From Ballon d'Or favorite to Real Madrid bench: What's going on with Vini Jr.?

It was supposed to be Vincius Jnior's year. In 2024 Real Madrid's star forward had won LaLiga, and he'd won the UEFA Champions League. Next, logically, would be the Ballon d'Or.

Almost everybody thought so, a feeling most vociferously expressed by former Manchester United player Rio Ferdinand, who bellowed "Ballon d'Or!" into a microphone six times -- count them -- after Vini Jr. scored Madrid's second goal in the 2024 Champions League final.

But Vincius didn't win the 2024 Ballon d'Or. Rodri did. On Oct. 28 last year, Vincius and Real Madrid discovered that the Brazil forward was not about to cap a memorable 12 months by claiming the most prestigious individual prize in football. In fact, he was going to finish as runner-up to the more low-key Manchester City and Spain midfielder.

Madrid's reaction was to boycott the ceremony, cancelling plans for a large delegation to fly to Paris, and severing ties with organizers France Football.

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In Madrid, second-best isn't nearly enough. Vini Jr.'s reaction was one of defiance as he bombastically posted on social media: "I'll do it 10x if I have to. They aren't ready," The message was clear: If not this year, then next year. It's a matter of time.

But 2025 hasn't been Vincius' year, either. Real Madrid ended last season without a major trophy, losing a record-breaking four Clsicos to Barcelona along the way. At the FIFA Club World Cup under new coach Xabi Alonso, Vincius scored once in six games, and so far this season, Alonso hasn't always looked convinced, benching Vincius three times, including for Sunday's LaLiga win at Getafe.

Vincius, 25, is still expected to start Sunday's latest Clsico against Bara (stream LIVE on ESPN+ in the U.S.), at the Santiago Bernabu. But he'll no longer go into the game as Madrid's brightest star. That is undoubtedly Kylian Mbapp, who has taken his game to another level, scoring in 10 of the team's 11 games so far this season.

It's been a turnaround in 12 months, as the seeming inevitability of Vincius' Ballon d'Or coronation has given way to inconsistent performance levels, a diminished status in the Real Madrid team, and even doubts over his long-term future at the club.

In the 365 days before his Ballon d'Or snub -- from Oct. 28, 2023 until Oct. 27, 2024 -- Vincius made a persuasive case to be the world's best player.

He scored 18 goals in 30 LaLiga appearances in that time, a rate of 0.6 goals per game. The only players to score more LaLiga goals in that period were three pure center forwards, two of them in career-best form: Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski (28), Alexander Srloth (22, for Villarreal and Atltico Madrid) and Artem Dovbyk (19), then of Girona.

Their role is defined by goal-scoring; Vincius' game offers so much more. In those 365 days, he provided eight assists (a total surpassed by six LaLiga players) and created a healthy 49 chances, placing him 16th in the league. Arguably his greatest asset, dribbling, saw him produce a league-high 227 successful take-ons, more than Lamine Yamal (225), Nico Williams (201) and Savinho (194).

In that time, Vincius also produced a run of eye-catching performances in the Champions League. Only one player, Harry Kane, was able to top Vini Jr.'s 11 goal contributions (eight goals and three assists). In terms of wing play, no player came close to his 95 take-ons (Mbapp was next, on 70).

On April 30, 2024, he scored twice in a 2-2 semifinal draw at Bayern Munich. A month later, he scored a trophy-clinching second goal in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Later that year -- just six days before the Ballon d'Or ceremony -- he produced one of his most electrifying individual performances: scoring a second-half hat trick in another win over Dortmund, 5-2 at the Bernabu. Madrid had been 0-2 down with half an hour left, until Vincius single-handedly rewrote the script in a way few players could.

The following year -- from Oct. 28, 2024, until the present day -- has been less convincing. Vincius' scoring rate has dropped, with 11 goals in 28 LaLiga appearances, down to a rate of 0.4 goals per game. In that time, 11 LaLiga players have scored more, including Raphinha (15) and Athletic Club's Oihan Sancet (12), neither of whom are center forwards.

Vincius has registered another eight assists, the same as in the previous 12 months -- only Yamal has more, with 11 -- but three of those came in the last month, as his form improved. Vincius went 15 league games and almost six long months, between Nov. 24, 2024 and May 11, 2025, without providing a single LaLiga assist for his teammates.

