Week 5 of the NFL season gets underway with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the San Francisco 49ers on "Thursday Night Football." Both teams sit at 3-1 after the 49ers suffered their first loss of the season last week.
Another pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday afternoon when the Seattle Seahawks host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sunday wraps up the an AFC East matchup between the undefeated Buffalo Bills and the 2-2 New England Patriots.
"Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN) features the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off a win over the Baltimore Ravens, visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars, who handed the aforementioned 49ers their first loss.
Our team looks at the early Week 5 odds and identifies which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.
Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook
My First Bet
Kansas City Chiefs to cover -2.5 (-120) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars' opportunistic defense, which leads the NFL with 13 forced turnovers, creates some pause here. But after watching Patrick Mahomes distribute the ball to nine different players in the Week 4 win over the Baltimore Ravens, I'm going with a Chiefs team that is starting to develop an offensive identity. K.C. covers on Monday night in Jacksonville. -- Matt Bowen
New York Giants-New Orleans Saints total points UNDER 42 (-120)
The Saints haven't scored more than 21 points in a game this season. They can move the ball, sure, but they stall constantly, ranking in the bottom tier on third-down conversions and going 2-for-8 on fourth down. The Giants, meanwhile, looked more like a run-first, clock-control team with Jaxson Dart under center. They ran it 42 times last week and threw for only 89 yards. Was that matchup dependent or their identity? Both offenses lean on the ground game and settle for field goals way too often. Add in two defenses that tighten in the red zone, and it's hard to see either side running away with it. -- Pamela Maldonado
Detroit Lions-Cincinnati Bengals total points OVER 49.5 (-105)
After the rough first game against the Green Bay Packers, the Lions haven't had any trouble scoring points, averaging more than 40 points per game. Quibble with the defenses they faced, but there's nothing wrong with the Cleveland Browns' unit. There is something wrong with Cincinnati's unit. I won't say the Lions put 50 up points on their own in Week 5, but it is certainly plausible if the Bengals can score a bit and keep it interesting. I bet they will. -- Eric Karabell
Las Vegas Raiders-Indianapolis Colts total points OVER 47.5 (-120)
Both teams enter Week 5 coming off gut-wrenching losses, but they showed they can move the football in bunches, especially the Colts. Indianapolis ranks third in total yards and third in points per game, while the Raiders piled up 357 yards and scored 24 points Sunday against the Chicago Bears despite being undone by Geno Smith's turnovers. In the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, it's hard to see these teams not surpassing the total. The over has hit in five of the Colts' last seven games and in six of their last seven meetings with the Raiders. -- Eric Moody
Atlanta Falcons to MISS the playoffs (-165)
It's going to take more than a seven-point win over the Washington Commanders with Marcus Mariota at the helm for me to forget about Atlanta's 30-0 defeat to the Carolina Panthers just one week ago. That's especially true after the Panthers were handily dismantled by the New England Patriots. Yes, Michael Penix Jr. played much, much better against Washington's aging defense, putting up a 90.5 QB, a vast improvement from the 12.5 he recorded a week ago. But even with that game, this is a team that still ranks 23rd in FPI (our forward-looking strength rating metric) and has already lost to the Tampa BAy Buccaneers once, which could matter for tiebreaking purposes. I'm fading Atlanta at this price, and FPI is slightly with me; it would price this at -179. -- Seth Walder
