As the latest star-studded class enters the Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend, we can't help but look to the future and wonder which active players might receive the honor after they retire.
History suggests a whole lot of current stars will receive a plaque in Springfield one day. Each season from 1955 through 2005, between 26 and 44 players went on to become Hall of Famers, with an average of 34 per year.
With that precedent in mind, let's identify the 50 players from the 2025-26 season who are most likely to become Hall of Famers. They won't all make it -- that's why we're casting a wide net instead of zooming in on just 34 -- but these selections have the best chance of highlighting induction weekends throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
Group 1: NBA 75th Anniversary Team locks
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Stephen Curry
Anthony Davis
Kevin Durant
James Harden
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Damian Lillard*
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook**
* Lillard might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
** Westbrook is currently unsigned but seems likely to play somewhere in 2025-26.
This first group of future Hall of Famers made the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team in 2021, and if they're among the 75 best players ever, then they're guaranteed first-ballot inductees. We don't need to spend any more time explaining why these living legends will be honored in Springfield one day.
Group 2: Non-Top-75 locks
Nikola Jokic
Kyrie Irving
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson
Paul George
Jimmy Butler III
Joel Embiid
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Rudy Gobert
Had the 75th anniversary voting committee convened just a year later, Jokic probably would have made the historical roster. Now a three-time MVP, a two-time award runner-up and a Finals MVP, he's as much a Hall of Fame lock as anyone.
Irving is a nine-time All-Star, should reach 20,000 career points in another two seasons and made one of the most important shots in NBA history. That's clearly enough to push him into the Hall. His longtime Finals rivals, Green and Thompson, are easy choices, as well, because of both their contributions to a dynastic run and their individual claims as arguably the greatest defender of a generation and the second-greatest 3-point shooter ever, respectively.
With nine All-Star appearances and six All-NBA nods, George is also a lock. Every retired player in NBA history with at least six All-NBA appearances is in the Hall of Fame. With just five All-NBA selections, Butler isn't over that threshold yet, but he'll also get credit as the best player on two Finals teams.
Next up are Embiid and Gilgeous-Alexander, who are shoo-ins because of their MVPs. Derrick Rose is the only retired former MVP who's not in the Hall of Fame, and unlike Embiid and SGA, Rose never had another All-NBA season. Such a high, extended peak is a guaranteed path to Springfield.
Finally, Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards, tied for the most ever. If fellow four-time winners Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace are Hall of Famers, then Gobert surely is.
Group 3: Young stars well on their way
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum*
Anthony Edwards
Victor Wembanyama
* Tatum might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
Still in their mid-20s, Doncic and Tatum might already be locks. The former has five first team All-NBA selections, while the latter has four, plus a third team nod.
Yet for now, they're arguably just short of, say, Gilgeous-Alexander because of one hiccup apiece. For Doncic, it's the lack of a title; for Tatum, it's the uncertainty around his right Achilles injury and whether he'll return at an All-NBA level. Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame probability tool pegs Doncic's and Tatum's odds, if they retired today, at 45% and 59%, respectively. Those numbers will surely tick up over the coming years -- but Doncic and Tatum aren't quite locks yet.
The next two players in this category are younger and less accomplished but still deserve to be separated from the greater host of early-20s stars listed in a later category. Edwards is fifth in career points through age 23 (behind LeBron, Durant, Carmelo Anthony and Doncic) and has made second team All-NBA in back-to-back seasons. Only a few retired players -- Blake Griffin, Kevin Johnson, Marques Johnson and Ralph Beard (who was banned because of a point-shaving scandal) -- had two All-NBA appearances by age 23 and aren't in the Hall today.
And it might seem presumptive to include Wembanyama in this group, as he has played only 117 career games. But health permitting, presumably every NBA player, executive and fan would envision Wembanyama as a future Hall of Famer due to his expansive skill set at such a young age.
Group 4: Veterans on the bubble
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
Jrue Holiday
Kevin Love
Al Horford*
Karl-Anthony Towns
* Horford is currently unsigned, but he will likely play in 2025-26.
Although Basketball-Reference gives DeRozan a 48% chance to make the Hall of Fame given his current rsum, he might be closer to a lock than on the bubble. Only four retired players with at least 20,000 career points aren't enshrined, and they're barely over 20,000: LaMarcus Aldridge (20,558), Joe Johnson (20,407), Tom Chambers (20,049) and Antawn Jamison (20,042). As recent retirees, Aldridge and Johnson could also be elected soon.
DeRozan, meanwhile, is all the way up at 25,292 points and counting. He doesn't have much of a playoff rsum, but DeRozan's durability and counting stats should vault him to Springfield.
Guards Lowry and Holiday have very similar cases, and while their raw stats might not look Hall-worthy, they should get boosts as consummate winners and respected all-around contributors.
Love is sort of the power forward version of Lowry and Holiday, as a five-time All-Star, NBA champion and Olympic gold medalist with more than 15,000 career points. Love had much less longevity than the two guards, though -- he hasn't scored more than 1,007 points in a season since 2017-18 -- which could hurt his chances of breaking through.
Like Love, Horford is a five-time All-Star and NBA champion. Unlike Love, Horford's peak was lower, but he's still chugging along as a championship-level contributor into his late 30s. The Basketball Hall of Fame's consideration of all levels of basketball could benefit Horford a great deal, thanks to his back-to-back collegiate titles at Florida. In the one-and-done era, few players will receive a notable NCAA boost to their Hall of Fame cases -- Horford might be the exception.
Finally, Towns is half a decade younger than the rest of the players in this group, but he didn't fit neatly into any other group on this list. He certainly qualifies as a veteran, as he enters his 30s with 10 NBA seasons under his belt. On the plus side, Towns has an impressive statistical record. He's a 7-footer with a 40% career 3-point stroke, and he's one of only 22 players in league history with career averages of 20-plus points and 10-plus rebounds per game; the other 21 are all either in the Hall, still active or banned because of a point-shaving scandal (1950s star Alex Groza).
On the downside, Towns' hardware -- which consists of a Rookie of the Year trophy, five All-Star selections and three third team All-NBA nods -- isn't yet at the Hall of Fame standard, and his playoff record is lacking. Taken all together, it seems Towns needs a few more strong seasons to reach lock territory. Boosting the Knicks to the Finals would certainly help.
Group 5: 29-year-olds on the edge
Jalen Brunson
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Domantas Sabonis
Jaylen Brown
This is a fun cohort of players, all of whom will be 29 years old by the end of October, and all with one or two career All-NBA nods and a decent Hall of Fame chance depending on the rest of their primes.
Brunson is the group's newest riser, a late bloomer with All-Star selections and top-10 MVP finishes in the past two seasons. The Knicks captain has a long way to go -- he's still shy of 10,000 career points -- but he's on the upswing, and like Towns, he could make giant strides this season if he can propel the Knicks to the Finals through a shallow Eastern Conference.
Another player who could also take advantage of the East's weakness is Mitchell, who would fix the most glaring flaw on his rsum in the process: Despite incredible regular-season success and strong individual numbers in the playoffs, Mitchell has never even reached the conference finals. Still, with six consecutive All-Star appearances and a first team All-NBA nod last season, Mitchell is on strong footing for future Hall induction.
Out West, Booker has just two All-NBA selections and now finds himself in a terrible team situation, but his consistency since he entered the league as a teenager means he's 10th in career points through age 28, with 16,452. Stephon Marbury (19th place) is the only player in the top 20 who's not in the Hall or a lock to get there. Booker could end up with a DeRozan-esque Hall of Fame case in a decade, with enough points to swamp any demerits on his player page.
Sabonis could also follow a DeRozan-esque compiler path to join his father Arvydas, who made the Hall largely on the strength of his international career. The younger Sabonis is only a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA honoree, but he keeps racking up points, rebounds and assists. With 68 career triple-doubles -- 50 of them coming in his three full seasons in Sacramento -- Sabonis could reach triple-digit triple-doubles, which only six players in NBA history have achieved. (Doncic will almost certainly beat Sabonis to 100, as might Antetokounmpo.)
Brown, the final member of this group, has one uniquely compelling award on his mantel: Finals MVP, which is almost a guarantee of eventual enshrinement: Cedric Maxwell and Andre Iguodala (who hasn't had a chance to be on the ballot yet) are the only retired Finals MVPs not in the Hall.
However, most Finals MVPs have much more robust rsums overall than Brown, a one-time All-NBA honoree who has never been the best player on his own team. Like all the other players in this tier, he still has work to do -- and he'll have the opportunity to impress as the Celtics' go-to scorer this upcoming season with Tatum out due to an Achilles tear.
Group 6: Circle back in a few years
Tyrese Haliburton*
Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
Trae Young
LaMelo Ball
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Sengun
Tyrese Maxey
Stephon Castle
Amen Thompson
Cooper Flagg
* Haliburton might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
In analyzing the young players on possible Hall of Fame paths, we decided to take a "the more, the merrier" approach. It's easier to imagine players from this group making the leap to Hall worthiness than for better, more established players who are farther into their careers yet still not at that elite level.
In other words: Is a player such as Castle better today, than, say, Pascal Siakam? Definitely not. But Siakam is already 31 years old with a mere 2% chance of making the Hall given his current rsum, per Basketball-Reference, while Castle is just 20. So the reigning Rookie of the Year has a greater chance of reaching a Hall of Fame level at some point over his career.
So we're including every player who has debuted in the past half-decade and made an All-Star team, plus the youngster who appears most likely to make his first All-Star team soon (Thompson). We won't cover every player in this group in detail, but let's analyze some of the most interesting cases.
Flagg hasn't even debuted yet, but given his potential as a No. 1 pick -- let alone a No. 1 pick with such hype -- he already has a nearly 50% chance of making the Hall one day. Here is the number of future Hall of Famers selected first overall by decade:
1960s: 4
1970s: 4
1980s: 5
1990s: 4
2000s: 2 (plus LeBron, probably Griffin and maybe Rose)
The 2010s likely won't reach that historical average, with just two locks (Davis and Irving) and one coin flip case (Towns). Meanwhile, Anthony Bennett, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are Hall of Fame cross-offs, and Andrew Wiggins and Deandre Ayton have never made an All-NBA team. Neither has Williamson -- but at just 25 years old with two All-Star selections and at least the potential to dominate if he can put together a run of sustained health, it's still worth mentioning Williamson as a potential long-term Hall of Fame candidate.
Several No. 1 picks after him have better cases. We've already discussed Edwards and Wembanyama, and All-Stars Cunningham and Banchero are also on the right track early in their careers, with ample room to grow as they approach their primes.
Finally, Williams and Holmgren could be the Thompson and Green to Gilgeous-Alexander's Stephen Curry, as the Oklahoma City Thunder chase the league's newest dynasty. Williams made both the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams in his third season, and Holmgren should be an All-Defensive mainstay if he plays enough games to qualify.
With a historical average of 34 active Hall of Famers in any given season, that means an even distribution would place about one Hall of Famer on every team. But of course, the NBA doesn't have an even distribution, and a team such as the Dallas Mavericks could easily have four Hall of Famers suit up for them next season (Davis, Irving, Thompson and Flagg). What makes the Thunder so remarkable is that they'll not only have three potential future Hall of Famers at the same time, but also that they're all young, growing together and helping each other improve to become historical greats.
