Each year, I make a bold prediction for every team as part of our MLB season preview. These aren't wacky, unthinkable predictions -- like a catcher hitting 60 home runs or a hitter reaching base nine times in a World Series game or the World Series being decided by the length of the lead a runner gets off third base. No, who could predict any of that happening?
These were bold -- but realistic -- predictions for the 2025 season. Let's go back and grade each one to see how I did -- and then spin it forward to next year.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The prediction: Paul Skenes doesn't just win the Cy Young Award -- he has the best season ever for a Pirates starter (in the live ball era, since 1920).
Cy Young Award? Check. Highest WAR for a Pirates starter since 1920? Check. Lowest ERA by a Pirates starter since 1920? Check. Well done, Mr. Skenes, well done.
Grade: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: It won't be easy to top 7.7 WAR and a 1.97 ERA, but Skenes can do it. He can certainly improve upon his 187 innings as the Pirates still held him back, letting him reach 100 pitches in just eight of his 31 starts. With a few more starts on four days of rest and additional innings, a 9- or 10-WAR season is possible.
Seattle Mariners
The prediction: Bryan Woo will be the best starter on the Mariners.
Nailed it. Woo went 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 4.2 WAR - double the 2.1 of fellow rotation members Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo. Woo, who finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, also set an MLB record when he pitched at least six innings in each of his first 25 starts of the season. Unfortunately, he injured his pectoral muscle in his final start of the regular season, missed the ALDS and was only able to pitch out of the bullpen in the team's ALCS loss to Toronto.
Grade: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: The Mariners will have high hopes after finishing one win short of their first World Series appearance. With better health from Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller and another big season from Woo, the Mariners' rotation can get back to its 2024 status as one of the best in the game.
Cleveland Guardians
The prediction: Gavin Williams will lead the rotation in ERA and WAR.
Williams finished 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.8 WAR -- easily leading the rotation in both categories.
Grade: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: Williams certainly delivered a breakout season, riding one of the best curveballs in the game (batters hit just .116 against it). He tweaked his slider, turning it into a sweeper, and that became another effective pitch. If he can cut down on his walks -- he led the majors with 83 -- he can take another step forward.
Detroit Tigers
The prediction: Riley Greene becomes just the 10th Tigers outfielder to hit 30 home runs and becomes the first Tigers outfielder to make consecutive All-Star appearances since Magglio Ordonez in 2006-07.
Greene hit 36 home runs and did make the All-Star team again, so I nailed both predictions. His WAR, however, fell from 5.4 to 2.2 as his defensive metrics on Baseball-Reference were much worse and his OBP dropped from .348 to .313. It was a weird mix, as he also set a Tigers record with 201 strikeouts and his walk rate fell from the 83rd percentile to the 34th.
Grade: A
Looking ahead to 2026: While Greene drove in 111 runs, he slumped to a .218 average and .694 OPS in the second half and hit just .185 overall in high-leverage situations. His speed metrics declined significantly as well. The power numbers were great, but Greene needs to get back to being a better all-around player.
Boston Red Sox
The prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran all win Gold Gloves.
Close! No outfield trio had ever done this, and while Rafaela won his first in center field and Abreu won his second in right field, Cleveland's Steven Kwan won again in left field. Duran had led all outfielders in defensive runs saved in 2024 and had another good season in the field, but he fell off enough that Kwan won for the fourth year in a row.
Grade: B+
Looking ahead to 2026: Enter Roman Anthony. The outstanding rookie played 71 games in 2025 and will be playing every day in 2026. The Red Sox could rotate the four outfielders through the DH role, although they have Masataka Yoshida there as well. They could play Rafaela at second base, but that's a waste of his defense in center field. It could lead to an offseason trade.
New York Mets
The prediction: Juan Soto sets a club record for OPS, and Pete Alonso breaks his own club record in RBIs.
With a .921 OPS, Soto fell short of Mike Piazza's mark of 1.012, although he was still a top-three MVP finalist after hitting a career-high 43 home runs and leading the National League in on-base percentage. Alonso finished with 126 RBIs, a big improvement from 2024 when he drove in 88, but he just missed his club record of 131 set in 2022.
Grade: B
Looking ahead to 2026: Alonso is a free agent and will seek -- and certainly receive -- a bigger deal than the two-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Mets last offseason (that included a player opt-out). While he still seems like the right fit for the Mets, the front office might look to put money toward the pitching staff instead.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The prediction: Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte both finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting and the Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs for the second straight season.
What a frustrating year for the Diamondbacks. They did get two players in the top 10 of MVP voting and one was Carroll, but the other was shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (who led all NL position players with a 7.0 WAR). Marte had a solid 4.4-WAR season and made the All-Star team. Arizona finished sixth in runs scored (and were fourth before dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline).
Grade: B
Looking ahead to 2026: With holes to fill in the rotation and the bullpen, plus first base, Marte's name has popped up in trade rumors. It could be related to reports in July that he lost support in the clubhouse after missing three games following the All-Star break when he flew home to the Dominican Republic. He was placed on the restricted list for two games while absent and benched for the third after returning -- though did apologize for the absence.
Texas Rangers
The prediction: Wyatt Langford has a 30/30 season and finishes in the top 10 of the MVP voting.
This one is interesting. Langford had a 22/22 season in home runs and stolen bases -- so didn't come all that close to 30/30 -- and didn't crack the top 10 in MVP voting, but he did finish with 5.6 WAR, which ranked tied for eighth among American League position players. Part of the high WAR was his outstanding defense, but also that, for whatever reason, Globe Life Field played as an extreme pitcher's park in 2025, so Langford finished with an excellent 127 OPS+.
Grade: B-
Looking ahead to 2026: Langford played 134 games, so if he can get up to 150 and if Globe Life returns to more of a neutral park, 30/30 will be on the radar. If he can cut down on his strikeouts -- 16th percentile -- then we'll see even bigger offensive numbers across the board.
Los Angeles Angels
The prediction: The Angels will have six 20-homer hitters ... but still lose 95 games.
The Angels did hit a lot of home runs, ranking fourth in the majors, although just four players reached 20 with a fifth at 19. And, hey, they didn't lose 95 games! They only lost 90.
Grade: B-
Looking ahead to 2026: The trade-off for those home runs? The Angels led the majors in strikeouts. And their .225 team batting average was the worst as well. As a result, they finished 25th in runs scored, despite all the home runs. The Angels need to diversify their offense, but there isn't much help on the way from the minors. Let's see what happens in free agency.
Chicago Cubs
The prediction: Kyle Tucker hits 40 home runs, steals 30 bases and finishes second to Shohei Ohtani in the MVP voting.
At the end of June, Tucker was hitting .291/.395/.537 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases -- on pace for 33 home runs and 39 stolen bases. At the time, he ranked third in the NL in WAR, just barely behind Ohtani and teammate Pete Crow-Armstrong. He was on track to finish second in the MVP voting, given PCA was likely to regress. But Tucker had suffered a hairline fracture in his hand, which, in turn, affected his production, and then he suffered a calf strain in September. He finished with 22 home runs and 23 steals.
Grade: C+
Looking ahead to 2026: Tucker is a free agent -- he is No. 1 in our ranking of this offseason's top free agents. He is projected to get a big contract from some team, but probably not the Cubs. They have young outfield options such as Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, plus Seiya Suzuki, who can DH or play right field, and need to address their rotation.
Kansas City Royals
The prediction: Vinnie Pasquantino hits with .300 with 25 home runs and makes the All-Star team.
Pasquantino did break out his best season, hitting .264 with 32 home runs and 113 RBIs, although he did not make the All-Star team as his power surged with 17 home runs in 64 games after the All-Star break. While he had a fairly low BABIP of .271, he matched his "expected" average of .263.
Grade: C+
Looking ahead to 2026: Pasquantino has turned into a dead-pull hitter -- he pulled all 32 of his home runs -- and while he keeps the strikeouts down (83rd percentile), he probably won't turn into a .300 hitter with his fly-ball-oriented approach. His defensive metrics are weak and he's slow, but he has a case as the No. 2 first baseman in the AL.
Philadelphia Phillies
The prediction: All five starters throw at least 162 innings and finish with an ERA under 3.50.
