We're on to Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season. Insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano have been calling sources around the league for the latest news and buzz on key situations.
This week, we dive into Daniel Jones' Achilles injury and its ramifications, which go beyond the Colts' playoff chances. How will Jones' injury affect his free agency and the quarterback market in general? Dan and Jeremy also evaluate several disappointing 2025 teams and the fixes they could make to bounce back next season. And we're also diving headfirst into the upcoming coaching cycle. How many franchises will be looking for new head coaches, and which coordinator stands out most among the talent pool?
It's all here, as our national reporters answer big questions and empty their notebooks heading into Week 15.
Jump to:
Jones injury fallout | Moves for falling contenders
Open coach jobs | What's next for Vance Joseph
What are you hearing on how Daniel Jones' injury could affect free agency and the QB market?
Graziano: I've heard a few theories in the couple of days since Jones injured his Achilles. One is that it makes sense for him to re-sign with the Colts, since they know him and know he can run their offense. He could rehab with them all offseason and hit the ground running whenever he's cleared. That could be on another one-year deal or maybe a two-year deal with incentives that could make the second year more lucrative if he recovers fully and plays well.
Another is that it would make sense for him to go back to Minnesota, where he finished last season as Sam Darnold's backup, and rehab there with a staff that knows him and wanted to retain him but couldn't guarantee him the starting job this past offseason. Either way, the idea of a lucrative, long-term contract extension in Indianapolis (or somewhere else) probably slides to the back burner in light of Jones' most recent season-ending injury.
The other thing to consider, Jeremy, is who's going to be making the decisions for the Colts this offseason, since there has been chatter about coaches and front office personnel being on the hot seat since last offseason. I wonder how a potential late-season collapse (if that what's coming) would affect things on that front.
Fowler: The Colts' brass had quelled the noise with this season's hot start, Dan, but new owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon will evaluate the full body of work. Since a repeat 8-9 season is still on the table, finishing with seven consecutive losses wouldn't be the best thing for the future tenures of head coach Shane Steichen or general manager Chris Ballard. But I think everyone there recognizes that Indy has built a good team that thrived over the season's first 10 games -- especially Jones, who remains the top free agent quarterback available despite this injury.
If the Colts and Vikings pursue Jones, then he has a nice little market to drive up his demand. But maybe it doesn't get that far ... if Indianapolis puts the franchise or transition tag on Jones. That's not totally off the table after asking around. Those numbers are projected somewhere between $39 million and $46 million. Either way, getting creative with the contract to cover both sides will be important, but Jones will need security beyond a one-year deal considering how late in the calendar year the Achilles tear occurred.
So, the injury is a factor, but I'm not so sure it affects his market too much. As you know, Dan, the upcoming free agent class isn't exactly loaded at quarterback.
Graziano: Sure, but I guess the point of the question is more about the reduced likelihood of a big deal, like a Baker Mayfield-type deal or Darnold-level deal -- or heck, even the type of deal Jones got from the Giants a few years back. I think that's the impact of the injury -- that he and whichever team he ends up with will have to be creative and, as you suggest, build something that gives Jones some time to not only get back onto the field but also get back to playing at a relatively high level.
Jones is still only 28, so there's certainly plenty of hope for him to recover and still have a future in the league. But this is also the third season-ending injury of his career, and that history has to be a concern for whichever team is interested in signing him.
Fowler: That's valid. My sense is Indianapolis will want to see how Jones is progressing in his rehab before deciding. That will help inform the team on how to proceed. If the Colts believe Jones will be a productive starter for them over the next three to four seasons, then perhaps paying him a respectable market deal now will be a discount in two years, instead of haggling over the level of discount required because of the injury.
Jones has been Indy's most viable quarterback option since Andrew Luck, so the Colts might not be afraid to pay him big. Coaches and teammates there love him. And a few other teams could be facing a quarterback transition -- the Browns, Jets and Raiders among them.
What is one realistic offseason move that could help fix a fallen preseason favorite?
Fowler: The Chiefs and Ravens are both teams that need a classic boundary receiver on the outside and could address that with one big move in free agency. George Pickens would be a significant upgrade in Baltimore, and Alec Pierce would satisfy that need in Kansas City, which has been starved for explosive playmaking on the outside since Tyreek Hill was traded after the 2021 season.
