One week into the season, VJ Edgecombe (+110) has officially surpassed Cooper Flagg (+115) as the favorite to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year, according to ESPN BET.
That is an amazing turnaround from where the season began, with Flagg as the prohibitive favorite and a prop available on ESPN BET of Flagg vs. the field, where the field was getting plus money.
How did we get here? And how likely is this state of events to persist over the season? Let's take a closer look.
Edgecombe's sizzing start
Edgecombe is off to an amazing start, averaging 22.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 3PG and 1.5 SPG through his first four games while helping lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a surprising 4-0 start. But more than the numbers, his on-court demeanor and sense-of-the-moment have been amazing for a rookie.
He has taken and made big shots in crunch time; he has made huge defensive plays; he has stepped up to play a whopping 40.3 MPG, including major minutes in overtimes. Just all around an incredible start.
Flagg's point guard experiment
On the flip side, the Mavericks have opened the season with an experiment: Could Flagg play full-time point guard?
That was a risk, because it's not an ideal use of Flagg's skill set. Flagg is a wing with excellent size and strength, physically more of a 3-4 combo forward than a swingman. He is a good ball handler and passer for his size, and he has a strong all-around game, but he'd be more natural as an off-ball option that creates from the elbow than someone that should be bringing the ball up and initiating the offense.
That's particularly true because the wings in the NBA tend to be smaller and quicker than Flagg, and can make life difficult for him if he's playing that role. Flagg has already faced excellent defensive wings like Stephon Castle, Scottie Barnes and the combo of Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace, and that has contributed to his slow start in the NBA.
How this will play out over the rest of the season?
This question is a bit more complicated.
Looking closer at Edgecombe: We have to expect some regression in his numbers. No one plays more than 40 minutes per game for an entire season in today's NBA, so his minutes will very likely roll back.
In addition, it is very clear from the first four games that Edgecombe's production drops when Joel Embiid is being featured. In the two games Embiid has either scored single digits or didn't play, the rookie out of Baylor has averaged 30.0 PPG. In the two games Embiid has scored at least 20 points, even while only averaging 21.5 minutes, Edgecombe has averaged 14.5 points.
Embiid's health is always a risky proposition, but if the 76ers' plan to bring him along slowly and manage his minutes pays dividends, it is likely Edgecombe's numbers will decrease -- even more so than Tyrese Maxey. And none of that even projects what happens if and when Paul George and Jared McCain return, requiring minutes and usage that are currently going to Edgecombe.
Looking closer at Flagg: It feels like Flagg has nowhere to go but up. Yes, the makeup of the Mavericks has played a part in how he's been deployed. The Mavs have two good centers, Anthony Davis at the four and P.J. Washington at the three. And with Kyrie Irving out and offseason addition D'Angelo Russell playing sparingly off the bench, Flagg has been the guy at point guard.
But this situation isn't working for Flagg, and it isn't working for the Mavericks either. They are 1-3, next to last in the Western Conference, with a -10.0 PPG scoring margin that illustrates how uncompetitive they have been.
With no inside information, I have to feel like coach Jason Kidd will eventually see the writing on the wall and move Flagg off the ball. Maybe that means starting Russell in the short term, knowing that Irving is currently expected back sometime in the new year.
Either way, if/when Flagg moves back to a more natural role I think his production will flourish. The size, skill set and moxie I saw on display in Las Vegas Summer League should translate to some big games in the NBA as well.
Betting and fantasy outlook
Betting: I don't see a lot of value in betting either Edgecombe (+110) or Flagg (+115) at essentially even money for a future that's months away.
My approach would be to wait another week or two and see if either player, most likely Edgecombe, moves more firmly into the favorite slot. If, at that time, I could get Flagg at closer to +300 or better, that could be solid value because I do expect his role to change and his production to improve at some point this season. And it could happen at a time when Edgecombe's production might wane as his team gets healthier.
Edgecombe is definitely playing like the best rookie in the league right now, but it's a long season and I would time my bets for when the value proposition is more favorable than it is at the moment.
Fantasy: The same analysis suggests that Edgecombe could potentially be a trade-high prospect in the short term. He's taking the league by storm and putting up some monster numbers in his first few games, so if he's on your roster you could probably get good value for him now.
On the flip side, Flagg's trade value is probably about as low as it is going to get, and unless/until his role changes it is unlikely that his value bounces back. But I think that bounce-back will occur, making Flagg a potentially nice candidate to trade for now.
