The 2024-25 NBA season has long had the feel of a transitional year for the league, full of different diverging possibilities.
For a league defined by dynasties more than any other, we just came off a stretch with six different champions in six years, only the second such instance in NBA history. And this season offered contradictory evidence for what might come next -- whether it be more of the same parity, a return to the old era of hegemons, or some third option that defies easy classification.
For instance, we're coming off a top-heavy regular season in which the No. 1 team in net rating, the Oklahoma City Thunder, put up the second-best figure (plus-12.8) since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger -- trailing only Michael Jordan's 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Plus, two more teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics (with plus-9.5 each), ranked among the top 20 in modern history. That wouldn't seem to suggest we were in an era of parity at all ... except for the fact that two of those teams (OKC and Cleveland) would possibly set an unprecedented run of seven champs in as many seasons.
The Thunder are also among the league's youngest teams (average roster age of 24.8), so if they win, there could be less parity down the line after that potential 7-for-7 streak of different teams. Meanwhile, if the Celtics win, it would be the first case of back-to-back NBA champs since the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors -- one of the greatest dynasties in league history.
So even if the list is narrowed down to this year's three dominant regular-season teams, it could be argued that this season alone could potentially lead us into many different versions of an NBA future, depending on who wins.
And that's without getting into all of the other teams who have at least some chance to win the 2024-25 title -- each of which has its own potential lesson about where the league is heading.
Let's run through the dominant NBA narratives we'll hear if each team, ranked in order of my title odds with at least a 1% chance (after rounding), wins the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
Jump to a team:
OKC | BOS | CLE | MIN
GSW | DEN | IND
NYK | LAC | HOU
Oklahoma City Thunder
The dominant narrative: Hope you enjoyed the era of unique champs while it lasted -- a dynasty just started.
As previously mentioned, the Thunder could potentially extend the league's streak of different champions to seven consecutive seasons, dating back to the Toronto Raptors' Finals victory in 2018-19. That would mark the first time ever that the NBA featured seven unique champs in a seven-year span, surely representing one of the weirdest eras of league history. And yet, the prevailing opinion in the event of an OKC Finals win would not be marveling at this recent parity, so much as speculating that we might now be in a new era -- one of a burgeoning Thunder dynasty.
In addition to their historic net rating, they also have the presumptive league MVP (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), plus a number of other building blocks (including Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Isaiah Hartenstein) who are all age 26 or younger. Oklahoma City would serve as proof of concept for the ability to build the NBA's version of a championship machine through years of careful asset-stockpiling, scouting, drafting and player development, with the clear implication that their reign is only just beginning.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: High
The Thunder leapfrogged the Celtics in the betting odds to win the Finals late in the regular season, and they have the best probability to win (43%) according to my forecast model, which combines Las Vegas odds with statistical power ratings. That's no guarantee, but even their biggest drawback a year ago -- a lack of playoff experience -- is less of an issue now.
Boston Celtics
The dominant narrative: Back-to-back titles are SO back.
From 1986-87, when the Los Angeles Lakers won the first of what would be consecutive titles, to the Warriors' second straight win in 2017-18, we've seen 21 of the NBA's 32 total championships (or 66%) won as part of a multiyear run. Two-peats -- if not three-peats -- were basically the norm in this era of NBA history.
So it has been jarring to see zero back-to-back winners in the past six postseasons, the longest such streak since none of the six champs from 2002-03 to 2007-08 was part of a multiyear title run. A repeat win by the Celtics this season, however, would bring that trend to a crashing halt, giving the most decorated franchise in NBA history what would somehow only be its first set of back-to-back titles since 1967-68 and 1968-69. And certainly, the dynasty talk would heat up here as well: Boston has missed the conference finals just twice since 2016, it is already only the fifth post-merger team to post a plus-9.0 net rating in back-to-back seasons, and it would be coming off a repeat championship with its Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown core.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: High
In addition to Oklahoma City, Boston is by far the most likely other team to win the 2025 NBA title, with a 31% chance in my forecast model. The Celtics are the defending champs, they have by far the most playoff experience of any playoff team, and they still probably have the most well-rounded seven-man rotation in the field.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The dominant narrative: Rumors of parity's demise are greatly exaggerated.
While the Celtics could definitively end the era of NBA parity, and the Thunder would only technically extend it before what most would anticipate to be another prolonged run, the Cavaliers are the potential champ most likely to provide a bridge to even more unique champs down the road.
