Have you ever sensed something so deeply in your bones that it moved from being a hunch to unequivocal knowing?
Maybe it started as a whisper (or a drumbeat) and slowly, over time, as you listened more closely and further investigated the circumstances, a fervent assuredness began to materialize. One that you could not be dissuaded from trusting, no matter how many people looked at you sideways or doubted your thought process. Your conclusion remained indubitable. If this ship was going down, then you were going down with it, along with Jack and Rose.
Conversely, have you ever sat across from a friend who was similarly steadfast in a take that made your head spin? Not because you were compelled by passionate agreement, but because it sounded absolutely ridiculous? The sort of opinion that turned you into a "Blinking Guy" meme. One that made you question how someone you adore, and respect so fully could possibly review the data and arrive at such an out-of-pocket decision.
The first we consider conviction. The second we dub delusion. The two live dangerously close to one another, seemingly separated only by perspective and ego. But there's more to it than that. True conviction is (or should be) borne out by an exhaustive amount of research. Acquired via fact-checking and dot-connecting, not stumbled upon like bumper sticker wisdom or, worse, a persuasive Insta. Delusion, on the other hand, appears the result of rosy-colored hearsay. A destination realized out of desire, rather than veracity. Something we devotedly daydreamed.
Both are feelings, but one is founded on facts.
It is that carefully combed and considered information that compels our argument. It is the bedrock of our belief and that which urges our forward motion. Without calculable materials and measurements our stance -- and the motivations behind sharing it -- are flimsy at best and selfish at worst. One stands on business. The other isn't standing at all.
We regularly negotiate the space between these two ideas in fantasy. Each lineup tweak can be thought of as a tiny dance between well-informed confidence and Hail-Mary hope. Most of us know when we're tipping one way or the other. For example, I stubbornly shoved Jameson Williams into a few flex spots, willfully ignoring (despite fully grasping and even writing about) his lack of volume. Interchangeably, I enthusiastically started Ashton Jeanty everywhere, resolute in my knowledge of (after spending much of the summer/month/week crowing about) his potential and Week 4 matchup.
Of course, not every well-researched "start" will be blessed by 33 points. And, undoubtedly, some "sits" will still blow-up benches. That's the deliciously frustrating part of this game that keeps us coming back. The work we do is directly proportional to our surety. It informs our patience and our willingness to let go of situations (and players) that no longer serve us (or our teams). Better to lose with conviction than be led by delusion. If we happen to win, well then that's further confirmation of our process... and our person.
Setting Realistic Week 5 Expectations
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: Led by clear conviction for his talent, Patriots brass went all in on Maye, restructuring the club to create an environment of growth for the 23-year-old. With a 2-2 record, the results have been mixed, but Maye has largely delivered for virtual investors. Currently fantasy's QB4 overall (behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes), Maye is averaging 21 fantasy points per game and has finished no worse than the QB8 for three straight weeks.
The former North Carolina standout has delivered through the air and on the ground, registering 988 passing yards as well as 98 rushing yards, a feat no other player has yet accomplished. Almost unbelievably (especially given the talent at his avail), Maye is leading the league in completion percentage (74%). He's also produced nine TDs (seven passing, two rushing), with only Allen and Jackson having logged more.
Undeniably, Maye has impressed as a passer. His rushing production, however, has substantially boosted his stock. Clearing 45 rushing yards in three consecutive efforts, Maye has recorded 24 rushing attempts, tying him for fifth at the position with Justin Fields and Caleb Williams. With an average of nearly two designed runs per game (QB11), it appears that Maye's mobility is a conscious piece of the offensive plan, one that figures to be thoroughly utilized at Orchard Park on Sunday night. The Bills can't stop the run, allowing an average of 6.0 YPC to rushers while additionally having given up the most rushing yards (199) to QBs. With the Patriots being 7.5-point road dogs, Maye's challenge won't be easy, but his toil should reward gamers with QB8 numbers.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans: Here's the thing about points: They don't have to be pretty. That works out well for Collins because his production has been decidedly ugly. Collins is the only Texans player with more than 50 receiving yards in a game, and the only Houston WR with more than 32 receiving yards in a contest. Moreover, his 260 receiving yards are just 5 shy of the rest of the corps' total (265) on the season. Yuck.
The benefit of being enveloped by subpar talent, of course, is that Collins remains the go-to option. His 31 looks account for nearly 27 percent of the team's total target share. For context, his 8.3 looks per game place him 12th at the position in target share. Despite the clear obstacles, Collins has performed admirably with his chances. He's averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game over his last three outings, ranking 11th at the position since Week 2.
The matchup suggests a continued positive trajectory for the star wideout. Baltimore was just carved up by Patrick Mahomes with three Kansas City receivers posting 12 or more fantasy points in Week 4. Understanding that C.J. Stroud is no Patty Mahomes, it's worth mentioning that eight receivcers topped 10 or more fantasy when facing the Ravens so far this season. Additionally, Marlon Humphrey (calf) is expected to sit on Sunday, making Collins' job all the easier. Even in what's projected to be a (likely sloppy) low-scoring game (the total opened at 43.5 but has fallen to under 40 at ESPN BET), fantasy managers can trust Collins to post top 5 positional numbers.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints: While we're on the topic of "messy but better than mid," Olave managers can't be disappointed with his current WR27 standing, especially given his 10th-round ADP (WR88). The 25-year-old may be converting only about 60 percent of the passes Spencer Rattler sails his way, but the overall volume has been robust enough to keep Olave in healthy flex territory. Olave, unsurprisingly, leads the Saints in targets, having drawn double-digit looks (13, 10, 14) over the first three weeks of 2025. His numbers dipped slightly last Sunday, but so did the Saints' passing rate, which fell from 65% in Weeks 1-3 (third-highest) to 52 percent in Week 4.
