Trade AD? Wait for free agency? Tank? Every option in Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks are in a precarious position.

Nine months after former general manager Nico Harrison sent face of the franchise Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in arguably the most shocking trade in NBA history, the franchise is near the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

Harrison was fired last week. Anthony Davis, the cornerstone of the Mavs' return in the deal, has been limited to five games this season because of a calf strain. Kyrie Irving, meanwhile, remains sidelined as he recovers from an ACL tear suffered late last season.

It all begs the question: What decisions can the Mavericks, whose contending timeline shattered after reaching the NBA Finals just 29 months ago, make to begin turning things around as it ushers in the Cooper Flagg era?

ESPN's NBA insiders are breaking down the next moves for the Mavericks, including the fallout from a potential Davis trade, options in the 2026 draft and free agency -- and the pros and cons of waiting until the roster is healthy again.

Jump to a section:
Trading AD: What's his value?
Reshape roster around Flagg
Wait for healthy Davis, Irving
Pivot to lottery positioning
Focus on 2026 free agency

When could Dallas explore moving Anthony Davis? What is his trade value?

Before we get to those questions, we should acknowledge that it is unknown how much authority interim GMs Michael Finley and Matt Riccardi have to change the roster. Finley has a long history in Dallas, as a player from 1996 to 2005 and then as the assistant GM/VP of player personnel since 2021. Riccardi was named assistant GM the same year Finley joined the front office.

That mystery likely won't be answered in the next few weeks, as teams are still evaluating their rosters. Since 2012, only nine trades have occurred in November.

This offseason, 28% of all players signed contracts, and they cannot be traded until Dec. 15. Dallas cannot trade Irving, Dante Exum or D'Angelo Russell until then. P.J. Washington, meanwhile, is not eligible because he signed an extension.

That one-month holding pattern does not preclude the front office from having internal discussions about the roster, including how Davis and Irving fit long term. Harrison traded for both players during his tenure.

Dallas ranks 29th in offensive efficiency and has a dire need for playmaking until Irving returns, letting Flagg, Russell and Brandon Williams play at point guard in the early going. But acknowledging that the Mavericks help at guard and actually trading for one are two different things. They are in the second apron team ($1.3 million below), not allowed to take back more money in a trade and have just two second-round draft picks to trade.

There should be an honest discussion on trading Davis.

ESPN talked to team executives from both conferences regarding Davis' future and what his market could look like if the Mavericks explore trading him.

"You have to look at what he did the prior two seasons with the Lakers, his short tenure in Dallas and then the future," an Eastern Conference executive said.

In Los Angeles, Davis played the most games in his career (76) during the 2023-24 season and was named to the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. That was the first time Davis played at least 65 games since 2017-18. He was averaging 25.7 points and 11.9 rebounds in 41 games before he was traded to Dallas.

Davis has played 15 games since, missing time because of a left abductor strain and currently a left calf strain.

"While you can point to Davis as a top-20 player in Los Angeles, it is a $175 million gamble and perhaps more, if you trade for him," a West executive said. "I would want to see a long stretch of games of Davis healthy before there could ever be a discussion."

Davis is in the first year of a three-year, $175 million extension ($54.1, $58.5 and $62.8 million) he signed in August 2023. He will turn 33 in March and is eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension starting Aug. 6, the last year of which would pay him $76 million at age 37.

"The extension and paying a player in their mid-30s an average of $69 million and the last nine months in Dallas is what scares me," the West executive said. "In this current CBA, you cannot afford to have a player earning 35% of the salary cap on the sidelines more than on the court."

Despite his injury history, current salary and potential cost to extend, there would be a trade market for Davis. Look at what unfolded last season with Jimmy Butler III and the Miami Heat. The then-35-year-old and his $48.8 million contract were traded to the Golden State Warriors and extended for two more seasons and $111 million.

-- Bobby Marks

How could a Davis trade help reshape the Mavs' roster?

If Dallas can accept that trading Davis will never yield the kind of return the Mavericks gave up to get him, there are plenty of reasons to think that a deal will improve the roster moving forward.

Davis has played out of position in Dallas because of the team's center depth, but there are ripple effects, too. Washington played power forward when the Mavericks reached the 2023 Finals and benefitted from a quickness advantage he doesn't have as a small forward. And Flagg, who is best cast as a combo forward, has been pushed to guard during his rookie season.