Donovan Mitchell is locked in for at least another two seasons after 2024-25 -- as are Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland -- but the Cavs are an older-than-average team (unlike OKC) with an average roster age of 26.6, and they don't have as long a track record of elite play as the Celtics or Thunder. (They ranked just 13th in net rating and lost in Round 2 to Boston in five games last year.)
Even if Cleveland wins this year's title, it would probably not be the favorite to win in the next-day odds for 2026, which then sets the league up to potentially run its streak of unique champs to at least eight next year -- an absolutely unprecedented stretch of different winners in NBA history.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate
Although they won 64 games, second to only Oklahoma City (68) during the regular season, the Cavs are in a zone of championship probability well below the Thunder and Celtics -- but also well above any other team in the field. That means they have just enough chance of winning this season to make it a realistic possibility, but they're not strong enough favorites to also be likely repeat candidates in future seasons.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The dominant narrative: The triumph of team-building.
Minnesota is another team that would extend the league's streak of different winners to seven seasons; the Timberwolves are currently riding a 36-year NBA title drought, tied with Orlando for the sixth longest among teams that have never won a championship before. A Wolves win would give hope to all of the winless franchises looking to finally break through after decades of frustration.
But they would also be lauded for their bold team-building gambits coming to fruition. Just five years ago, Minnesota went 19-45 with Karl-Anthony Towns and little else around him. But after taking Anthony Edwards No. 1 in the 2020 draft, the team -- eventually molded by current president of basketball operations Tim Connelly -- executed a series of trades for Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Mike Conley. The moves had their doubters (especially the one that jettisoned Towns), but there is no doubt that the Wolves zeroed in on a highly effective all-around roster, which ranked among the top eight on both offense and defense.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate
Minnesota pulled off a first-round upset, ousting the Lakers in five games, and it might well be favored in the second round against the Houston-Golden State winner as well. Any team with a real path to the conference finals has a decent chance for its narrative to be heard, but the Thunder remain heavy favorites to come out of the West.
Golden State Warriors
The dominant narrative: The window is never closed for an all-time legend.
Perhaps fitting for a dynasty that few thought could get off the ground in the first place, the Stephen Curry-era Warriors have seemingly been brushed off countless times, only to return very much alive time and time again. At age 37, Curry's skills remain as timeless as ever -- and so long as that is true, Golden State will always have a chance.
If the Warriors cash in on a title in 2025, there will be a personal angle for Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler III, each of whom plays with a perpetual chip on his shoulder. But there will also be a lesson for any front office lucky enough to employ a legend of Curry's status: Never, ever give up on him. Even if it takes loading and reloading around him multiple times, another special run is always possible.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate to low
Great as Curry is, the Warriors have a tough path to get out of the West, with Minnesota and then Oklahoma City likely standing in their way if they advance past the Rockets. Add in Butler's status -- he got back on the court for Game 4 against Houston after suffering a pelvis contusion earlier in the series, but they need him to be 100% -- and Golden State has an uphill climb to add another title to its collection this postseason. Again, though, Curry gives them a chance.
Denver Nuggets
The dominant narrative: Sometimes, you have to shake things up at the last minute.
If the Nuggets win the title, it will undoubtedly be the finest testament yet to the all-time greatness of Nikola Joki, carrying this particular group on a championship run. However, even greater vindication would belong to Denver ownership after making the unprecedented decision to fire former title-winning coach Michael Malone just days before the playoffs began. Malone had enjoyed consistent success in Denver, and although his relationship with former general manager Calvin Booth had reportedly soured, the team still ranked among the top 10 in net rating this season.
Teams usually bury the impulse to make such a rash move on the eve of the postseason, but the Nuggets didn't -- and a subsequent title run would give plenty of other teams the permission structure to make drastic changes anytime they feel like it, regardless of team performance or phase of the season.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Very low
The Nuggets are locked in a 3-2 battle with the Clippers in Round 1, but they've also been outscored by more than 8 points per game in the series and will have to face Oklahoma City even if they advance. We'll never know whether their season was doomed if they'd kept Malone (it probably was), but this particular data point probably will not be used in future defenses of firing a coach in early-to-mid April.
Indiana Pacers
The dominant narrative: (Non-horrendous) defense wins championships.