Some of that dip, of course, can be attributed to Madrid's all-round underwhelming 2024-25 season, and broader issues, far beyond one player. Vincius still created 59 chances for teammates in the last year, an increase of 10 on the previous 12 months, with only six LaLiga players -- Pedri, lex Baena, Raphinha, Mbapp, Isco and Luis Milla -- creating more.

But in that troubling, 15-game run without an assist, the team dropped points in six matches, many against so-called beatable opponents: Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Atltico Madrid, Osasuna, Real Betis and Valencia. Madrid ended the season four points behind champions Barcelona.

Meanwhile, in the Champions League, Vincius bounced back from his Ballon d'Or setback with four goals in three games against AC Milan, Atalanta and RB Salzburg, before a man-of-the-match performance in Madrid's 3-2 playoff first leg win at Manchester City on Feb. 11, 2025.

But after that -- against Atltico Madrid in the round of 16, and Arsenal in the quarterfinals -- his influence was limited, with just a goal against the Gunners at the Bernabu. Only 10 players produced more Champions League goals and assists than Vincius' seven over the last year, with 17 players have created more chances.

As for this year's Ballon d'Or, the two main contenders were Yamal and Ousmane Dembl, with Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League-winning exploits earning Dembl the trophy at the gala in Paris on Sept. 22. Vincius was 16th in the vote,

After Vincius's close relationship with Carlo Ancelotti -- now his national team coach with Brazil -- the arrival of Alonso has meant a re-evaluation of his position at Real Madrid. Under Ancelotti, if Vincius was fit, he invariably started.

But Alonso left Vincius out of the starting lineup for Madrid's game at Real Oviedo on Aug. 24, and against Marseille in the Champions League on Sep. 16, a decision which -- according to a source -- was met with surprise inside the club.

In both matches, Alonso preferred Vini's compatriot Rodrygo, who has told the coach he also wants to be considered for selection on the left wing. Even when Vincius has started games under Alonso, he hasn't often stayed on the pitch.

In Alonso's first 12 games in charge in all competitions, Vincius completed 90 minutes just once. Earlier in the season, the player's entourage told ESPN they were not happy with Alonso's use of Vincius, although the situation has improved since -- playing 90 minutes in three of the last five games -- and Alonso has remained publicly supportive.

"He had a great impact," Alonso said about Vincius' latest contribution as a substitute, at Getafe on Sunday. "We talked about it this morning, that [the players] could be just as important from the start, or changing the game off the bench. And that's what happened. ... That's what it's about, everyone knowing they can be important in the role they have."

In the last month, Vincius' form has improved. He excelled in Madrid's 4-1 win at Levante on Sep. 23, contributing a goal and an assist. He scored twice in one of the team's toughest tests this season, a 3-1 win over top-four-chasing Villarreal on Oct. 4. And at Getafe, he came on in the 55th minute to transform the game, causing two opposing players -- Allan Nyom and lex Sancris -- to be sent off as they tried to cope with him.

Vincius' short-term future is clear: after a shaky start, he once again looks like an important part of a Madrid team looking to beat Barcelona to the title, and improve on last season's quarterfinal Champions League exit.

Looking further ahead, there is no such clarity. Contract talks -- with Vincius' current deal due to expire in June 2027 -- are at a standstill, sources have told ESPN.

Negotiations made some progress in May, when a possible new agreement worth a fixed 20 million a year, plus another 10m in variables, was discussed. However, the club's formal offer then failed to include those bonuses, sources said.

On that basis, Vincius' representatives did not see the need to agree to a three-year extension, when the player already earns around 17m a year after tax, including bonuses, and preferred to wait to see how this season unfolds.

However, several club sources paint a different picture, with some saying there is some unhappiness behind the scenes at the Bernabu about how talks have been handled by the player. One source claimed Madrid had believed the renewal was on track before the players' demands changed.

Madrid have remained confident that Vincius would end up renewing, but one source said that -- unless the situation changes -- it would no longer be a shock if the player sought to run down his contract, and leave on a free transfer in 2027.

The interest which emerged from the Saudi Pro League last year has not been followed up on in 2025, and Vincius' camp have since played down that possibility.