Jake Paul makes his first appearance of 2025 with a 10-round cruiserweight bout against former middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on Saturday in Anaheim, California. This will be Paul's 13th pro fight, his first against a former boxing champ other than last November's fight against the then 58-year-old Mike Tyson.
On paper, Chavez is probably the best opponent -- outside of Tyson -- Paul will have faced. But Chavez has fought only once since December 2021. And even at his peak, Chavez wasn't known for his discipline while training -- he's failed to make weight multiple times. Even during his prime (2008 to 2016), he lacked focus and showed inconsistency, failing drug tests in 2009 and 2012 and refusing to take a drug test ahead of his fight against Daniel Jacobs in December 2019, for which he was suspended indefinitely.
In 2021, Chavez lost to 46-year-old Anderson Silva, a former UFC fighter who at the time had only two pro fights in boxing (1998 and 2005). Chavez did enough against Silva to compete, making the bout interesting in spots with little conviction to win, and showed signs of fatigue early, despite being the younger and more experienced boxer. Although he won a majority decision over Sebastian Zbik in 2011 to capture the WBC middleweight title, Chavez has spent his career in the shadow of his father, Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., one of the legends of Mexican boxing. So why should anyone believe that Chavez will lock in for this fight?
Meanwhile, Paul has steadily stayed busy, fighting three times in 2024 and defeating Silva in 2022. He has taken the sport cautiously, just like any other newbie, but with a different set of rules because of his popularity and mainstream influence.
So, the real question heading into his fight isn't, "Can Paul beat Chavez?" Instead, it's, "Can Chavez beat Paul?"
How we can see Paul is becoming more of a fighter
Paul has good feet and strong legs -- he can move -- and in boxing, good footwork is one of the key skills that allows a fighter to avoid punches and create angles for offense. It's not just about knowing how to move, but also when and where to move. Anyone can be taught how to mimic the rhythm of a boxer, shifting weight and pendulum bouncing, but the real skill lies in the subtleties: recognizing angles, setting traps, understanding timing and using movement to close distance. That level of ring IQ takes years of sparring rounds and mitt work, seeing the same punches repeatedly until recognition becomes second nature.
Paul is starting to grasp these nuances.
After five years in boxing, he's become more composed and confident in the ring. He looks alert, wide-eyed, calmer in spots upon approach and comfortable leading or being second in exchanges. One part of his arsenal he's developed particularly well is his overhand right, a punch he often disguises with a lower body jab, his head tilting downward and his eyes dropping to sell the fake. Then, like a look-away pass in basketball, he launches the overhand right to the head, surprising his opponent with a heavy dose of raw power.
Deception is a huge part of boxing. Fighters and trainers know that all punches are universal. What separates them is the creativity in how those punches are set up, delivered and disguised throughout the fight. Paul has begun to evolve in this department, relying more on brains over brute force. It's safe to say Paul is embracing the "hit and don't get hit" philosophy, implementing a more technical form of boxing.
Paul still lacks the refined technique of a seasoned boxer, and his movements aren't easy on the eyes, but he can be instinctively dangerous and surprisingly strong with his awkwardness.
A fighter's punching and maneuvering mechanics are built from the ground up. I like to think of it as learning a new dance. Mastering the fundamentals of punching relies on repetition and a person's athleticism, strength, coordination and ability to learn and adapt. After 12 pro fights, we know what Paul brings to the table. He has earned respect from peers in the sport for his drive and his impact outside the ring, elevating women's boxing and creating opportunities for fighters on his own cards. From what I hear, he's disciplined in the gym, grinding daily. He has shown a willingness to do the work inside and outside the ring.
Where Chavez has the advantage
Chavez carries the poise of a seasoned veteran raised in boxing royalty. His presence in the ring exudes confidence, not from a tough guy standpoint but from a muscle memory aspect. He was practically born in the gym and has been involved in years of high-level competition. That should mean something. Chavez's ring IQ is evident in the way he moves. His lateral footwork isn't flashy but it's instinctive. He knows his way around the ring, and there's a certain calmness in his aggression.
In July 2024, Chavez returned after an absence of almost three years. He won a unanimous decision in a six-round cruiserweight (200 pounds) bout against former UFC fighter Uriah Hall. This fight may have boosted his confidence and helped shake off some ring rust.
Chavez fights behind a high, tight guard, leaning forward with his weight on the front foot. It's a classic Mexican boxing stance, one that draws in opponents just enough to be countered or have their offense smothered. His go-to weapon is a lead left hook, which he often throws to the body early in a fight, just as his father did. That can sap an opponent's stamina.
