FOR THE FIRST time in 32 years, the Toronto Blue Jays won the American League pennant.
They also came up just short of snapping their World Series title drought, dropping a memorable, tense, 11-inning Game 7 to the Los Angeles Dodgers at a rollicking Rogers Centre on Saturday.
To push the defending champs as far as they could be pushed, Toronto leaned on a diverse, balanced offense that ranked among MLB's best all season (fourth in runs per game) and somehow got better in the playoffs despite the unforgiving crucible created by October-style pitching staffs.
All of this from a team that just a year ago finished last in the AL East and ranked 23rd in scoring. All this from a team that, after some disappointing free agent pursuits over the past couple of years, entered the playoffs with largely the same roster as last year.
This year, at least, splashy overhauls were overrated.
"The players that are here, they have continued to get better," Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said at the Series' outset.
As the powder-blue dust settles from a magical run that saw the Blue Jays turn an entire nation on its proverbial ear, questions are turning to whether their accomplishment can be replicated. Some of it is standard: whether the latest "it" team can sustain its sudden rise. In a larger sense, though, the baseball industry is wondering what this Toronto run means.
Featuring an offense whose standout trait was an MLB-best batting average, the Blue Jays weren't just a successful team that adapted to every challenge along the way. The Blue Jays were fun, an absolute gas to watch -- for the simple reason that they put the ball in play.
They were led by one of the most fun players in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who spent the past month terrorizing opposing pitchers. He did it with an elite combination of contact and pop, something that his teammates emulated as best they could. In becoming more like Vladdy, the Toronto offense turned into a juggernaut. And, now, the Blue Jays have the offense everyone else wants to have.
They leveraged Guerrero's presence to give them the identity they sought, and they acquired and molded players to work in that approach.
"We have always felt that contact would turn into more damage," Atkins said. "This year, it did."
Identity. Aesthetics. Success. And now, a pennant. The Toronto Blue Jays nearly won it all, and as we watched Canada fall in love with them, we have to ask: Have the Blue Jays solved the strikeout era?
REALLY, THE EMPHASIS on batting average in this case is more an avatar about Toronto's style of play than about the ancient baseball statistic. Still, the Blue Jays led the majors in the category, and that was no accident. In fact, before Game 6, Blue Jays manager John Schneider mentioned it after he was asked about comments by Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell, who said the Toronto hitters had gotten lucky on what Snell felt were some pretty good pitches when they beat the lefty in Game 5.
"No, I thought we took good swings early on his fastball," Schneider said. "And I think we led the league in batting average this year."
The Blue Jays have constructed a lineup that balances the objective of making consistent contact -- even in today's hyper-strikeout context -- remarkably, without losing the ability to hit the ball out of the park and for extra bases.
The Blue Jays aren't all batting average, and it's not all about simply making contact. Toronto rated better than the MLB average in home run percentage and isolated power. The Blue Jays were also third in line-drive rate, which helps fuel the average.
During the regular season, the Blue Jays ranked 23rd in the majors in scoring 38.3% of their runs on home runs. That number rose to 48% in the playoffs, but the strikeout rate remained low.
The Blue Jays led the majors with the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) of any team over the past eight seasons -- and lowered that number to 17.1% in the postseason, the lowest by a playoff team that played at least three games since the 2014 San Francisco Giants.
The increase in home run percentage in the playoffs paired with the stunning improvement in strikeout rate unsurprisingly led to more scoring. Toronto scored 4.93 runs per game during the season, ranking fourth, but rolled up an average of 5.83 runs during its 18 postseason games, nearly 30% more than any other team.
Not just contact. Not just power. Toronto puts the ball in play, but its approach always had to be more than that if it was going to translate to the high-stakes games.
"We tried to thread the needle a little bit with that going from last year to this year," Schneider said. "Understanding that our main guys make a lot of contact, we leaned into it a little bit. And I think, at the same time, you don't want to just be playing pingpong."
The Blue Jays finished third in OPS during the regular season behind the New York Yankees and Dodgers, but with better batting averages and on-base percentages than both. With runners in scoring position, Toronto led the majors in average (.292) and BABIP (.329). Only the Kansas City Royals struck out less after counts that reached two strikes. Over and over, the Blue Jays showed an ability to adjust and adapt to what was needed and what was thrown.
The Blue Jays aren't the first successful playoff team to focus on contact -- most of the excellent Houston Astros offenses during their run of success over the past decade featured a relatively balanced attack. The champion 2018 Boston Red Sox were another team like that.
But the Blue Jays might be the most impressive version that we've seen yet, if only because the difficulties of hitting for average keep increasing with each passing year as more and more strikeout pitchers arrive in the majors.
It's worth considering the team the Dodgers vanquished one round before Toronto, the Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked third in regular-season batting average (.258) and posted the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). But whereas the Blue Jays gave Los Angeles' red-hot pitching staff far more trouble than any of the Dodgers' National League playoff opponents, the Brewers' hitters were more or less helpless during L.A.'s sweep of the National League Championship Series.
Maybe Milwaukee just ran into the Dodgers' pitching buzzsaw just as many of its hitters were struggling. Still, it is worth noting that although Milwaukee and Toronto both paired elite averages with elite contact rates, they were in fact very different offenses, one that worked in the playoffs and one that did not.
For one, the Blue Jays were the more veteran team, with an average hitter age more than one season older than the Brewers'. The bigger difference was that the Blue Jays didn't run all that much, so it was their collective extra-base ability that augmented their high-contact approach, whereas the Brewers went wild on the basepaths. Finally, the Brewers walked more -- the Blue Jays weren't a wild-swinging team but were only about league average in walk percentage.
