellent value to fantasy managers for years, finishing as a top-25 fantasy scorer without the lofty ADP. Well, he isn't doing that this season, especially lately. Adebayo is averaging over five fewer fantasy points per game than last season, as his scoring, passing and shooting dip. Sandro Mamukelashvili, Luke Kornet, Kyshawn George and nearly 100 others rank better on the Player Rater. Few are dropping the useful Adebayo, but this is not what anyone expected with a top-30 draft pick. -- Karabell
Trae Young, PG, Washington Wizards: Young hasn't lived up to his average draft position due to declining efficiency, durability concerns and defensive limitations. A knee injury has limited him to just 10 games this season, and his offensive dominance has slipped. While he led the league in assists last year, it was partly driven by increased difficulty scoring on his own. Young's scoring average has declined for four straight seasons, and he's averaging just 19.3 PPG this year. With rule changes reducing his foul-drawing edge, both his ceiling and reliability have taken a hit. Perhaps a new start in Washington helps. -- Moody
The number of injuries to the elite options in the game: Four of the top 5 projected fantasy points producers this season have already spent extended time on the sidelines due to injury. Nikola Jokic is out now, and each of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Davis are still battling back from injury. While injuries are a part of the game, as a fantasy manager it is disappointing when my best players are on the shelf for extended periods of time. -- Snellings
Myles Turner, C, Milwaukee Bucks: Turner left Indiana for Milwaukee in order to "win now" and has been a disaster for his fantasy managers. Turner is shooting a career-low 41% from the floor and 75% from the line, averaging just 12.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.2 3-pointers. Managers who drafted him in the fourth round did not get the player they were counting on, while the Bucks are currently on the outside looking in for a playoff berth. -- Alexander
Bam Adebayo, PF/C, Miami Heat: Adebayo is enduring another down season in South Beach. His scoring efficiency has tanked, as he's sporting career lows -- by far -- in both field goal and true shooting percentages. Most alarming is how the lack of pick-and-roll actions and high-post touches have removed playmaking from his profile. I'm not sure if Ware's growth comes at Adebayo's expense, but there is some cause for concern. -- McCormick