The 2006 White Sox remain safe. The only pitcher to meet both criteria was Cristopher Sanchez; Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 157 innings) and Zack Wheeler (2.71 ERA, 149 innings) just missed. Jesus Luzardo pitched enough innings, but his ERA was a little high (3.92), while Aaron Nola was awful with a 6.01 ERA. The Phillies' rotation did lead the majors in FanGraphs WAR and ranked second in ERA.
Grade: C
Looking ahead to 2026: The rotation is in a bit of flux. Suarez is a free agent, Wheeler will attempt to return from thoracic outlet surgery, and Nola will have to bounce back.
Atlanta Braves
The prediction: Spencer Schwellenbach will finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting.
This looked pretty good through June 28, when Schwellenbach was 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA, 108 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 110 innings. He ranked tied for seventh in the NL in FanGraphs WAR at the time, just one good start outside the top five. Unfortunately, he didn't pitch again after being diagnosed with a small fracture in his elbow.
Grade: C
Looking ahead to 2026: Schwellenbach has already started a throwing program and is expected to be part of the rotation next season. With a healthy Schwellenbach, a healthy Chris Sale and an improved Spencer Strider, the rotation could be good enough to get the Braves back in the playoff picture.
Houston Astros
The prediction: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Spencer Arrighetti will win 45 games and combine for 13 WAR.
Well, two out of three isn't bad. Brown went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA and was a Cy Young finalist. Valdez was solid again, going 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA. Arrighetti, who had finished strong in 2024, broke his thumb in early April -- he was hit by a line drive in batting practice while playing catch in the outfield. He returned in August, struggled and finished the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation. The trio combined for 26 wins and 10.0 WAR.
Grade: C-
Looking ahead to 2026: Valdez is a free agent, so if the Astros don't re-sign him -- a likely scenario -- they will be counting on Arrighetti, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. to make more than the 28 combined starts they did in 2025. Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter and AJ Blubaugh, all rookies in 2025, should also factor into the rotation mix.
Athletics
The prediction: Brent Rooker hits 53 home runs and edges out Aaron Judge for the home run title.
OK, OK ... instead, can we call up the clip from the "Baseball Tonight" podcast when I predict Nick Kurtz will win Rookie of the Year? (Spoiler: He did.) No? The thinking here was Sacramento might play as a tremendous hitter's park. Instead, it was close to neutral and the A's homered slightly more often on the road. Rooker finished with 30 home runs.
Grade: C-
Looking ahead to 2026: Now, Kurtz ... he might be a player who can win the home run title after mashing 36 in just 117 games. With Kurtz leading the way, the A's are going to have one of the most exciting lineups in baseball in 2026.
Washington Nationals
The prediction: CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. both reach 25 home runs.
Only six middle infield combos had done that since 2010. It's still six. Abrams hit 19 home runs and Garcia 16 -- one fewer from 2024 for Abrams and two for Garcia. Garcia saw his batting average drop 30 points, resulting in a 61-point drop in OPS.
Grade: D+
Looking ahead to 2026: The Nationals were supposed to be building around James Wood, Dylan Crews and the two infielders, but only Wood met expectations in 2025 -- and even he slumped in the second half after a big first half. Maybe a new manager, coaching staff and front office can get more out of this group.
Miami Marlins
The prediction: The Marlins quickly fall out of the race in April and trade Sandy Alcantara to the Athletics.
Well, part of that was right: The Marlins were 12-18 at the end of April and already 8.5 games out of first place. However, Alcantara, returning from Tommy John surgery, got off to a horrific start -- 8.31 ERA at the end of April, 8.47 at the end of May -- and was untradable, although his name did still pop up at the trade deadline.
Grade: D+
Looking ahead to 2026: With a much better second half -- a 3.33 ERA over his final 13 starts -- Alcantara's name is near the top of the offseason "most likely to be traded" list. You know who could use a starter? The Athletics!
Chicago White Sox
The prediction: The White Sox lose 110 games, matching the 1962-63 Mets as the only team to lose at least 110 in consecutive seasons.
OK, fine ... I also predicted the White Sox would trade Luis Robert Jr. No more trade predictions for me! Like Alcantara, Robert was so bad that his value tanked. The White Sox were also a little better than their preseason forecast, although they still finished with 102 losses.