Trading Davis for perimeter talent would rebalance Dallas' roster and put everyone else in a better position to succeed. It would almost make the Mavericks younger. According to minutes played this season, the average age of Dallas' players has been middle of the pack, but that figures to increase as Davis gets healthy and Irving returns. The Mavericks were among the NBA's 10 oldest teams after last season's trade deadline.

Having a veteran roster made sense when Dallas was built on Harrison's timeline, which he said, after trading Doncic, was "three to four years from now." The Mavericks already burned one of those years and are well on the way toward scrapping another.

Now that Dallas' most important player is 18-year-old Flagg, that vision no longer makes sense. The Mavericks won't likely recoup the draft picks they sent out in trades designed to build a championship contender around Doncic. Still, adding young talent and draft picks will help ensure Flagg has sufficient talent around him down the road. Currently, Dallas has its first-round pick in 2026 (the last one of its own it controls until 2031) and one from the Lakers in 2029. The Mavs won't have one in 2027 unless it lands in the top two.

-- Kevin Pelton

Is fixing Dallas' issues, especially on offense, as simple as getting Davis and Irving back from injury?

Irving and Davis being healthy would certainly help Dallas' 29th-ranked offense. Irving, in particular, would give the Mavericks an element of elite ballhandling and playmaking that they've missed.

But even with Irving in the backcourt, the Mavericks would likely lack enough shooting to produce at an above-average level. They rank 30th in 3-point makes (10.6 per game) and 29th in accuracy (31.1%). Some of that is bad luck, as their shooters are almost all underperforming their quantified shot probability -- the expected percentage based on factors such as shot location, defender distance and shooter ability, per GeniusIQ tracking -- but the declining output from Klay Thompson (32% on 3s in his age-36 season) isn't a surprise.

It's difficult to imagine lineups with Davis, Flagg and either Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford -- each a rim-running center with zero career 3-pointers -- generating enough spacing to succeed in the modern NBA. It's hard to survive with two non-shooters, let alone three.

Since he caught fire in the bubble in the 2020 postseason, Davis has made just 26% of his 3s, the worst by any player in that span with at least 400 attempts. Meanwhile, Flagg's 80% free throw percentage suggests his jump shot will come in time, but he has made just 27% of his 3s from the NBA arc so far.

Estimated plus-minus calculates that Irving improves his team's offense by about 3.8 points per 100 possessions. That's an elite individual number. But the Mavericks' offensive rating is 10.0 points below average this season, a massive gap Irving can't bridge by himself.

-- Zach Kram

Last season, the Mavericks lost in the play-in but still moved to the top spot in the draft to select Flagg. How is this year's draft class stacking up if Dallas is in the lottery again?

If there were ever a convenient time to have your own first-rounder and pivot toward securing a high draft pick, this moment would qualify.

NBA team executives are excited about the 2026 draft and the number of high-quality prospects expected in the lottery. There's uncertainty besetting the Mavericks, but there's also a time for Dallas to make calculated, big-picture decisions that can put Flagg and the franchise in a better long-term position.

Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU forward AJ Dybantsa and Duke forward Cameron Boozer, three freshmen viewed as potential future NBA All-Stars and franchise cornerstones, have headlined this class for months. Peterson is the early favorite to lead this trio, but each will have ample opportunity to vie for the top spot during the college season. Other top freshmen, such as Tennessee forward Nate Ament, North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson and Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr., are showcasing significant long-term upside.

The bevy of intriguing draft options -- a list deep enough that teams might not need to move into the lottery to land a potential star -- creates a sort of safety net, which the league hasn't seen in years, for tanking and underachieving teams.

If Dallas pivots in this direction, there are plenty of other teams already in line for favorable lottery odds. But after a disappointing 4-10 opening and what the Mavericks hope is a fresh start after moving on from Harrison, falling backward into a potential star partner for Flagg would be far from the worst outcome.

-- Jeremy Woo

Let's fast-forward to the summer. What options could Dallas have in free agency?

Ironically, the Mavericks could be in the same position as last offseason.

Though it is premature to determine where they will select in the draft, the Mavericks, once again, could have a lottery pick to join Flagg but are faced with financial restrictions regarding how they further add to the roster.

For the fourth time in five seasons, Dallas is a luxury tax team and will pay a significant penalty as a result. Because the Mavericks are now considered a repeater tax team, they are projected to pay the largest tax penalty in franchise history at $142 million. If the Mavericks finish in the lottery for a second consecutive season, can the front office sell ownership on spending $370 million (salary and tax) to keep this roster together?

More importantly, Dallas is not only over the first apron again but will likely exceed the second apron. The Mavericks are $4.6 million under the second apron when not including their 2026 first-round pick.