Survivor pool strategy: Chiefs, Broncos among top options in Week 7

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you've made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.

For the fifth time in the first six weeks, at least 70% of remaining Eliminator Challenge entries survived in Week 6. After underdogs went 9-5 in Week 5, favorites bounced back to go 11-4 in Week 6, though one of those losses came when the Philadelphia Eagles fell to the New York Giants on Thursday.

Overall, 13% of all entries remain this week, including people who tailed this column after the Green Bay Packers won as the biggest favorites last weekend.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the biggest favorites according to the betting market and predictive models from both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay, making them the clear pick in Week 7. The Chiefs will be the most popular choice, but given a tricky remaining schedule and a lack of other appealing options, it's hard not to eat the chalk.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

The Chiefs are now ranked as the No. 1 team by ESPN Analytics, however, they have only two games left against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NFL after this week -- Week 18 against the Raiders and Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans -- meaning there is less value in saving them for later. With their next easy game not coming until close to Christmas, it's fine to eat the chalk and take the biggest favorites on the board.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 89%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 79%

• ESPN BET line: Chiefs -12.5 (-1000 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 29% selected

2. Denver Broncos (vs. New York Giants)

The Broncos are the second-biggest favorites this week according to both ESPN BET Sportsbook and ESPN Analytics. While the Giants are 2-1 since switching to quarterback Jaxson Dart, both wins came at home, with the only loss on the road against the struggling New Orleans Saints. The caveat with Denver is that they are also the biggest favorites in Week 10 (vs. Raiders), so burning the Broncos now could leave you exposed then.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 84%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66%

• ESPN BET line: Broncos -7.5 (-425 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 6% selected

3. New England Patriots (at Tennessee Titans)

The Titans are 4-19 since the start of last season, which cost head coach Brian Callahan his job, however there could be the possibility of a bounce-back. Since 2015, teams are 13-12 outright after replacing their coach midseason despite being underdogs in 19 of those 25 games.

The Patriots are also in an unfamiliar role in their biggest road favorite role in four years. New England also has two games left against the New York Jets, plus games against the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Giants, so there will be more chances to use them. They are still one of the biggest favorites this week, but there are plenty of reasons to be wary of this spot.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 86%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66%

• ESPN BET line: Patriots -7.5 (-360 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected

4. Chicago Bears (vs. New Orleans Saints)

Facing the No. 30 team according to ESPN Analytics at home is always a strong target in Eliminator Challenge. However, despite their three-game winning streak, the Bears still rank No. 22 themselves, and Mike Clay's model is significantly lower on the Bears than the other options on this list.

The Bears have three potential usable games down the road -- Week 9 (at Bengals), Week 10 (vs. Giants) and Week 15 (vs. Browns) -- but they aren't among the top five favorites in those weeks according to ESPN Analytics.

• Mike Clay chance to win: 69%

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%

• ESPN BET line: Bears -4.5 (-240 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)

The Bengals are the second-worst team according to ESPN Analytics, even with the quarterback move to Joe Flacco, who ranks No. 31 in Total QBR this season, one spot behind Jake Browning. A short week is tough for Flacco to gain chemistry with his new team, and the Steelers have played the Bengals well recently, covering each of the past four meetings.