Survivor pool strategy: Patriots, Texans among top options in Week 11

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you've made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.

Last week, the Carolina Panthers were the most popular selection in Eliminator Challenge, despite losing 10 straight games as favorites entering the week. The Panthers were upset by the New Orleans Saints, knocking out 19% of entrants. It was the second time this season the most popular pick lost, along with the Arizona Cardinals against the Tennessee Titans in Week 5.

Overall, 44% of remaining entries were knocked out in Week 10, leaving only 3.6% remaining. Unfortunately, this column is no longer one of them. While we correctly faded the Panthers, the pivot to the Buffalo Bills failed miserably, as they lost as 8.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

While the official column entry is done, the picks will continue. Week 11 features four teams favored by at least six points, and those are the top four selections. Only one of those teams is a double-digit favorite, and that team is the top pick: the New England Patriots.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

The Patriots are by far the biggest betting favorites this week, and they are the second-biggest favorites this week according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics models. While the Jets have won two straight games, this is still a bottom-five team that traded two of its best defenders at the deadline and suffered more key injuries Sunday. Historically, big favorites Thursday night win at a higher than average rate. The Patriots have a soft remaining schedule, but this is their easiest game on paper for the rest of the season.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 87%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%

• ESPN BET line: Patriots -12.5 (-1000 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected

2. Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans)

While picking Davis Mills on the road feels risky, the Texans are actually the biggest favorite of the week according to Mike Clay's model. Houston ranks first in the NFL in defensive EPA per play, while the Titans are last on offense. That played out in the Titans' 26-0 loss in Houston in Week 4. The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL for two straight years, so they are the best fade in this contest. The Texans have one more usable week after this one, but it is a very appealing one (Week 16 vs. Raiders).

• Mike Clay chance to win: 89%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 67%

• ESPN BET line: Texans -6.5 (-340 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected

3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)

ESPN Analytics ranks the Ravens as the biggest favorites of the week, and they are the second-biggest favorites in the betting market. However, they are also projected to be even bigger favorites next week against the Jets at home. Next week, the Ravens and Seattle Seahawks look like the early optimal picks, so if you have already used the Seahawks, pushing the Ravens and using either the Patriots or Texans is optimal. If not, there is too big a drop-off between the Ravens and the Packers that the risk of losing this week isn't worth the extra win probability next week.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 72%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 78%

• ESPN BET line: Packers -14.5 (-1600 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 8% selected

4. Green Bay Packers (at New York Giants)

Jaxson Dart's injury is the biggest factor in this selection. With Dart, ESPN Analytics ranks the Giants as the 15th-best team in the NFL despite their 2-8 record. As a result, both models from ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay are much lower on the Packers' chances compared to the three teams ahead of them. With Jameis Winston expected to start, the Packers are a much better pick. The Packers have two more usable games after this week (Week 12 vs. Vikings, Week 14 vs. Bears), but neither is a solid lock. It's not the easiest spot for the Packers, flying across the country on a short week with a struggling offense, but in a shallow week of games, there is a massive drop-off in win probability after Green Bay.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 63%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 60%

• ESPN BET line: Packers -7.5 (-400 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

The Steelers are the fifth-biggest favorites of the week in the betting market, and a home game against a bad team is the time to target them. The Steelers have two viable weeks down the road (Week 15 vs. Dolphins, Week 17 at Browns), but neither game is enough reason to save them. The Bengals are 1-3 on the road, losing by nearly 18 points per game, so while they upset Pittsburgh at home in Week 7, this is a much more difficult spot. The tiebreaker between them and the Cowboys is that Pittsburgh is trending to be less popular.