Even though Milwaukee walked just as often during the playoffs, its lack of collective pop continued and its strikeout rate spiked, leading to a cratering in average and on-base percentage. With no one getting on base, the Brewers weren't able to get their running game going, especially against the Dodgers.
The level of pitching that playoff teams have to navigate is brutal. Teams have condensed their staffs to their nastiest hurlers. The built-in travel days give the best of those hurlers more game-free rest days. Over the past decade, during baseball's era of strikeout hyperinflation, teams have struck out 22.4% of the time during the regular season. At playoff time, that number jumps to 24.8%, even though the best offenses are generally still playing.
The Blue Jays turned that around. When a team can navigate the postseason with an offense that somehow gets better during the playoffs, the industry will notice.
IT'S ESPECIALLY NOTABLE because the majority of the position players who appeared during the World Series were with the club last season, and in many cases, have been with the organization for years.
That wasn't entirely intentional. The Blue Jays wanted to sign Juan Soto, but didn't. They wanted to sign Shohei Ohtani, but didn't. Instead, the front office crafted a revamped offensive philosophy under the guidance of a hitting staff led by coach David Popkins, who was hired just more than a year ago.
Popkins, who came to Toronto last October after parting ways with the Minnesota Twins, talked to MLB.com about his philosophy before the season.
"My philosophy is built off of creativity," Popkins said. "We're trying to become the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. We do that by practicing all of the different situations and clubs that we're going to need in the game."
By "clubs," Popkins doesn't mean teams or opponents, but golf clubs. Popkins was talking about an initiative in which, just as in golf, you pick a specific iron or wood or wedge based on the terrain and the distance to the hole, and he would craft a baseball lineup that was adaptable to the game situation and the pitcher on the mound.
This meant that, at the very least, the Blue Jays, under Popkins, were not going with the kind of all-or-nothing approach that has become too prevalent in 2020s baseball. Get a pitch and launch it. It's an easy philosophy to describe but incredibly complex to implement.
"We say all the time, 'What club do you take out of your bag?'" Schneider said. "I think last year, we had a lot of guys just hanging out with like a 7-iron the entire time. So, it's when to use that, when to use a driver. And knowing that they can make contact is kind of a little safety net for them."
Schneider and his players tout the work of Popkins and his staff. When they were hired last fall, the hitting coaches had no way to know that they were working with a championship-caliber offense because the lineup was not on that level last season.
"[Popkins] gets praise, but he probably doesn't get enough," Bo Bichette said. "The energy he brings every day is second to none. I've never experienced that from a coach, the passion. When you have that type of passion, you tend to really learn about your craft and learn what it takes. He's helped all of us for sure.
"We have a ton of talent who -- myself in particular -- didn't perform to our capabilities last year. So, that plays a part. But I think we train to be able to do anything in the batter's box."
Certainly, there is position regression in these numbers -- players bouncing back after down seasons -- but consider the following list of leaps in batting average:
Addison Barger, .197 to .243
Bichette, .225 to .311
Ernie Clement, .263 to .277
Alejandro Kirk, .253 to .282
Davis Schneider, .191 to .234
Daulton Varsho .214 to .238
Bichette, who became a free agent after the World Series, might be the litmus test for how eager teams are to follow in Toronto's footsteps. He's a career .294 hitter but doesn't run well, even when healthy, and his declining defensive metrics suggest a need to move down the defensive spectrum. But at the plate, he pairs contact with consistent extra-base ability. If you want a Blue Jays offense, why not sign one of the players most responsible for making it work?
And then there's 36-year-old George Springer, whose jump from .220 to .309 was the largest year-over-year improvement in batting average among any qualifying hitter this season. Overall, Toronto's team average went from .241 to .265, even though Anthony Santander (.175) and Andres Gimenez (.210) struggled.
Much has been made about one aspect of the Blue Jays' improved contact ability and success, and converting that contact into hits. That's bat speed, which is now tracked by Statcast and can be monitored by teams and fans.
The Blue Jays weren't elite in average bat speed, but a number of their key hitters showed marked increases over last year -- Guerrero, Clement and Barger, just to name a few. Springer was up by nearly 2 mph in his age-35 season.
Yet, all of these players controlled those faster bats, got wood on the ball and did so with authority. The formula seems blindingly obvious. If the pitchers are throwing harder, then the hitters need to swing faster. It's not remotely that simple in reality, but this is, in effect, what the Blue Jays did.
"I think the whole industry kind of started looking at that last year with more public knowledge of it, public information of it," Schneider said. "When guys were throwing as hard as they are, you got to combat it somehow, whether it's with bat speed or mechanics."
THE BLUE JAYS' modernized approach to an old-school offense succeeded at a time when many major league teams have put more emphasis on identifying, scouting and developing contact hitting. Toronto is arguably the first team of this era to break through at this level with such an approach.
Because this has already been a trend around baseball, Toronto's success might be less of a light bulb flashing in the minds of rival executives and more of a validation for what other teams have been trying to do.
"In terms of how baseball goes forward, to me, pitching is so good these days with the stuff and the velo, you have to be able to put the ball in play," Schneider said. "You have to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher. I like that we can do it in a variety of ways."
For MLB -- the entity -- it's a revelation because the approach didn't just work, it also was so much fun to watch. And, most importantly, it paid off with a pennant and a thrilling World Series performance that will be long remembered. If you needed any more evidence for that than what existed before this Fall Classic, you just had to feel the Rogers Centre vibrating on the banks of Lake Ontario as the World Series reached its historic crescendo.
They didn't win it all, but the season was a triumph for the Blue Jays, a triumph for Toronto and a triumph for all of Canada. And if more teams can be like the Blue Jays going forward, it'll be a triumph for baseball fans, too.