Chavez understands the fundamentals of the game -- jab, move, slip -- and his experience gives him an edge over someone like Paul, whose boxing career is still developing.
Paul's improved left hook ...
Keep your eyes on Paul's footwork and reflexes; they'll be front and center. Expect him to work behind a varied jab, changing levels and rhythm. He will use in-and-out movements, exploding into range to land shots, uppercuts, crosses, and some combinations, then quickly bouncing out to avoid Chavez's counters. It's a hit-and-don't-get-hit strategy that relies on hand, foot speed and timing.
Watch for Paul to initiate clinches throughout, not just to rest but to disrupt Chavez's rhythm, smother his forward momentum and neutralize his offense, especially when Paul isn't ready to punch. One of Paul's better tools is his lead left hook; he'll use it to do damage and to pivot or step around, repositioning himself off the centerline. This lateral movement could be key in avoiding Chavez's power shots -- and his left hook. As the boxing saying goes, never hook with a hooker, so Paul must be selective when he deploys his improving lead left hook.
Don't forget to also pay attention to Paul's jab; it's not just about speed but also variation. He'll use body feints to chop up his attack patterns and keep Chavez guessing. And when Chavez loads up on his dangerous left hook, expect Paul to hold the phone (keeping that right guard high to protect the chin).
Again, Paul's footwork will be sharp early on, when both fighters are full of adrenaline and energy. But watch closely as the fight progresses into what fighters call "the comfort zone," when the pace settles, breathing slows and each man starts reading the other more clearly. As Chavez begins to fade and search for a second wind, that's when Paul will look to press the gas. Expect moments of hard exchanges, back-and-forth banter and maybe even some dirty boxing from Paul.
... vs. Chavez's established left hook
Don't be surprised to see Chavez glowing with confidence to start the fight, maybe even a little overzealous, because in his mind, he's sharing the ring with a YouTuber, not a seasoned pro.
Chavez will likely start slow, like a veteran does. He'll take the first round or two to size Paul up, to figure out what he knows and, more importantly, what he doesn't. Expect him to test Paul's power early, catching a few of his shots on the gloves to feel the heaviness of the punch. One of Chavez's favorite setups is his jab to the body -- the stab jab. You'll see it come in often and deliberately to the midsection. A punch thrown not just to score points, but for multiple purposes. Chavez uses it to lay a trap, going low first, then coming high with something much more dangerous. It could force Paul to drop his guard to defend against it. No fighter likes getting stabbed with a punch in the gut, and Chavez knows that. It will also test Paul's ring IQ. How he defends the stab jab will say a lot. Does he stay tall or drop his level? Does he step back out of range to make it miss? Or does he reach down to parry the jab, which will be concerning?
Watch if Paul brings his hands down or overextends his guard low to block the stab jab. That's when Chavez will launch his favorite punch, a wicked left hook. It's fast, automatic and effective, and if Paul doesn't see it coming, we could see him looking up at the lights from the canvas.
How might the fight play out?
Paul will look to impose his size and physicality as the natural 200-pounder. Expect him to press forward in spurts, trying to disrupt Chavez's rhythm and push him off balance with heavy offensive combinations. Chavez sometimes breaks his base when he's under pressure, putting himself out of position. Paul will test this defect in Chavez's game, especially as the rounds wear on and Chavez begins to fade.
Stamina will be a key factor. I want to think Paul has improved his conditioning thanks to back-to-back training camps and a knowledgeable team. On the other hand, Chavez has struggled with consistency and conditioning in the past, and carrying extra weight (he won his world title fighting at 160 pounds) could affect his energy in this 10-round affair at 200 pounds. Although this is Paul's first 10-round contest, the physique difference between the two fighters will be apparent. Paul has a leaner, more athletic frame, while Chavez may look slightly softer around the stomach.
But appearances don't win fights; experience, skill, strategy, stamina and the will to win do. Chavez has a path to victory, without a doubt. He can keep the fight at mid-range, invest in the body early and answer Paul's offense with his own offense. He can make Paul uncomfortable and force him to make mistakes, as Paul struggles in advancing from mid-range to inside and is often quick to tie up his opponent to halt momentum and preserve energy. But Paul's youth, athleticism and improved comprehension of when to box and when to brawl make him dangerous, especially if he can change gears with his movement and cadence while punching and applying pressure at the correct times.
Who wins?
I see this as a matchup of two fighters on different boxing journeys: one born into the sport and taking it for granted, the other finding a niche in the sport by playing his cards right while grinding under the spotlight. I believe the difference in experience, Chavez's natural feel for the ring against Paul's ruthless, undeniable drive to prove himself could be the subtle decider of who wins. So, can Chavez beat Paul? Absolutely. But I don't think he will.