Grade: D+
Looking ahead to 2026: The White Sox picked up Robert's $20 million option for 2026 -- hoping he can find his 2023 level of production. But after two bad years at the plate and an inability to remain healthy, that is growing increasingly less likely.
Milwaukee Brewers
The prediction: Jackson Chourio will finish with a .900 OPS.
This was an aggressive prediction, but Chourio had posted a .915 OPS in 63 second-half games in 2024. He finished 2025 with a slash line of .270/.308/.463 and a .770 OPS that was 21 points lower than his rookie season.
Grade: D
Looking ahead to 2026: Chourio's high chase rate (eighth percentile) was a key reason he failed to improve upon his rookie season, as it led to too much soft contact, even with a league-average strikeout rate. He's still just entering his age-22 season, so there's time to improve, but the likelihood he turns into a big star has dimmed a little.
Cincinnati Reds
The prediction: Elly De La Cruz will hit 30 home runs, steal 80 bases and finish in the top five of the MVP voting.
Well, that was a letdown. After hitting 25 home runs and stealing 67 bases in 2024 in his age-22 season, De La Cruz fell off to 22 home runs and 37 stolen bases, despite playing all 162 games. Most shockingly, he fell into a horrific power slump, homering just once in a 74-game span from late June through early September.
Grade: D
Looking ahead to 2026: What happened here? After his 5.2-WAR season in 2024, De La Cruz seemed ready for even bigger things. Instead, he regressed. Of interest: Perhaps looking to cut down on his strikeouts (which he did), De La Cruz's bat speed declined from the left side and his swing length shortened. But it didn't lead to better results.
San Diego Padres
The prediction: Michael King becomes just the third Padres pitcher to win 20 games.
Ahh, pitcher predictions -- often doomed to fail due to injury risk. King was great through the end of April (4-1 with a 2.09 ERA) but then got injured in the middle of May, made one start in early August and then didn't pitch again until September. He finished 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 starts.
Grade: D
Looking ahead to 2026: King is a free agent. Dylan Cease is a free agent. Yu Darvish is already out for the season. The Padres' rotation is going to need a big offseason makeover.
Colorado Rockies
The prediction: The Rockies will end up with two All-Stars: outfielder Brenton Doyle and reliever Victor Vodnik.
LOL. The Rockies had just one All-Star, although at least catcher Hunter Goodman was a deserving one (he hit 31 home runs and won a Silver Slugger award). Doyle hit .233 with 15 home runs, and Vodnik had a 3.02 ERA and 10 saves.
Grade: D
Looking ahead to 2026: The Rockies probably won't have two All-Stars.
St. Louis Cardinals
The prediction: The Cardinals stay in the NL Central race until the final week of the season -- with four rookies in the rotation.
Well, technically, the Cardinals were still alive in the wild-card race entering the final week, sitting four games behind the Reds and Mets. The four rookies I mentioned -- Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe -- made little impact, however, with only McGreevy (16 starts) even appearing in the majors in 2025.
Grade: D-
Looking ahead to 2026: The premise here was correct: The Cardinals didn't have a good rotation. Mathews was the top prospect entering the season but struggled with his control in Triple-A. Hence had a couple of injuries and made just eight starts in the minors. Hjerpe had Tommy John surgery in April and didn't pitch at all. The rotation will need some help.
Baltimore Orioles
The prediction: Samuel Basallo becomes the regular DH in the second half and hits 15 home runs.
Basallo did eventually hit his way out of Triple-A, making his debut for the Orioles on Aug. 17, just a few days after turning 21. He struggled big time, however, hitting .165/.229/.330 with four home runs in 31 games.
Grade: D-
Looking ahead to 2026: Basallo remains one of the top prospects in the game and his rookie status is intact. While he scuffled in the majors, he hit .270/.377/.589 with 23 home runs in 76 games at Triple-A. Whether he'll continue to catch remains a question, but he can hit.
New York Yankees
The prediction: The Yankees finish 80-82 for their first losing season since 1992.
Oops. The reasoning here was that without Gerrit Cole and with Luis Gil sidelined for several months, the Yankees might be in trouble. Well, of course, Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger combined for 63 home runs and 8.6 WAR, Aaron Judge had another dominant MVP season, the rotation was fine with Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and rookie Cam Schlittler, and the Yankees won 94 games.
