Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Sacramento Kings PG Russell Westbrook is among the top 25 fantasy options this season
Despite signing a one-year contract just a week before the season -- and coming off the bench for six games -- Westbrook is among the top 40 fantasy scorers, and he certainly is trending in the right direction statistically. The well-traveled future Hall of Famer is easily the fantasy points leader for the downtrodden Kings, who have missed star C/PF Domantas Sabonis (knee) for a month, and there seems no end in sight to the production.
Westbrook, who somehow remains available in nearly 15% of ESPN standard leagues, averages 14.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 7.9 APG as a starter, with solid steal and 3-pointer numbers, and he boasts double-digit assists in three of five December games. It is a classic case of proven player meeting opportunity. The 6-20 Kings do not win much, as injuries and poor roster construction have doomed them, and the future may be problematic, but we sure can't complain about Westbrook.
Fantasy managers should hope Westbrook remains with the Kings, because these minutes and numbers can be repeated for four more months. A trade to a contender could push him back to sixth-man territory. Sabonis should return soon, perhaps right after the calendar changes, and while that might take some usage/assists from Westbrook, perhaps he scores more. He certainly is capable, especially now that SG/SF Zach LaVine (ankle) is sidelined, too. What a mess. I added PG Dennis Schroder and SG/PG/SF Malik Monk in a deep league. Their minutes are only rising, too.
Don't be surprised if ... Indiana Pacers C Jay Huff becomes a top-50 player
This feels a bit ridiculous, of course, since Huff went undrafted out of Virginia in 2021 and is now with his fifth NBA franchise in as many seasons, but look at all these blocked shots! That's really what Huff provides for the Pacers and fantasy managers. As with Westbrook, perhaps if the team were better and had more depth, the minutes and numbers wouldn't be there, but Huff leads the NBA in blocked shots (yes, we are aware that Victor Wembanyama averages more per game, but he just missed a month) and over the past 30 days he is averaging 33.4 fantasy points.
Plenty of centers are not averaging that many fantasy points in the past 30 days, including Jalen Duren, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Joel Embiid and Nikola Vucevic, among myriad others. Those fellows are rostered everywhere. Huff is rostered in 26.2% of leagues. He is a legit 7-foot-1 and since becoming Indiana's starting center he averages 3.6 BPG and 2.3 3PG while shooting 50% from the floor. He doesn't score or rebound much, but he blocks everything. Blocks count for four points in ESPN standard leagues. Rebounds are one point.
The 6-20 Pacers (hey, just like the Kings!) could easily decide at a moment's notice to replace Huff's role and minutes with someone else, such as Isaiah Jackson, Tony Bradley or someone off the waiver wire, or they could trade him to a contender that might barely play him. For now, though, Huff is playing at a top-50 level because he is blocking shots and hitting 3-pointers. This combination made C Brook Lopez an underrated fantasy star in recent seasons playing for the Milwaukee Bucks. Huff is the new Lopez.
Don't be surprised if ... Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray earns All-NBA honors this season
Perennial MVP contender Nikola Jokic, 30, who has already delivered some historic seasons and averaged a triple-double last season, enters Thursday averaging a career-high 29.8 PPG, 10.8 APG and 2.2 3PG. Nobody boasts more fantasy points, and it isn't close. Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is more than 300 points behind. I think Jokic gets his league MVP award back from Gilgeous-Alexander after this season.
But don't overlook what Jokic's colleague is achieving. Murray, 28, generally a nice fantasy option but not a building block, averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG last season. This season, he is up to 24.9 PPG with a career-high 4.4 RPG and 6.8 APG, along with 3.2 3PG and 50.1% shooting from the field. Murray has never had a season like this, and while he is universally rostered in fantasy leagues, few expected him to suddenly produce like this.
Murray is 12th in fantasy points and is averaging 46.4 per game. Last season, Murray averaged 41.7 fantasy points. His ADP was 30th in ESPN drafts. It's time for him to garner some individual honors, perhaps third-team All-NBA.
The Nuggets haven't had PF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and SG/SF Christian Braun (ankle) to score and handle minutes, and Murray is the one stepping up the most, with 27.2 PPG and 50.1 fantasy points over the past 30 days. SF/PF Cameron Johnson is handling extra minutes but still is not performing up to expectations. He is certainly capable of averaging three 3PG in this offense. Johnson is rostered in 27.6% of leagues. That seems low. Time to get him, and trade for Murray as if he is a building block player.
Don't be surprised if ... Philadelphia 76ers SF/PF Paul George is the team's No. 2 fantasy option
George, 35, has played only 10 games, roughly half of them with a minutes restriction, so it's hard to judge him on the numbers. However, he has topped 30 minutes in four consecutive games and averaged 22.5 PPG in that span. He's hitting 3-pointers (seven of 10 in the most recent game), still handles the basketball well, and he can defend three positions. This spry version of George that Philadelphia did not see last season finally looks like a top-50 fantasy option again, though concerns remain about durability and, well, his teammates want the ball, too.
Who is Philadelphia's No. 2 fantasy option after PG/SG Tyrese Maxey? Is it still C Joel Embiid, who cannot be remotely trusted to play on any consistent basis and has struggled with his shot and defensive responsibilities recently? SG Quentin Grimes and rookie SG VJ Edgecombe are second and third among 76ers in total fantasy points, well behind Maxey, who is No. 3 in the league. George, even at this stage, offers more statistical upside than Grimes and Edgecombe.
The 76ers and fantasy managers simply cannot count on Embiid and his balky knee to stay healthy all season. Perhaps he averages 20-22 PPG because he shoots so much, but the rebounds, blocked shots and shooting percentages are considerably down from reasonable expectations. Embiid is shooting 22% on 3-pointers, but he keeps attempting them, as his mobility is compromised. This might be the new normal. Yes, George is older, but he seems more likely to reach some semblance of his old statistical upside. Perhaps George can also average 20 PPG, but with 3-pointers, steals and perhaps 5 APG. Dare to dream, 76ers fans, dare to dream.