As one of two remaining former ABA teams in the NBA to not win a title (along with the Brooklyn Nets franchise that originally hailed from New Jersey), and the one with more all-time playoff wins -- but fewer Finals appearances -- to boot, one of the big narratives of a Pacers championship would involve overcoming the franchise's history of perpetually being good but not quite good enough. (Since the merger, only the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz have won more playoff games without a title.)
But for the purposes of copycats across the league, Indiana's story might also be about improved balance, and the need for offensive teams to improve on defense to truly succeed. During their breakout last season, the Pacers were one of the most comically lopsided teams in NBA history, ranking No. 2 on offense but No. 24 on defense. It was a recipe still good enough to make the East finals, but clearly Indiana was seeking better balance this season -- and the team achieved it, falling a bit to No. 9 on offense but improving markedly to No. 13 on defense.
If being above-average on both sides of the ball is preferable to being elite on one but bad on the other, then the Pacers could put on a clinic in how shifting toward balance can be the final piece to a championship puzzle.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
The Pacers handled Milwaukee in Round 1, but all that earns them is a second-round date with the mighty Cavaliers ... and then most likely the even mightier Celtics in the East finals, which puts a ceiling on their odds.
New York Knicks
The dominant narrative: New York is the Mecca of basketball again.
There are a lot of stories that could (and surely would) be told about the 2024-25 Knicks if they end up winning the title. One of them vindicates coach Tom Thibodeau for playing his core starters -- Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart -- an astronomical number of minutes during the regular season, usually a ticket for playoff exhaustion (and disappointment, when every other team starts playing its best players the same amount you've been playing them all season). Another involves how that core was even built, the total opposite of a homegrown success story.
But in the bigger picture, a Knicks win would also cement New York City as the basketball capital of the world that it usually thinks of itself as, whether true or not in recent years. Roughly six months after the WNBA's Liberty won their title as NYC's first major pro sports champions since 2011, a Knicks win as well would make New York the undisputed center of the hoops universe again.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
As excited as New York always gets when the Knicks are good, they still will have to finish off Detroit in a series marked by officiating controversies, then beat what will almost certainly be the Celtics and then the Cavs -- or perhaps worse yet, the Pacers, who have the Knicks' number like no other opponent.
LA Clippers
The dominant narrative: You all laughed -- but who's laughing now?
The Kawhi Leonard-Paul George pairing, formed in 2019, was supposed to provide enough star power to end the franchise's long history of playoff disappointment. Instead? The two were seldom healthy together and made it past Round 2 just once, never making an NBA Finals. The addition of James Harden in 2023 was widely mocked for bringing in yet another big name who couldn't be relied on in the playoffs -- and then George left for Philadelphia following another first-round defeat.
The resulting Clippers seemed to be headed nowhere, particularly after Leonard was injured again and missed most of the first half of the season. But it's getting tougher to laugh at the Clippers with vintage Playoff Kawhi enjoying a renaissance and the rest of the team clicking as well. If they win a title, it would be the ultimate vengeance against the rest of the NBA for writing this team off.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
Though the Clippers have held their own against Denver with Leonard channeling his old Finals MVP days, they'll now have to survive a seven-game series -- and a rested Thunder team is waiting on the other side even if they do make it to Round 2. In other words, the basketball world probably won't have to find a way to mentally process the shocking reality of a Clippers title this summer. (Probably.)
Houston Rockets
The dominant narrative: There's a post-tanking blueprint.
Similar to the Wolves and Knicks, one of the main storylines of a Rockets championship would be the team-building success of general manager Rafael Stone and Houston's front office.
The Rockets were one of the most chaotic teams in basketball a few years ago -- the NBA's youngest, sloppiest and least competitive squad in the immediate post-Harden era. But instead of following a typical slow-burn rebuild, Houston fast-tracked its return to respectability by blending savvy veteran pickups (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams) with a defensive-minded coach (Ime Udoka) and a rapidly improving young core (Alperen engn, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr.).
The result was a rare blueprint for exiting the tank: Houston built the league's fourth-best defense and developed one of the NBA's strongest young foundations alongside its veteran leadership. Winning a championship would validate the Rockets' bold strategy -- that the path back to contention can be jump-started with the right combination of toughness, coaching and player development.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Very low ... for now
Before the Rockets can even think about the story of their championship build, they'll need to mount a comeback against Curry and the Warriors -- no easy task. But the upside is that we probably will hear a version of this story in future seasons, given the Rockets' potential.