Grade: F
Looking ahead to 2026: With Cole returning and Gil and Schlittler around for full seasons, this projects as an outstanding rotation. Grisham and Bellinger are free agents, however, so the Yankees will have to fill center field -- perhaps with rookie Spencer Jones, if they don't re-sign one of the two free agents.
Minnesota Twins
The prediction: The Twins will have the best bullpen in the majors, with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax both posting sub-2.00 ERAs.
Duran just missed, with a 2.06 ERA. But Jax had a 4.23 ERA, although a 2.51 FIP. Of course, the bigger story here: Duran finished the season with the Phillies and Jax with the Rays (and Louis Varland, who had a 2.02 ERA with Minnesota, with the Blue Jays). In the end, the Twins finished 26th in bullpen ERA and 28th in win probability added -- although tied for sixth in FanGraphs WAR. That's an odd mix, basically suggesting Twins relievers had good peripheral stats but didn't prevent runs or pitch well in high-leverage situations.
Grade: F
Looking ahead to 2026: After trading their top three relievers, the Twins will have to rebuild the back end of their bullpen. It's unclear if those players are currently on the roster. Journeyman right-hander Justin Topa got four of the team's eight saves after the deadline dump. Cole Sands would be another late-inning option.
San Francisco Giants
The prediction: Bryce Eldridge will be called up early in the season and lead the team in home runs.
Nope. Eldridge injured his wrist in spring training, missed the first month of the minor league season and finally made his major league debut in September (going 3-for-28 with 13 strikeouts and no home runs). He had surgery after the season to remove a bone spur from his wrist.
Grade: F
Looking ahead to 2026: Eldridge is still just 21 and mashed 25 home runs in 102 games in the minors, so the 6-foot-7 slugger remains a top prospect. With Rafael Devers in the mix as the possible full-time first baseman, the Giants can play it a little more conservatively with Eldridge, make sure the wrist is healthy and give him a couple of months in Triple-A. His future as a potential elite power bat remains in play.
Tampa Bay Rays
The prediction: Curtis Mead produces the first 4-WAR season by a player born in Australia.
Remember the old rule: Never buy into spring training hype or statistics. Mead had a hot spring and started at first base on Opening Day, but the bat never got going and the Rays ended up trading him to the White Sox at the trade deadline. He finished at .233/.291/.321, batting 264 times in a utility role. Value: minus-0.2 WAR.
Grade: F
Looking ahead to 2026: The hype Mead had as a prospect has faded. He's still just 25 and the White Sox do have a hole at first base, so he'll be in the mix to win that job.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The prediction: The lowest team ERA+ of the live ball era (since 1920).
This seemed reasonable considering the three lowest marks in this category belonged to the 2020 Dodgers (146), the 2022 Dodgers (145) and 2021 Dodgers (140). With Shohei Ohtani returning to the mound, plus the free agent additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, the Dodgers' pitching appeared deeper than ever. Instead, it was mediocre -- at least until the postseason -- and the Dodgers finished just 10th in the majors with a 106 ERA+.
Grade: F
Looking ahead to 2026: All the key pitchers will be back, and assuming more volume from the likes of Ohtani, Snell and Tyler Glasnow, plus improvement from the bullpen, I just might make this prediction again.
Toronto Blue Jays
The prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is traded ... to Seattle or Milwaukee.
Well, this is about as wrong as you can get. The Blue Jays, of course, signed Guerrero to that $500 million extension about a week after the season started. They also were not out of the race at the trade deadline, as I also predicted. My attorney offers up this defense: (1) These extensions NEVER happen after the season has started for a player one year away free agency; (2) George Springer? Ernie Clement? Nathan Lukes? Nobody saw those seasons coming; (3) The Mariners (Josh Naylor) and Brewers (Andrew Vaughn) both traded for first basemen. Apparently, the jury has rejected this defense.
Grade: F-
Looking ahead to 2026: Guerrero was very good in the regular season, although his batting average dropped from .323 to .292 and his slugging percentage from .544 to .467. But he crushed it in the postseason, hitting .397/.494/.795 with eight home runs in 18 games as Toronto made it all the way to the World Series, losing in a crushing Game 7. Let's see if he can parlay that into a more dominant regular season.
