MLB's winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball's offseason activity is likely to take off.
What's the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What's the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year's meetings.
Last year's winter meetings were all about Juan Soto -- is there one free agent or theme on everyone's mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course -- the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A's and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation -- and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams' fortunes -- from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets -- depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens -- perhaps sometime during the meetings -- teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn't entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn't close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso's signing could go down after Schwarber.
What's clear is that there's a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins' choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs -- if you've got offers in hand, it'd be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later -- he's coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta -- which still needs a shortstop -- on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of 'big-name.' Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend and new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you're talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez's next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn't throw hard -- which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he's the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won't fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff rsum, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters'.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available -- more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz's free agency is fascinating because he's the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals -- and Paul Toboni, Washington's president of baseball operations, said in a "Baseball Tonight" podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors -- and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven't been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that's because they don't have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn't trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona's All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren't clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay's Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren't accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A's among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time -- some agents think they'll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player -- and though the priority is pitching, they're not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber's power and on-base capability -- can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? -- he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don't believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia's cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There's a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan -- and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall -- either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees -- with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season -- New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