Regardless, Olave remains the WR1 in a pass-friendly offense. His matchup at the Giants only betters his odds of delivering a top-20 fantasy WR finish. Admittedly, New York's defensive line got after Justin Herbert last weekend. As such, the squad figures to, well, rattle The Rattler this Sunday. However, the G-Men's secondary has been regularly picked on, remaining generous when tested. Not only have No. 1 WRs registered double-digit targets when facing Big Blue (10, 11, 9, 13), but each top wideout scored 18 or more fantasy points in the process. Consider Olave a solid WR2 for fantasy purposes in Week 5.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: It's been a frustratingly topsy-turvy campaign for Brown. Despite drawing 28 looks, the veteran wideout has collected just 14 receptions (WR38). Admittedly, Philly has played conservatively when leading, which has suppressed the receiving opportunities. Given the team's 4-0 record, it's also been a constant theme (and a formula that's unlikely to change).
Yet, digging a bit deeper, Jalen Hurts' accuracy has waned, as he's completed 70 of 101 passes (69.3%, QB9). His efficiency hit a season low at Tampa Bay (62.5%), where he went 0-for-8 in the second half of last week's contest (the most attempts without a completion in a half by any QB since 2008). He struggled to connect with Brown, tossing five of nine balls off-target to his No. 1 WR. That's in stark contrast to the prior three weeks, in which Hurts threw just one off-target pass (out of a total of 20) Brown's way.
It's also not an entirely new issue. Brown has registered fewer than three catches and 15 yards in four of his last eight games, including the playoffs last year. His totals have become legitimately boom or bust. That makes the 28-year-old more matchup-prone than previously anticipated. A home game versus Denver's suffocating defense, therefore, doesn't figure to be a solution for the struggling wideout (or his fantasy investors). The Broncos have allowed just two passing scores (and only one to a WR, Keenan Allen in Week 3) over four games. Given the Eagles' offensive style and the matchup, Brown can't be trusted as anything more than a WR2 in the WR18-20 range.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: There were high hopes for Benson heading into TNF last week. The second-year back had flashed behind James Conner, ripping off two runs of more than 20 yards just three efforts into 2025 and averaging nearly 6.0 yards per touch. While his debut as the team's primary ball carrier underwhelmed, there remains room for optimism. He did, after all, record double-digit touches in a contest fraught with negative game script. For context, Benson's eight carries accounted for over 40 percent of the team's rushes. Add in his five grabs (on five targets), and his opportunities made up nearly 30 percent of the Cardinals' total touches. Moreover, Benson's numbers heartily outweighed those logged by Emari Demercado (4) or Michael Carter (1).
The matchup additionally softens significantly for Benson heading into Week 5. Tennessee's defense has allowed an average of 29.5 fantasy points per game to opposing runners. Specifically, each lead back to face the Titans has managed double-digit fantasy stats.
With the Cardinals entering as 7.5-point home favorites, game flow should work in Benson's favor. Stay the course here. He's a solid RB2 (and potential buy-low candidate) heading into Sunday's action.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Cue Harry Styles because Seattle's backfield is the same as it ever was. Despite concerns regarding a foot injury, Charbonnet played second fiddle (albeit an exuberant one) to Kenneth Walker in Week 4. The Wally Pipp narrative was strong on the heels of an eye-opening Week 1. That story isn't likely to fade away after Charbs found the end zone again last Thursday night. However, a deep dive of the data should temper the tales of a looming takeover.
Walker maintained marginal control of Seattle's backfield, staying on the field for 52 percent of the team's snaps while Charbonnet was active for 45 percent of the offensive plays. Interestingly, Charbonnet ran more routes (12) than Walker (9), but the incumbent back logged seven more carries (and drew the same number of targets) than the second-year rusher. Like it or not, this is a committee, and Walker is serving more upside per touch, as evidenced by his superior efficiency metrics and his +2.6 EPA (RB19).
Both backs figure to face an uphill batter versus Tampa Bay in Week 5. The Buccaneers run defense did an admirable job of holding Saquon Barkley to just 43 rushing yards on 19 attempts last Sunday. In fact, the Bucs have allowed the second-lowest YPC (3.3) to rushers all season. Given the time share split and the matchup, Walker presents RB2 appeal while Charbs projects as a TD-dependent flex option. Continue to stash and start Charbonnet as needed, understanding that he's more of a trusted 1B than a soon-to-be-exalted 1A (as long as KW3 stays healthy).
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants: Effectively streaming the tight end position has quickly become one of my favorite pastimes within a pastime. Since Mason Taylor shined as fantasy's TE11 in Week 4 (11.5 FPTS), I'm motivated to identify this week's under-the-radar star.
Selected in the fourth round of last year's NFL draft, Johnson was lauded for his speed (4.57), separation skills and blocking ability while at Penn State. As a pro, he managed a pair of double-digit fantasy outings before his rookie campaign was cut short due to a foot injury on Thanksgiving. Now back to health, the second-year TE has drawn at least five looks in two of four games. He also happened to be on the receiving end of Jaxson Dart's first TD last Sunday.
With Malik Nabers (knee) out for the remainder of the season, Johnson's opportunities should increase. His connection with Dart also figures to work in his favor, especially when noting Dart's mobility. Since Dart can run, he's more likely to dump the ball off to Johnson when looking downfield, as opposed to throwing to fellow rookie Cam Skattebo (whom he can out-pace). Fold in the matchup at New Orleans, and Johnson is giving top-15 TE fantasy appeal. The Saints have allowed two scores to the position and two games of 10 or more fantasy points to TEs since the start of 2025. Johnson is currently available in 97% deepest of ESPN fantasy leagues.
