How another round of top-10 losses shakes up playoff, bowl matchups

Another week, another group of top-10 teams goes down.

No. 2 Miami, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 10 LSU all lost this weekend, with No. 4 Texas A&M surviving a close call against Arkansas.

As a result, the postseason picture has been shuffled again, with changes at the top of the College Football Playoff bracket and throughout the bowl schedule.

As with last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Let's tackle the Group of 5 champion first because there were two results that could be consequential come selection day. UNLV, the last undefeated team in the Mountain West, lost to Boise State, and Memphis suffered its first loss of the season, leaving Navy as the only remaining undefeated Group of 5 team. If Boise State ends up being the class of the Mountain West, that works out well for the American, as South Florida handled the Broncos easily to begin the year, giving the Bulls an important head-to-head win.

Then there were the big boys that went down: Miami and Ole Miss. I have both of them still in the playoff for now, but their losses obviously chipped away at both teams' margin for error. We're at a point in the season where a lot of comparisons become circular and it will remain that way for several weeks.

Schlabach: There's plenty of parity in college football this season, and it has made for some wild Saturdays in the first eight weeks of the schedule. Four more AP top-10 teams fell this past weekend: Miami, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and LSU.

The Hurricanes' 24-21 loss to Louisville at home Friday night might have been the most surprising. Just when it seemed like the U might finally be back, the Hurricanes found a way to lose a game they probably should have won. Quarterback Carson Beck threw four interceptions, and Miami committed nine penalties. I dropped the Hurricanes seven spots in my 12-team bracket.

Texas Tech played without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) and struggled to produce much offense in a 26-22 loss at Arizona State. The Sun Devils' Raleek Brown scored on a 1-yard touchdown run with 34 seconds remaining to give the Red Raiders their first loss of the season.

I dropped LSU from my bracket after its 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt. It's been a disappointing start for Tigers coach Brian Kelly, who is going to catch some heat after his program spent millions of dollars in the offseason to upgrade its roster.

Undefeated BYU, which beat rival Utah 24-21 in the Holy War, is in my bracket for the first time. I also considered Vanderbilt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Oklahoma for the last at-large spot.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Oregon came out against Rutgers on Saturday with a point to prove and ran up 42 first-half points to get over its disappointing loss to Indiana last week. The Ducks' hypothetical matchup against Alabama would be an intriguing quarterfinal (the No. 4 vs. No. 5 game is almost always going to look good on paper).

The SEC clearly has the most depth, but the conversation about the best conference would be an interesting one if the Big Ten sends three teams past the quarters. Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon all have that type of potential.

It also will be interesting to see if the committee ends up ranking teams to avoid conference rematches. It's an interesting topic because teams shouldn't have their seeding punished to avoid rematches but as a viewer, I would hope it works out that way.

Schlabach: I had three of the higher-seeded teams in the first-round games advancing to the quarterfinals.

No. 5 Georgia has shown a lot of grit in its first seven games, coming from behind again to knock off Ole Miss 43-35 at home. It might be time to add quarterback Gunner Stockton in the Heisman Trophy conversation after he accounted for five touchdowns against the Rebels.

Of course, there couldn't be a CFP without an Alabama-Georgia matchup. The Crimson Tide keeps chugging along, knocking off rival Tennessee 37-20 to win their sixth straight game since falling to Florida State in its opener.

An Ole Miss-Indiana matchup in the Orange Bowl would provide plenty of fireworks. The Hoosiers locked up coach Curt Cignetti for the foreseeable future, and I'm guessing the Rebels would like to do the same with Lane Kiffin.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: I'm going to stick with Indiana vs. Ohio State for the national title until someone else makes the case to unseat one of them.

Texas A&M is still undefeated, but its 45-42 win against Arkansas didn't inspire optimism about the Aggies' ability to make a deep playoff run. Alabama's loss to Florida State to open the year looks even stranger by the week, but there is a strong case to be made the Tide are the best team in the SEC based on its performances over the last month.

Schlabach: I think an argument could be made for eight or nine teams to reach the CFP semifinals at this point.

Ohio State has looked the most dominant since its 14-7 win against Texas in its opener. The Buckeyes steamrolled reeling Wisconsin 34-0 on Saturday, limiting the Badgers to nine first downs and 144 yards of offense. With a stingy defense and Julian Sayin playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the FBS, Ohio State is going to be difficult to beat.

The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next four games against Penn State (home), Purdue (road), UCLA (home) and Rutgers (home) before closing the regular season against rival Michigan on the road Nov. 29.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Temple
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Navy vs. NC State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Wake Forest

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Army vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Houston
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Hawai'i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Appalachian State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Tennessee

Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Florida State vs. UConn

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. USC
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona