Week 1 didn't just shake up the scoreboard, it rewrote the betting board. The Heisman Trophy race saw massive swings, with favorites tumbling and new names climbing, while the national title picture remains as murky as ever.
LSU made noise, Texas stumbled and Ohio State survived, but nobody separated themselves from the pack. Between rising quarterbacks, fading narratives and shifting odds, the futures market looks wide open, if you know where to buy in.
Biggest Heisman Trophy line moves after Week 1
Garrett Nussmeier: +800
Last week: (+900)
Nussmeier has officially moved to the top of the Heisman odds board after LSU's Week 1 upset win over Clemson, but I am not buying in. The market is reacting to the win, not Nussmeier's individual performance, and that matters when evaluating value on a futures ticket.
Nussmeier was efficient, completing 28 of 38 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown, but the advanced metrics show LSU didn't win this game because of its quarterback. His passing EPA per dropback finished at -0.09, meaning his performance was neutral at best from an efficiency standpoint. LSU generated just two explosive passing plays all game, which is the same as Clemson.
Instead of highlight throws or game-changing moments through the air, LSU controlled tempo, avoided mistakes and let the defense set the tone.
That defense was suffocating, holding Clemson to just 1.2 yards per rush, while forcing Cade Klubnik into long third downs. LSU didn't need him to take over because the defense controlled the game start to finish.
Pam's takeaway: This was a statement win for LSU, but it was about the team's identity rather than a Heisman-worthy performance from Nussmeier. The upside is there, but if I'm buying a Heisman ticket, I want a quarterback capable of putting the team on his back. I don't see the vision after Week 1. For now, this is a pass until he shows he can elevate LSU beyond the system.
Arch Manning: +2000
Last week: +650 (favorite)
The shift is about perception as much as it is about production. Manning finished 17-of-30 for 170 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but the deeper issue was efficiency. Through three quarters, Texas' passing attack was non-existent, and Manning struggled with timing, decision-making, and pushing the ball downfield.
But this wasn't all on him. Steve Sarkisian's conservative play-calling, red-zone misfires, and a failed QB sneak limited opportunities for "Heisman moments." The market reaction reflects skepticism that Texas' offense can showcase Manning's upside against elite defenses.
Pam's takeaway: Buying at +2000 now comes down to belief in progression. If you think Texas opens the playbook, the schedule softens and Manning's fourth-quarter flashes (105 yards and a TD) are a sign of growth, there's value in grabbing the dip. If not, the number could drift further with another rough outing. It's a volatility play: +2000 bakes in the doubt, but the path isn't closed. It's a no for me.
Carson Beck +1200 vs. LaNorris Sellers +1000
Last week: +1800 and +1600, respectively
I am pinning these two together because there is some hype on each after Week 1. Three weeks ago, I wrote about new Miami quarterback Beck as an intriguing longshot at +2000. The narrative checked every box: a Georgia transfer stepping into a quarterback-friendly system, a fresh start after injury and an ACC schedule that could put him in position to produce.
After Miami's Week 1 win over Notre Dame, his odds have shortened, while South Carolina's Sellers has also moved. If you're buying today, which quarterback has the better case?
Beck's box score won't wow anyone, 20-of-31 for 205 yards and two touchdowns but context matters. He faced a top-five Notre Dame defense that suffocated explosive plays last season, and still completed 65% of his passes with zero turnovers. Miami leaned on a balanced attack with 37 rushing attempts, and Beck executed the game plan cleanly. That's why I'm not ready to dismiss him, because against weaker ACC secondaries, the vertical passing game has room to open up. If Miami chooses to lean on him, Beck's numbers could climb quickly.
Sellers, meanwhile, flashed high-end upside against Virginia Tech: 209 passing yards on just 19 attempts, a 64-yard touchdown and a rushing score. He posted an elite 10.96 yards per dropback along with an explosive passing rate. But he also faced a far softer defense.
Pam's takeaway: If you're buying today, Sellers has the higher short-term ceiling because South Carolina's offense is already designed to showcase him. But Beck has more room for growth. His narrative, the ACC schedule and Miami's untapped offensive potential make him a smart long-term ticket ... if the Hurricanes put the ball in his hands.
National Championship Winner Odds
After Week 1, it's tough to feel confident about any national title contender. Nobody made a statement or separated. If anything, the week reinforced more questions than answers.
Ohio State (+600) preseason was my strongest lean, and nothing about Week 1 changes that but it didn't strengthen the case either. The defense looks real, holding Texas to just seven points, but the offense never found rhythm leaning on situational stops to escape. The upside is still there, but the quarterback play has to improve if they want to be the team.
Penn State (+600) was "dominant," putting up 46 points and 438 yards, but Nevada isn't a measuring stick. Drew Allar looked clean, the passing game was efficient and the defense controlled the line of scrimmage. But we didn't learn anything new.
Georgia (+750) had a 45-7 win over Marshall that was exactly what it should've been, a mismatch. They ran for nearly 240 yards and kept the playbook simple. We didn't get a true test of whether this offense can stretch the field against real defenses leaving the Bulldogs as an incomplete picture right now.
Texas (+750) was my preseason fade, and the 14-7 loss at Ohio State reinforces why. They had opportunities but couldn't finish drives, went 5-for-14 on third downs and turned it over late. The defense kept them in it, but the offense didn't show Playoff-level creativity.
LSU (+900), even in an upset win over Clemson, wasn't convincing. The run game sputtered at 3.5 yards per carry, and the passing game wasn't dynamic. Good win, but nothing dominant.
Nobody made a Week 1 statement. If you had conviction on Ohio State before the season, you can hold it, but there's no reason to jump in on anyone new at these prices. It's a wait-and-see market right now.
Betting consideration: Alabama -240 to miss the playoffs
In my Top 25 predictions, the +125 preseason fade on Alabama was sharp. At -240 now, it's still playable. This roster has true flaws (O-line, QB consistency, defensive front depth).
The most glaring issue was in the trenches. Alabama mustered just 65 rushing yards on 28 carries, averaging 2.3 per attempt, and were inefficient by EPA standards. The offensive line struggled to create movement, and without a consistent run game, the passing attack was forced into uncomfortable volume, 43 attempts at only 5.9 yards per throw.
That inefficiency tells you the receivers weren't separating and the quarterback wasn't delivering consistently downfield. To make matters worse, star receiver Ryan Williams is now in concussion protocol.
Defensively, Alabama also lost the battle up front. Florida State ripped off 214 rushing yards at 5.4 yards per carry, and that came with a rebuilt offensive line and a transfer quarterback. The Crimson Tide couldn't get off blocks, and the linebackers were slow to fill. If FSU's new-look group can push them around, what happens against Tennessee or Georgia's offensive line?
Add in the penalties -- eight for 70 yards -- and you're looking at a team that's undisciplined, inconsistent,and no longer physically dominant. Those flaws make another loss, maybe two, feel inevitable.
If you're comfortable laying juice, yes, it's still a buy but it's no longer a high-ceiling play. It's more of a bankroll anchor than a sharp edge.