Both would be costly, and Pickens might be franchise tagged by Dallas. But if available, the Ravens could use some of their $40 million in 2026 cap space on Pickens, knowing John Harbaugh is good at managing big personalities. The Chiefs are much lower on space, sitting at minus-$42.8 million, but cuts are on the way for a team that might look drastically different this time next year. Also, adding an explosive running back such as Breece Hall or Travis Etienne Jr. is worth exploring for Kansas City.
Graziano: Running back makes sense for the Chiefs, as does diversifying their WR room. I wonder if missing the playoffs and having a reset forced upon them might not be the worst thing in the world -- though I'm sure the Chiefs don't see it that way.
The Commanders need pass-rush help, linebacker help, secondary help ... all of it. I wouldn't be stunned if they devoted most of their draft resources to the defense, though they don't have any picks in the second or fourth rounds because of the Laremy Tunsil trade. On offense, Washington is a spot a lot of people have pegged as a potential destination for Brandon Aiyuk, as it's believed he'd like to team up with former Arizona State teammate Jayden Daniels.
Fowler: The Aiyuk-Washington connection makes a ton of sense. Speaking of the Commanders, it was shocking to me when they didn't aggressively address pass rusher last offseason. As a result, their sack leader is Dorance Armstrong -- who tore his ACL in Week 7 -- with 5.5. Plenty of pass rushers should be available in free agency. But Washington could also identify rushers on rookie deals who might want a trade due to inactivity on a contract extension with their current team. The Jaguars' Travon Walker, Giants' Kayvon Thibodeaux and Jets' Jermaine Johnson are among players on expiring rookie deals who could be 2027 free agents.
As for Cincinnati, Dan, the Bengals need everything on defense except maybe a cornerback. Up the middle, there's a need at every level (defensive line, linebacker, safety).
Graziano: Trey Hendrickson seems certain to be leaving Cincinnati, which hasn't exactly hit it out of the park with its recent, high-round edge rusher draft picks. The Bengals don't spend big, but they hit in free agency once upon a time with Hendrickson, and I think they'll look for a solution along those lines again this offseason.
So yes, I'm interested to see what the Bengals do on defense. Do they give Al Golden a second year as coordinator, or are we looking at another scheme change? The way they feel their linebackers have improved as the season has progressed makes me think they'll run it back with Golden and add players he thinks fit his system. I always wonder if the Bengals will get creative with a player-for-player trade and bring in someone like Thibodeaux or Byron Young, who could be available toward the tail end of their rookie deals.
What's the over/under on open head coaching jobs this offseason?
Graziano: I'll set it at six, since two (Titans and Giants) are already open and we're watching for potential change in places such as Las Vegas, Atlanta, Arizona, Miami, Cleveland and Cincinnati. I'm not saying all of those will come open, of course, but it wouldn't be shocking if three or four of them did.
Pete Carroll's first season with Raiders has been a disaster and they've already let go of two coordinators. The Falcons and Cardinals had higher preseason expectations than what has been delivered (though I lean toward Arizona keeping its coaches and letting them try to develop a quarterback post-Kyler Murray). It sounds as if Mike McDaniel has a chance to save his job in Miami with a strong finish, which he seems to be on his way to putting together, but any time the GM gets fired midseason (as Chris Grier was in Miami), more potential change could be on the way.
Kevin Stefanski isn't necessarily to blame for the Browns' quarterback mess, but his record the past two seasons is 6-24 and a turnaround doesn't seem imminent. A couple of people have suggested to me that Stefanski would be of interest to other teams if the Browns moved on, as he's well-regarded around the league. And the Bengals are unpredictable, and Zac Taylor has only one year left on his deal. Then again, he's either the most or second-most successful coach in franchise history, has established a contending culture and is well liked by the star quarterback. So my guess is he returns. But again, more was expected this season in Cincinnati, so at the very least we have our antennae up.
Fowler: A spot-on breakdown of the landscape, Dan, and though I'd love to say seven openings for entertainment, I'm not sure I can get there yet. I'll stand firm with you at six. Picking up where you left off, Bengals owner Mike Brown operates a little differently -- perhaps he lets Taylor coach out his contract that runs through 2026. It feels as if anything is possible there. Across the state, one thing that helps Stefanski's case is that Browns owner Jimmy Haslam finally found a dependable infrastructure with Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry, and the two-year struggle can be directly tied to the failed Deshaun Watson experiment. The team is very young but should be good in 2026 due to their exciting 2025 rookie class. That said, 6-24 is 6-24. Let's see what happens over the next month.
I'm with you on the Cardinals. Keeping Jonathan Gannon is a sensible play for owner Michael Bidwill. But Arizona is staring at a potential 1-14 finish. The team is miserably bad right now and finishes the season with the Texans, Falcons, Bengals and Rams. Gannon might need to win one, maybe two games to reach solid footing. The Raiders are really struggling, which should surprise no one given the talent disparity. This team needs someone to usher in the rebuild. And McDaniel is helping his cause with Dolphins, and enough people around the league think he has made a compelling case to stay.
So, if we're sliding Miami out of the mix, that means four of the five spots you mentioned above would need to open to reach six. That's entirely possible, especially with the smoke rising around Raheem Morris in Atlanta. If we're forecasting potential surprises, what comes to mind? There's usually at least one.
Graziano: Well, my stock answer to that is always, "If I knew that, it wouldn't be a surprise!" But you're right, there does always seem to be one that catches us off guard. I keep getting asked if I think the Steelers or Ravens jobs would come open if either team were to miss the playoffs. I don't think they will come open, but the market would shake up in a big way if I'm wrong.
Andy Reid turns 68 next spring and there were retirement noises swirling around him a couple of years ago, but I think the contract extension he received indicates that he's not interested in hanging it up any time soon -- especially with how disappointing this season seems to be for the Chiefs. How about you? What's your surprise pick?
Fowler: The Ravens are really interesting. That would qualify as a pretty major surprise, and while I think Harbaugh stays, something seems off there. They should not be 6-7 based on their roster talent. The lack of offensive production has been a source of frustration internally. This feels more like a reset in 2026, with multiple staff changes on the way. The Mike Tomlin smoke surfaces annually, but he's fiercely loyal to Pittsburgh, and here he is rallying the Steelers to a big late-season divisional win again. We touched on the Colts earlier ... that would qualify as a surprise, too.
What are you hearing about Vance Joseph's chances to land a head coach gig? Is he the top candidate at the moment?
Fowler: The coaching pool is strongest on the defensive side this year, and Joseph is well-positioned among available defense-oriented candidates. His Broncos defense set a franchise record with 63 sacks in 2024, which this year's defense easily should break, with 55 sacks through 13 games. Former head coaches will be a theme this year, and Joseph has head coaching experience. Much will depend on exactly what teams are looking for and the interview process, but he should get plenty of chances. If Miami opens, remember that Joseph was a finalist for the Dolphins job that went to Mike McDaniel in 2022 and is still well-regarded there.
Graziano: Joseph seems to be the name we're hearing the most, because of Denver's defensive success and his previous head coach experience (with Denver, oddly enough). People close to the situation point out that Joseph never had a stable quarterback situation in his first head coaching stint and didn't have full autonomy over the hiring of his staff, so it would seem unfair to completely hold his 11-21 record against him. I think he gets several interviews and could be a strong candidate in a place such as Las Vegas, should that job come open.
Fowler: Joseph is part of a crowded class of defensive coordinators. The Rams' Chris Shula, Packers' Jeff Hafley, Chargers' Jesse Minter and Dolphins' Anthony Weaver are all ascending coordinators looking to be first-time coaches. The Seahawks' Adin Durde and Jaguars' Anthony Campanile are under-the-radar names bubbling to the surface. And the 49ers' Robert Saleh has reestablished himself as a potential second-time head coach after helping lead injury-hampered San Francisco to a winning season. Lou Anarumo has also reestablished himself in Indy.
Graziano: I think the key point you made earlier, which I keep hearing from people in discussions about this coaching cycle, is that teams will be looking for candidates with previous head coaching experience. There's a thought that the coordinator pool, especially on the offensive side, has dried up a bit because of all the quick hirings and firings of the past decade-plus.
People see what Mike Vrabel has been able to do in New England this season and what Jim Harbaugh has been able to do with the Chargers in his first two years there, and teams want to make sure they're bringing in someone they know can run a program -- not someone who has just been really good at the smaller job who they think can run a program. I think that gives guys like Joseph, Arthur Smith, Matt Nagy, etc. a chance. Even if they weren't successful in their first stints as head coaches, they've done the job and probably learned from whatever mistakes they might have made the first time.
